NASDAQ$SNCY

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sun Country Airlines reported mixed results with a net loss but a strong adjusted operating margin.

Sun Country Airlines reported a net loss of $0.6 million for Q4 2021, but achieved an adjusted operating income of $15 million, representing a 9% adjusted operating margin. The company faced challenges including weather conditions, staffing outages, and a technology issue, but saw a rebound in bookings starting in mid-January. Full year adjusted net profit was $20 million, or $0.33 per share.

  • Q4 GAAP diluted EPS was ($0.01), while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.10.
  • Q4 GAAP operating income was $11 million, while adjusted operating income was $15 million.
  • Total revenue for Q4 2021 was $173 million, 5% higher than Q4 2019.
  • The company's charter service revenue was $39 million, up 15% from Q3 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$173M

Previous: $108M+60.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.10

Previous: -$0.17+158.8%
Adjusted CASM

$6.91

No prior period
Ancillary Revenue Per Passenger

$44.05

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$5.32M

Previous: $1.99M+167.0%
Free Cash Flow

$37.3M

Previous: -$5.17M+821.5%
Net Income

-$600K

Previous: -$8.04M+92.5%
Operating Income

$11M

Previous: -$4.43M+348.4%
Gross Profit

$38.1M

Previous: $13.1M+189.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$309M

Previous: $62M+398.7%
Total Assets

$1.38B

Previous: $1.05B+31.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$985K

Previous: $857K+14.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Sun Country Airlines · Revenue · Quarterly

$173M

Q4 2021+60.1%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 6 of 9 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sun Country Airlines · $249M total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Scheduled Service
    $96.5M-5.6%
  • Ancillary
    $70.4M+40.1%
  • Charter Service
    $47.4M+10.6%
  • Cargo
    $26.1M+10.0%
  • Other
    $8.46M+219.0%

Forward guidance

The company did not provide specific financial guidance for Q1 2022 beyond stating they've committed to take delivery of two more aircraft in first quarter 2022 and has executed LOI’s for an additional 5 aircraft for delivery in 2022. The Company expects to add eight or more total aircraft to its passenger fleet this year.

Tailwinds

  • Beginning in mid-January, the company has seen a very strong rebound in bookings.
  • The Major League Soccer and Caesars agreements signed in 2021 will ramp up meaningfully in early 2022.
  • The company continues to grow sensibly through the recovery.
  • Charter activity continues to recover as block hours have grown sequentially for three consecutive quarters from the second to the fourth quarter of 2021.
  • Sun Country has committed to take delivery of two more aircraft in first quarter 2022 and has executed LOI’s for an additional 5 aircraft for delivery in 2022.

Headwinds

  • Operations were challenged by harsh weather conditions and staffing outages driven by the Omicron variant.
  • The company faced a technology issue that impacted them during the peak Christmas holiday travel period.
  • Demand was modestly softer than expected in December, which the company believes to have been due to the Omicron variant.
  • Fourth quarter total available seat miles (“ASM”) decreased versus the third quarter of 2021 by 6% as a reflection of the seasonality of leisure demand and are still 12% lower than the fourth quarter of 2019 due largely to ongoing efforts to match supply to COVID-reduced demand levels.
  • Charter revenue was down 21% versus the fourth quarter of 2019 due to continued weakness in military flying.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

17 / 26 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-22.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+6.8%
Q4 2025+12.6%+7.6%-16.3%
Q3 2025+6.5%+12.4%+29.1%
Q2 2025-11.0%-8.9%+14.3%
Q1 2025+0.3%+14.7%+18.2%
Q4 2024-0.9%+8.3%-8.0%
Q3 2024+11.7%+14.6%+14.4%
Q2 2024-15.8%-18.0%-16.2%
Q1 2024-19.3%-18.1%-25.3%
Q4 2023+6.3%+1.0%+8.8%
Q3 2023-3.6%-2.9%+32.3%
Q2 2023-22.0%-24.8%-29.1%
Q1 2023+8.1%-2.6%+0.7%
Q4 2022+12.5%+13.1%+8.3%
Q3 2022+13.3%+16.3%+24.1%
Q2 2022-10.9%-4.9%+0.4%
Q1 2022-11.5%-15.8%-26.2%
Q4 2021+4.2%+8.6%-7.9%
Q3 2020+1.0%+8.2%-15.6%
Q3 2021+1.0%+8.2%-15.6%
Q2 2020+0.4%-4.8%-4.3%
Q2 2021+0.4%-4.8%-4.3%
Q1 2020+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q4 2020+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q4 2019+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q1 2021-4.5%-2.0%-3.5%
Q1 2019
Q1 2018

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