NASDAQ$SNCY

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sun Country Airlines reported its highest third quarter revenue on record, driven by growth in charter and cargo businesses, which offset lower scheduled service revenue. The company achieved its ninth consecutive profitable quarter.

Sun Country Airlines reported a profitable third quarter, achieving record third-quarter revenue of $249 million. The company's diversified business model, with strong growth in charter and cargo, helped offset weaker scheduled service demand. GAAP EPS was $0.04, and adjusted EPS was $0.06. The company's GAAP operating margin was 5.0%, and the adjusted operating margin was 5.6%.

  • Achieved ninth consecutive profitable quarter.
  • Reported highest third quarter total revenue on record.
  • Charter and cargo businesses showed robust growth, offsetting lower scheduled service revenue.
  • GAAP operating margin of 5.0% and adjusted operating margin of 5.6% exceeded the top end of guidance.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$249M

Previous: $249M+0.2%
EPS

$0.04

Previous: $0.14-71.4%
Scheduled Service TRASM

$10.42

No prior period
Adjusted CASM

$8.04

No prior period
Total Revenue Per ASM

$11.15

Previous: $12.11-7.9%
Fuel Cost Per Gallon

$2.69

Previous: $3.19-15.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$42.6M

Previous: -$211M+79.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$40.3M

Previous: -$203M+80.2%
Net Income

$2.34M

Previous: $7.59M-69.1%
Operating Income

$12.4M

Previous: $19M-34.9%
Gross Profit

-$70.7M

Previous: -$75.2M+5.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$56.8M

Previous: $27M+110.6%
Total Assets

$1.61B

Previous: $1.6B+0.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Sun Country Airlines · Revenue · Quarterly

$249M

Q3 2024+0.2%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sun Country Airlines · $249M total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Scheduled Service
    $96.5M-5.6%
  • Ancillary
    $70.4M+40.1%
  • Charter Service
    $47.4M+10.6%
  • Cargo
    $26.1M+10.0%
  • Other
    $8.46M+219.0%

Forward guidance

Sun Country Airlines provided guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024, with total revenue expected to be between $250 million and $260 million, representing a 2% to 6% increase compared to Q4 2023. The operating income margin is projected to be between 7% and 9%.

Tailwinds

  • Total revenue is expected to be between $250 million and $260 million, a 2% to 6% increase compared to Q4 2023.
  • Operating income margin is projected to be between 7% and 9%.
  • Total system block hours are estimated to be between 36.5 and 37.5 thousand, a 2% to 5% increase year-over-year.
  • Strength in charter and cargo businesses is expected to persist.
  • Improving trends in scheduled service unit revenue are anticipated in the fourth quarter and into 2025.

Headwinds

  • Economic fuel cost per gallon is estimated at $2.47, a 20% decrease compared to Q4 2023.
  • Effective tax rate is projected to be 23%.
  • Domestic market continues to be impacted by overcapacity.
  • Unit revenue was lower than last year in the third quarter.
  • Cargo block hours declined in the third quarter by 3.6% year-over-year due to scheduled heavy maintenance events and the impact of the hurricanes on cargo operations in the Southeast.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

65%

17 / 26 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-22.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+6.8%
Q4 2025+12.6%+7.6%-16.3%
Q3 2025+6.5%+12.4%+29.1%
Q2 2025-11.0%-8.9%+14.3%
Q1 2025+0.3%+14.7%+18.2%
Q4 2024-0.9%+8.3%-8.0%
Q3 2024+11.7%+14.6%+14.4%
Q2 2024-15.8%-18.0%-16.2%
Q1 2024-19.3%-18.1%-25.3%
Q4 2023+6.3%+1.0%+8.8%
Q3 2023-3.6%-2.9%+32.3%
Q2 2023-22.0%-24.8%-29.1%
Q1 2023+8.1%-2.6%+0.7%
Q4 2022+12.5%+13.1%+8.3%
Q3 2022+13.3%+16.3%+24.1%
Q2 2022-10.9%-4.9%+0.4%
Q1 2022-11.5%-15.8%-26.2%
Q4 2021+4.2%+8.6%-7.9%
Q3 2020+1.0%+8.2%-15.6%
Q3 2021+1.0%+8.2%-15.6%
Q2 2020+0.4%-4.8%-4.3%
Q2 2021+0.4%-4.8%-4.3%
Q1 2020+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q4 2020+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q4 2019+1.9%-5.9%-6.5%
Q1 2021-4.5%-2.0%-3.5%
Q1 2019
Q1 2018

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