NASDAQ$SNBR

Sleep Number Corporation · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record results driven by consumer response to 360® smart beds.

Sleep Number Corporation reported record fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 results. Net sales increased by 7% to $441 million, and earnings per diluted share were $0.82.

  • Full-year net sales up 11% to a record $1.7 billion
  • Full-year diluted EPS up 41% to $2.70
  • Net sales increased 7% to $441 million
  • Earnings per diluted share of $0.82

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$441M

Previous: $412M+7.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.82

Previous: $0.58+41.4%
Gross Profit Margin

62.6%

Previous: 61.0%+2.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$53.1M

Previous: $54.6M-2.8%
Capital Expenditures

$12.5M

Previous: $11.5M+8.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$13.2M

Previous: -$14.4M+8.7%
Net Income

$24.1M

Previous: $27M-10.7%
Operating Income

$33M

Previous: $38.1M-13.5%
Gross Profit

$276M

Previous: $251M+10.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.59M

Previous: $1.61M-1.2%
Total Assets

$806M

Previous: $470M+71.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.62M

Previous: $1.31M+251.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Sleep Number · Revenue · Quarterly

$441M

Q4 2019+7.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sleep Number · $440M total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Retail Stores
    $401M
  • Online, Phone, Chat and Other
    $39.7M

Forward guidance

The company expects to generate full-year 2020 earnings per diluted share of $3.10, a 15% increase versus full-year 2019 earnings per diluted share of $2.70. The outlook assumes high-single digit net sales growth for 2020, including the benefit of an extra fiscal week. The outlook assumes an estimated effective income tax rate of approximately 22% (including an estimated $3 million of excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation), compared to 18.6% for 2019. The company anticipates 2020 capital expenditures to be approximately $60 million.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year 2020 earnings per diluted share of $3.10
  • 15% increase versus full-year 2019 earnings per diluted share of $2.70
  • High-single digit net sales growth for 2020
  • Benefit of an extra fiscal week
  • Capital expenditures to be approximately $60 million

Headwinds

  • Estimated effective income tax rate of approximately 22%
  • Compared to 18.6% for 2019
  • Subject to certain risks and uncertainties including, among others, such factors as current and future general and industry economic trends and consumer confidence
  • The effectiveness of our marketing messages
  • The efficiency of our advertising and promotional efforts

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.1%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

31 / 63 earnings

Positive

+38.8%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-41.9%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-22.4%-37.1%
Q4 2025-5.5%-18.3%-61.6%
Q3 2025-1.3%-0.4%-7.6%
Q1 2025+6.7%+18.6%+40.2%
Q4 2024-41.9%-45.6%-59.4%
Q3 2024+2.6%-1.9%+12.4%
Q2 2024+24.1%+6.6%+33.4%
Q1 2024-2.5%-6.6%-7.6%
Q4 2023+28.3%+45.4%+17.9%
Q3 2023-30.1%-39.4%-10.1%
Q2 2023-29.8%-29.6%-42.5%
Q1 2023-10.1%-10.9%-25.6%
Q4 2022+22.4%-12.2%-14.0%
Q3 2022-21.4%-22.8%-16.4%
Q2 2022+21.1%+31.8%+17.2%
Q1 2022-13.0%-14.5%-16.8%
Q4 2021+1.4%+5.0%-8.2%
Q3 2021+0.6%-0.4%-11.3%
Q2 2021-8.2%-12.1%-13.7%
Q1 2021-8.2%-4.7%-16.0%
Q3 2020+8.6%+7.0%+13.0%
Q2 2020-5.9%-9.8%-11.5%
Q1 2020+38.8%+50.3%+51.2%
Q4 2019+6.2%-5.4%-57.8%
Q3 2019+1.3%+5.5%+5.4%
Q2 2019+18.5%+21.0%+1.3%
Q1 2019-19.8%-25.2%-30.9%
Q4 2018+15.8%+21.3%+32.9%
Q3 2018+11.1%+10.2%+12.5%
Q2 2018-6.3%-10.9%+4.0%
Q1 2018-15.0%-20.0%-20.4%
Q4 2017-6.2%-4.5%-3.3%
Q3 2017+5.0%+11.3%+9.2%
Q2 2017+4.8%+4.5%+4.8%
Q1 2017+32.6%+25.0%+15.8%
Q4 2016+8.2%+11.7%+22.1%
Q3 2016-10.1%-8.4%+7.5%
Q2 2016-3.1%+0.1%+18.8%
Q1 2016+18.4%
Q4 2015-23.3%
Q3 2015+15.8%
Q2 2015-9.8%
Q1 2015-0.5%
Q4 2014+2.0%
Q3 2014+15.0%
Q2 2014+7.1%
Q1 2014+9.6%
Q4 2013+4.2%
Q3 2013-23.1%
Q2 2013-11.0%
Q1 2013-0.2%
Q4 2012-14.9%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+30.7%
Q1 2012-3.1%
Q4 2011+1.8%
Q4 2010+1.8%
Q3 2011-0.4%
Q2 2011-9.8%
Q1 2011-9.8%
Q3 2010+5.1%
Q2 2010-3.5%
Q1 2010+10.6%

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