NASDAQ$PIII

P3 Health Partners Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, with total revenue growth of 21% year-over-year, beating 2023 guidance, and affirmed 2024 guidance.

P3 Health Partners reported strong top-line results for 2023, with revenue of approximately $1.27 billion, representing 21% growth and exceeding the top end of the guidance range. The company reaffirms its 2024 outlook based on strong growth in membership, increased funding, and stabilized medical cost trends. P3 experienced higher medical expenses in December due primarily to increased hospital admissions with the combination of COVID-19 and flu exacerbations.

  • Total revenue was $346.9 million, an increase of 34% compared to the fourth quarter of the prior year.
  • Capitated revenue was $342.8 million, an increase of 35% compared to the fourth quarter of the prior year.
  • Net loss was $69.1 million compared to a net loss of $532.3 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss was $44.3 million compared to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $40.0 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$347M

Previous: $258M+34.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.22

Previous: -$2.26+90.3%
Medical Margin PMPM

$2.65

No prior period
Medical Margin

$9.08M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$212K

Previous: -$50.4K+520.6%
Net Income

-$69.1M

Previous: -$94M+26.5%
Operating Income

-$64.3M

Previous: -$537M+88.0%
Gross Profit

-$20.8M

Previous: $258M-108.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.72M

Previous: $2.19M-21.6%

Revenue & EPS history

P3 Health · Revenue · Quarterly

$347M

Q4 2023+34.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 12 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

P3 Health · $386M total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Capitated Revenue
    $379M
  • Other Revenue
    $6.89M

Forward guidance

P3 Health Partners anticipates reaching Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Anticipates reaching Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2024.
  • Strong growth in membership
  • Increased funding
  • Stabilized medical cost trends
  • Demand for the P3 model is as high as ever

Headwinds

  • Experienced higher medical expenses in December due primarily to increased hospital admissions with the combination of COVID-19 and flu exacerbations. The company expects a return to a more normalized seasonally adjusted utilization beginning in January 2024.
  • Uncertainty around certain items that may impact net income (loss), gross profit (loss) or gross profit (loss) PMPM that are not within our control or cannot be reasonably predicted without unreasonable effort.
  • Our potential need to raise additional capital to fund our existing operations or develop and commercialize new services or expand our operations.
  • Our ability to achieve or maintain profitability
  • Changes in market or industry conditions, regulatory environment, competitive conditions, and receptivity to our services

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 17 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-3.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

37%

7 / 19 earnings

Positive

+11.2%

Q1 2026

Best reaction

-36.8%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2026+0.7%-9.7%
Q1 2026+11.2%+194.4%+239.9%
Q3 2025+0.4%-12.6%-25.9%
Q2 2025-2.5%+5.4%+23.9%
Q1 2025-0.6%-5.9%-19.5%
Q4 2024-4.5%+1.1%-1.2%
Q3 2024-36.8%-42.2%-46.0%
Q2 2024-2.5%-8.7%-24.1%
Q1 2024+2.6%-11.8%-21.6%
Q4 2023-13.3%-22.4%-56.3%
Q4 2021+3.1%-7.6%-12.2%
Q3 2023-2.1%-8.8%-19.0%
Q2 2023+0.9%-10.8%-5.0%
Q4 2022-5.9%-12.7%+15.5%
Q3 2022-11.8%-19.7%-33.5%
Q1 2022-5.9%+2.1%-16.8%
Q2 2022-4.1%+0.6%-14.0%
Q3 2021+0.1%+0.3%-19.9%
Q2 2021-0.7%-0.2%+0.3%

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