NASDAQ$NVAX

Novavax Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported Q4 2023 financial results, with a focus on revenue, cost reduction, and pipeline expansion.

Novavax reported Q4 2023 revenue of $291 million and a net loss of $178 million. The company is focused on reducing spending, managing cash flow, and advancing its COVID-19-Influenza Combination vaccine candidate.

  • Achieved Q4 2023 revenues of $291 million.
  • Reduced full year 2023 operating expenses by 41% compared to 2022.
  • Advanced progress on COVID-19-Influenza Combination vaccine, with a Phase 3 trial expected in the second half of 2024.
  • Settled arbitration with Gavi, removing financial uncertainty.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$291M

Previous: $357M-18.5%
EPS (adj)

-$1.47

Previous: -$2.28+35.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$9.08M

No prior period
Net Income

-$178M

Previous: -$182M+2.1%
Operating Income

-$184M

Previous: -$244M+24.7%
Gross Profit

$142M

Previous: $106M+34.3%
R&D Expense

$165M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$15.7M

Previous: $27.8M-43.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Novavax · Revenue · Quarterly

$291M

Q4 2023-18.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Novavax · $2.23M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Product sales
    $2.23M

Forward guidance

Novavax expects full year 2024 total revenue between $800 million and $1 billion and combined R&D and SG&A expenses between $700 million and $800 million.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue includes product sales and royalties & other revenue.
  • Full year 2024 guidance reflects APA expected dose delivery schedules of $500 million to $600 million
  • Non-APA related revenue of $300 million to $400 million from a combination of commercial market product sales plus royalties and other revenue from our partner-related activity, subject to updated variant manufacturing and regulatory approvals.
  • Potential APA deliveries for 2024 through 2026 of over $1 billion consisting primarily of deliveries to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Israel and Europe
  • Spring 2024 U.K. private market launch expected for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine as enabled by the recent Green Book addition by the U.K. Health Security Agency

Headwinds

  • Challenges satisfying, alone or together with partners, various safety, efficacy, and product characterization requirements, including those related to process qualification, assay validation and stability testing, necessary to satisfy applicable regulatory authorities
  • Challenges or delays in conducting clinical trials
  • Challenges or delays in obtaining regulatory authorization for its product candidates, including its updated COVID-19 vaccine in time for the 2024-2025 vaccination season in the U.S. and in foreign jurisdictions to meet APA commitments or for future COVID-19 variant strain changes
  • Manufacturing, distribution or export delays or challenges
  • Challenges meeting contractual requirements under agreements with multiple commercial, governmental, and other entities, including requirements to deliver doses that may require Novavax to refund portions of upfront and other payments previously received or result in reduced future payments pursuant to such agreements

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+5.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.8%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

23 / 64 earnings

Positive

+193.3%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-33.2%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+15.6%+17.3%+17.0%
Q4 2025+0.5%-0.4%-11.3%
Q3 2025-3.0%-3.3%-10.1%
Q1 2025+11.6%+4.0%+25.2%
Q4 2024-3.6%+4.9%-4.4%
Q3 2024-13.8%-18.8%+0.1%
Q2 2024+8.3%+13.5%+8.6%
Q1 2024+193.3%+188.6%+306.5%
Q4 2023-17.9%-8.8%-20.6%
Q3 2023-8.2%-8.2%-18.1%
Q2 2023-5.3%-2.1%+21.7%
Q1 2023+20.7%+13.4%+3.2%
Q4 2022-20.9%-11.3%-24.0%
Q3 2022-4.1%+28.9%-10.9%
Q2 2022-33.2%-31.2%-49.2%
Q1 2022-6.0%-9.4%-12.5%
Q4 2021+2.6%-12.1%-8.4%
Q3 2021-18.4%-13.3%-17.8%
Q2 2021-15.2%+2.9%+12.4%
Q1 2021-21.5%-25.2%+19.1%
Q4 2020-10.9%-24.4%-21.6%
Q3 2020-12.4%+7.5%+28.2%
Q2 2020-12.2%-14.0%-46.7%
Q1 2020+112.6%+132.9%+140.0%
Q4 2019-12.8%-35.1%+60.1%
Q3 2019+3.8%-6.3%-1.6%
Q2 2019-8.2%-15.5%+15.5%
Q1 2019-7.8%-21.6%-44.3%
Q4 2018+7.8%+5.9%+3.9%
Q3 2018-3.7%-10.5%+7.3%
Q2 2018+22.5%+13.3%+24.2%
Q1 2018-1.2%+4.3%-1.2%
Q4 2017-4.2%-2.8%-15.3%
Q3 2017+0.9%+0.0%+24.8%
Q2 2017+3.1%+4.2%+22.9%
Q1 2017+14.9%+35.1%+43.2%
Q4 2016+9.4%+6.5%-7.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%-6.9%+0.7%
Q2 2016-9.2%-6.4%-0.3%
Q1 2016-8.9%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015-12.2%
Q2 2015+28.3%
Q1 2015+4.4%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014-5.0%
Q1 2014-7.1%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+3.2%
Q2 2013-10.8%
Q1 2013-8.9%
Q4 2012-0.5%
Q3 2012-1.8%
Q2 2012+0.5%
Q1 2012-5.7%
Q4 2011+0.0%
Q3 2011+0.0%
Q2 2011+5.9%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q3 2010+1.3%
Q2 2010-1.3%
Q1 2010+14.9%

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