NASDAQ$NVAX

Novavax Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced first quarter 2023 financial results, reflecting a shift to seasonal demand and progress on updated COVID vaccine development.

Novavax reported Q1 2023 revenue of $81 million, a significant decrease from $704 million in Q1 2022, reflecting a shift to seasonal demand for COVID vaccines. The company announced a global restructuring and cost reduction initiative, aiming for a 40% to 50% reduction in R&D and SG&A expenses by 2024 compared to 2022. Despite a net loss of $294 million, Novavax is on track to deliver an updated COVID vaccine for the Fall season and announced positive Phase 2 topline results for its COVID-Influenza Combination, standalone influenza, and high dose COVID vaccine candidates.

  • Total revenue for Q1 2023 was $81 million, down from $704 million in the same period in 2022, due to seasonal demand.
  • Announced global restructuring and cost reduction initiative expected to reduce 2024 R&D and SG&A expenses by approximately 40% to 50% compared to 2022.
  • Provided full year 2023 total revenue guidance of between $1.4 and $1.6 billion.
  • Net loss for the first quarter 2023 was $294 million, compared to a net income of $203 million in the same period in 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$81M

Previous: $704M-88.5%
EPS (adj)

-$3.41

Previous: $2.56-233.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$19.8M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$314M

Previous: $203M-254.2%
Net Income

-$294M

Previous: $203M-244.5%
Operating Income

-$313M

Previous: $209M-249.4%
Gross Profit

$46.9M

Previous: $689M-93.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$625M

Previous: $1.57B-60.2%
Total Assets

$1.54B

Previous: $2.83B-45.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$28.6M

Previous: $32.9M-13.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Novavax · Revenue · Quarterly

$81M

Q1 2023-88.5%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Novavax · -$7.46M total across 1 segment · Q1 2023

  • Product sales
    -$7.46M

Forward guidance

Novavax projects full year 2023 total revenue to be between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion. They anticipate combined R&D and SG&A expenses of between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, excluding one-time restructuring costs.

Tailwinds

  • Full Year 2023 Total Revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion
  • Grant Revenue between $340 million and $360 million
  • Product Sales between $1.06 billion and $1.24 billion
  • Secured a $100 million payment in the second quarter of 2023 related to a negotiated APA
  • Reducing outstanding current liabilities

Headwinds

  • Anticipated restructuring charge of $10 million to $15 million related to employee severance and benefit costs
  • Potential costs associated with a Phase 3 Flu/CIC program
  • Challenges satisfying safety, efficacy, and product characterization requirements
  • Difficulty obtaining scarce raw materials and supplies
  • Potential for an unfavorable outcome in disputes, including the pending arbitration with Gavi

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+5.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.8%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

23 / 64 earnings

Positive

+193.3%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-33.2%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+15.6%+17.3%+17.0%
Q4 2025+0.5%-0.4%-11.3%
Q3 2025-3.0%-3.3%-10.1%
Q1 2025+11.6%+4.0%+25.2%
Q4 2024-3.6%+4.9%-4.4%
Q3 2024-13.8%-18.8%+0.1%
Q2 2024+8.3%+13.5%+8.6%
Q1 2024+193.3%+188.6%+306.5%
Q4 2023-17.9%-8.8%-20.6%
Q3 2023-8.2%-8.2%-18.1%
Q2 2023-5.3%-2.1%+21.7%
Q1 2023+20.7%+13.4%+3.2%
Q4 2022-20.9%-11.3%-24.0%
Q3 2022-4.1%+28.9%-10.9%
Q2 2022-33.2%-31.2%-49.2%
Q1 2022-6.0%-9.4%-12.5%
Q4 2021+2.6%-12.1%-8.4%
Q3 2021-18.4%-13.3%-17.8%
Q2 2021-15.2%+2.9%+12.4%
Q1 2021-21.5%-25.2%+19.1%
Q4 2020-10.9%-24.4%-21.6%
Q3 2020-12.4%+7.5%+28.2%
Q2 2020-12.2%-14.0%-46.7%
Q1 2020+112.6%+132.9%+140.0%
Q4 2019-12.8%-35.1%+60.1%
Q3 2019+3.8%-6.3%-1.6%
Q2 2019-8.2%-15.5%+15.5%
Q1 2019-7.8%-21.6%-44.3%
Q4 2018+7.8%+5.9%+3.9%
Q3 2018-3.7%-10.5%+7.3%
Q2 2018+22.5%+13.3%+24.2%
Q1 2018-1.2%+4.3%-1.2%
Q4 2017-4.2%-2.8%-15.3%
Q3 2017+0.9%+0.0%+24.8%
Q2 2017+3.1%+4.2%+22.9%
Q1 2017+14.9%+35.1%+43.2%
Q4 2016+9.4%+6.5%-7.2%
Q3 2016-3.4%-6.9%+0.7%
Q2 2016-9.2%-6.4%-0.3%
Q1 2016-8.9%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015-12.2%
Q2 2015+28.3%
Q1 2015+4.4%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014-5.0%
Q1 2014-7.1%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+3.2%
Q2 2013-10.8%
Q1 2013-8.9%
Q4 2012-0.5%
Q3 2012-1.8%
Q2 2012+0.5%
Q1 2012-5.7%
Q4 2011+0.0%
Q3 2011+0.0%
Q2 2011+5.9%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+0.0%
Q3 2010+1.3%
Q2 2010-1.3%
Q1 2010+14.9%

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