NASDAQ$NDLS

Noodles & Co · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in total revenue and net loss, but digital sales experienced substantial growth.

Noodles & Company's Q4 2020 results showed resilience in their digital and off-premise capabilities, with digital sales growing significantly. However, total revenue and restaurant contribution margin decreased compared to the same quarter of the previous year, and the company experienced a net loss.

  • Total revenue decreased by 5.9% to $107.2 million.
  • Digital sales grew by 128% and accounted for 62% of total sales.
  • Net loss was $3.8 million, or $0.09 loss per diluted share.
  • Restaurant contribution margin decreased to 13.6%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$107M

Previous: $114M-5.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.04

Previous: $0.07-157.1%
System-wide Comparable Sales

-4.7%

Previous: 1.5%-413.3%
Restaurant Contribution Margin

13.6%

Previous: 17.2%-20.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$5.3M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$1.9M

Previous: $3.62M-47.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.09M

Previous: $10.2M-110.7%
Net Income

-$3.8M

Previous: -$1.2M-216.7%
Operating Income

-$3.37M

Previous: $200K-1786.0%
Gross Profit

$16.1M

Previous: $20.9M-22.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.8M

Previous: $29.3M-73.4%
Total Assets

$354M

Previous: $379M-6.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$593K

Previous: $663K-10.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Noodles & Co · Revenue · Quarterly

$107M

Q4 2020-5.9%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Noodles & Co · $105M total across 1 segment · Q4 2020

  • Restaurant Revenue
    $105M

Forward guidance

Noodles & Company is not providing full financial guidance for fiscal year 2021 due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future impact of COVID-19. However, the Company is providing expectations within 2021.

Tailwinds

  • First quarter 2021 comparable restaurant sales in the mid-to-high single digits.
  • Approximately ten to fifteen new restaurants system-wide in 2021, including eight to eleven company locations.
  • Capital expenditures of $20 million to $24 million in 2021.
  • System-wide unit growth of at least 7% annually beginning in 2022, quickly reaching 10% annual growth on a path to at least 1,500 units.
  • Average unit volumes of $1.45 million by 2024.

Headwinds

  • Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future impact of COVID-19.
  • Potential impact on the Company’s near-term operations.
  • Conditions beyond our control such as weather, natural disasters, disease outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics impacting our customers or food supplies.
  • Consumer reaction to industry related public health issues and health pandemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic and perceptions of food safety.
  • The Company’s ability to achieve and maintain increases in comparable restaurant sales and to successfully execute our business strategy, including new restaurant initiatives and operational strategies to improve the performance of our restaurant portfolio.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

18 / 50 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-28.8%

Q4 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027+1.2%+7.7%
Q3 2025+13.6%+15.2%+48.5%
Q1 2025-15.8%-13.9%-20.8%
Q4 2025+13.6%-3.2%-10.4%
Q3 2024-14.4%-23.7%-46.6%
Q2 2024-13.7%-0.6%-13.0%
Q1 2024+20.8%+19.1%+10.7%
Q4 2023-10.8%-20.3%-38.2%
Q3 2023+12.7%+19.1%+50.0%
Q2 2023-3.5%-3.9%-16.9%
Q1 2023-18.8%-20.1%-29.2%
Q3 2022-6.0%+5.7%-7.0%
Q2 2022+12.6%+18.1%+10.3%
Q1 2022+14.9%+20.2%+34.2%
Q4 2021-16.8%-20.9%-32.3%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.8%-15.8%
Q2 2021+4.6%+2.6%+3.1%
Q1 2021+14.3%+13.8%+22.2%
Q4 2020-1.4%+16.4%+11.2%
Q3 2020-14.4%-20.4%+1.4%
Q2 2020+6.3%+14.9%+10.6%
Q1 2020-4.0%+4.7%+45.1%
Q4 2019-0.1%-4.0%-37.1%
Q3 2019+6.2%+16.7%+8.8%
Q2 2019-6.4%-11.4%-21.5%
Q1 2019+14.2%+9.2%-4.3%
Q4 2018-15.3%-11.3%-12.6%
Q3 2018-24.3%-23.0%-25.7%
Q2 2018-2.5%-0.8%-7.0%
Q1 2018+20.9%+32.4%+27.7%
Q4 2017+7.8%+18.0%+15.6%
Q3 2017+2.3%+9.3%+9.3%
Q2 2017-6.3%-5.0%+21.2%
Q1 2017-2.7%-14.5%-26.5%
Q4 2016+6.6%-5.3%+51.3%
Q3 2016-8.8%-14.3%-8.8%
Q2 2016-5.8%-7.9%-11.2%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015-2.4%
Q3 2015-13.2%
Q2 2015-19.2%
Q1 2015-17.3%
Q4 2014-28.8%
Q3 2014+15.9%
Q2 2014-16.5%
Q1 2014-10.3%
Q4 2012-0.8%
Q4 2013+5.4%
Q3 2013-11.7%
Q2 2013-8.3%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012

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