NASDAQ$MAR

Marriott International Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported solid results driven by rooms growth and RevPAR index gains.

Marriott International reported solid fourth quarter 2019 results, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.57, a 9% increase compared to the year-ago quarter. The company's worldwide development pipeline totaled approximately 515,000 rooms at year-end.

  • Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS totaled $1.57, compared to fourth quarter 2018 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.44.
  • Fourth quarter 2019 comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR rose 1.1 percent worldwide.
  • Worldwide comparable systemwide RevPAR index grew 240 basis points in the fourth quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA totaled $901 million in the 2019 fourth quarter, a 4 percent increase compared to fourth quarter 2018 adjusted EBITDA.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.37B

Previous: $5.29B+1.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.57

Previous: $1.44+9.0%
Worldwide RevPAR Growth

1.1%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$901M

No prior period
Total Debt

$10.9B

No prior period
Cash and Equivalents

$225M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$418M

Previous: $94M+344.7%
Free Cash Flow

$77M

Previous: $439M-82.5%
Net Income

$279M

Previous: $317M-12.0%
Operating Income

$274M

Previous: $422M-35.1%
Gross Profit

$667M

Previous: $817M-18.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$225M

Previous: $316M-28.8%
Total Assets

$25.1B

Previous: $23.7B+5.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$49M

Previous: $44M+11.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Marriott · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.37B

Q4 2019+1.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Marriott · $1.4B total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Franchise and Base Management Fees
    $799M
  • Owned, Leased, and Other Revenue, Net
    $426M
  • Incentive Management Fees
    $175M

Forward guidance

Marriott provided a base case outlook for full year 2020, assuming comparable systemwide RevPAR on a constant dollar basis will be flat to up 2 percent worldwide.

Tailwinds

  • First quarter 2020 gross fee revenues will total $940 million to $950 million, a 5 to 6 percent
  • First quarter 2020 adjusted EBITDA could total $853 million to $867 million, a 4 to 6 percent increase over first quarter 2019 adjusted EBITDA of $821 million.
  • Full year 2020 gross fee revenues will total $3,960 million to $4,040 million, a 4 to 6 percent increase over 2019 gross fee revenues of $3,823 million
  • Full year 2020 diluted EPS could total $6.30 to $6.53.
  • Full year 2020 adjusted EBITDA could total $3,700 million to $3,800 million, a 3 to 6 percent increase over 2019 adjusted EBITDA of $3,575 million.

Headwinds

  • The base case outlook for first quarter and full year 2020 does not reflect any impact from the Coronavirus outbreak.
  • First quarter 2020 incentive management fees will decrease slightly compared to first quarter 2019 incentive management fees of $163 million.
  • Full year 2020 estimated gross fee revenues include roughly $10 million of unfavorable foreign exchange.
  • Room additions for the current year could also be delayed as a result of the Coronavirus outbreak.
  • Marriott cannot fully estimate the financial impact from the virus, which could be material to first quarter and full year 2020 results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+17.2%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.2%-1.8%+10.9%
Q4 2025+8.5%+6.8%-4.5%
Q3 2025+3.1%+10.3%+12.2%
Q2 2025+0.2%+0.3%+3.8%
Q1 2025+2.0%+4.3%+5.1%
Q4 2024-5.4%-6.9%-22.1%
Q3 2024-0.3%+7.8%+11.2%
Q2 2024-8.4%-11.5%-1.7%
Q1 2024-0.2%+0.3%-2.1%
Q4 2023-5.4%-2.9%-0.3%
Q3 2023+1.3%+3.0%+10.8%
Q2 2023+0.8%+0.6%+0.8%
Q1 2023+4.9%+3.8%+0.6%
Q4 2022+3.6%-1.1%-7.6%
Q3 2022-2.6%-1.6%+8.3%
Q2 2022-0.1%-1.6%-3.5%
Q1 2022+2.7%-5.3%+0.9%
Q4 2021+7.0%+2.1%-0.1%
Q3 2021+2.5%+5.2%-6.3%
Q2 2021-4.8%-2.3%-6.5%
Q1 2021-3.4%-2.3%-2.0%
Q4 2020+3.8%+13.9%+15.9%
Q3 2020+17.2%+15.3%+34.4%
Q2 2020+3.4%+2.4%+8.8%
Q1 2020-9.0%-8.5%+17.7%
Q4 2019-3.6%-0.9%-36.5%
Q3 2019+4.4%+4.0%+8.7%
Q2 2019-5.5%-2.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019-7.0%-2.7%-2.2%
Q4 2018-2.0%-1.3%-1.4%
Q3 2018-5.3%-3.2%-6.1%
Q2 2018-2.9%-6.3%-2.5%
Q1 2018+0.9%+2.3%+2.0%
Q4 2017+0.5%-1.5%+0.3%
Q3 2017-1.6%-1.5%+4.8%
Q2 2017-1.0%-5.4%-3.1%
Q1 2017+5.6%+5.6%+8.3%
Q4 2016+1.8%+1.7%+0.5%
Q3 2016+4.9%+5.4%+20.6%
Q2 2016-0.2%-0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2016+3.3%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015-1.3%
Q2 2015-2.6%
Q1 2015-1.6%
Q4 2014+2.2%
Q3 2014+5.4%
Q2 2014-1.1%
Q1 2014+3.5%
Q4 2013+0.8%
Q3 2013+1.1%
Q2 2013+0.5%
Q1 2013-0.5%
Q4 2012-3.7%
Q3 2012+0.8%
Q2 2012-6.8%
Q1 2012-1.8%
Q4 2011+0.6%
Q3 2011+2.9%
Q2 2011-1.3%
Q1 2011-5.1%
Q4 2010-4.7%
Q3 2010+0.0%
Q2 2010-2.3%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q3 2009+1.7%
Q2 2009+0.1%
Q4 2009+0.1%

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