NASDAQ$LKQ

LKQ Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LKQ's fourth quarter results reflected a decrease in revenue but solid performance in North America and Europe.

LKQ Corporation reported a decrease in revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022, with revenue at $3.0 billion, a 5.8% decrease compared to Q4 2021. Diluted EPS was $0.72, down 11.1%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.78, down 10.3%. Despite the revenue decrease, the Wholesale - North America and Europe segments delivered strong organic revenue growth and solid margins.

  • Fourth quarter revenue was $3.0 billion, a decrease of 5.8% year-over-year.
  • Parts and services organic revenue increased by 4.5% (5.9% on a per day basis).
  • Diluted EPS was $0.72, a decrease of 11.1% year-over-year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.78, a decrease of 10.3%.
  • Net income for the fourth quarter was $193 million, compared to $235 million in the same period of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3B

Previous: $3.19B-5.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.78

Previous: $0.87-10.3%
Free Cash Flow

$1B

No prior period
Net Income

$193M

Previous: $236M-18.2%
Operating Income

$293M

Previous: $280M+4.6%
Gross Profit

$1.22B

Previous: $1.27B-3.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$278M

Previous: $274M+1.4%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $12.6B-4.5%

Revenue & EPS history

LKQ · Revenue · Quarterly

$3B

Q4 2022-5.8%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

LKQ · $1.75B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Europe
    $1.38B-7.0%
  • Specialty
    $364M-11.1%

Forward guidance

LKQ provided its 2023 full year outlook, anticipating organic revenue growth for parts and services between 6.0% and 8.0%, diluted EPS between $3.68 and $3.98, adjusted diluted EPS between $3.90 and $4.20, operating cash flow of approximately $1.275 billion, and free cash flow of approximately $975 million.

Tailwinds

  • Organic revenue growth for parts and services is expected to be between 6.0% and 8.0%.
  • Diluted EPS is projected to be between $3.68 and $3.98.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $3.90 and $4.20.
  • Operating cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $1.275 billion.
  • Free cash flow is projected to be approximately $975 million.

Headwinds

  • The outlook assumes a global effective tax rate of 26.3%.
  • The outlook assumes the prices of scrap and precious metals hold near the December average.
  • The outlook assumes no further deterioration due to the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
  • The outlook assumes foreign currency exchange rates near January average levels, including $1.08 and $1.22 for the euro and pound sterling, respectively.
  • The outlook assumes a $45 million to $55 million increase in annual interest expense relative to 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

39 / 69 earnings

Positive

+12.9%

Q2 2013

Best reaction

-15.8%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.4%-7.8%-11.6%
Q4 2025-1.0%+0.9%-14.9%
Q3 2025+3.7%+1.2%-1.2%
Q2 2025-0.5%-1.4%+1.9%
Q1 2025-11.6%-10.6%-4.6%
Q4 2024+6.0%+5.4%+2.5%
Q3 2024-0.6%-1.1%+1.9%
Q2 2024-9.7%-8.2%-4.2%
Q1 2024-11.5%-10.8%-13.3%
Q4 2023+3.7%+5.2%+4.9%
Q3 2023-7.2%-6.4%-2.3%
Q2 2023-5.2%-3.5%-9.9%
Q1 2023+2.7%+1.8%-4.7%
Q4 2022+1.5%+1.0%-5.1%
Q3 2022+3.8%+0.1%+2.7%
Q2 2022+2.2%+2.0%+0.6%
Q1 2022+0.3%+2.7%+5.8%
Q4 2021-11.6%-13.5%-15.9%
Q3 2021+1.6%+4.3%+6.2%
Q2 2021+1.7%+4.4%+4.3%
Q1 2021+2.6%+5.8%+12.0%
Q4 2020+5.5%+4.8%+18.0%
Q3 2020+7.5%+15.5%+20.9%
Q2 2020-0.7%+1.5%+14.9%
Q1 2020-1.9%-1.3%+8.5%
Q4 2019-2.8%-7.9%-52.1%
Q3 2019+11.6%+13.4%+12.1%
Q2 2019+5.7%+2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2019-4.5%-4.3%-15.6%
Q4 2018+2.1%+1.9%+4.1%
Q3 2018+2.7%+3.9%+6.5%
Q2 2018+0.7%-0.5%-0.3%
Q1 2018-15.8%-19.5%-18.2%
Q4 2017-3.6%-5.4%-10.6%
Q3 2017+0.5%+3.1%+4.1%
Q2 2017+5.1%+4.3%+4.4%
Q1 2017+3.5%+4.2%+4.5%
Q4 2016-3.5%-4.4%-11.1%
Q3 2016-3.4%-3.9%+0.5%
Q2 2016+0.7%+1.1%+4.5%
Q1 2016-6.2%
Q4 2015+8.6%
Q3 2015+0.5%
Q2 2015+0.3%
Q1 2015+10.1%
Q4 2014-11.7%
Q3 2014+3.4%
Q2 2014+0.9%
Q1 2014+7.0%
Q4 2013-4.1%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013+12.9%
Q1 2013+7.1%
Q4 2012-10.9%
Q3 2012+3.2%
Q2 2012+5.9%
Q1 2012+11.4%
Q4 2008-0.1%
Q4 2011-0.1%
Q3 2011-2.4%
Q2 2011-1.2%
Q1 2010+0.6%
Q1 2011+1.5%
Q4 2010-0.2%
Q3 2009-1.1%
Q3 2010-1.1%
Q4 2009+3.4%
Q2 2009+3.4%
Q2 2010+3.4%

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