NASDAQ$HLMN

Hillman Solutions Corp · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Hillman Solutions' Q3 2022 results reflected a year-over-year increase in net sales and an improvement in Adjusted EBITDA, driven by price increases offsetting higher costs.

Hillman Solutions Corp. reported a 3.9% increase in net sales to $378.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $59.0 million for the third quarter of 2022. The company's fill rates for the year reached 96%, contributing to market share gains. While sales volume was softer than expected, price increases helped offset higher costs.

  • Net sales increased by 3.9% to $378.5 million compared to the prior year quarter.
  • Net loss was $(9.5) million, or $(0.05) per diluted share, compared to a loss of $(32.5) million in the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.14 per diluted share, up from $0.13 in the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA totaled $59.0 million, compared to $56.5 million in the prior year quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$364M

Previous: $353M+3.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.14

Previous: $0.04+250.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$59M

Previous: $56.5M+4.4%
Net Debt

$922M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$9.47M

Previous: -$32.5M+70.9%
Net Income

-$9.47M

Previous: -$32.5M+70.9%
Operating Income

-$449K

Previous: -$13.3M+96.6%
Gross Profit

$149M

Previous: $116M+28.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$29.2M

Previous: $14.4M+102.6%
Total Assets

$2.58B

Previous: $2.59B-0.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.49M

Previous: $5.28M-52.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Hillman Solutions · Revenue · Quarterly

$364M

Q3 2022+3.2%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Hillman has updated its full year 2022 guidance, refining Adjusted EBITDA within the original range, while adjusting net sales and free cash flow expectations due to softer sales volume and one-time cash expenses.

Tailwinds

  • Best-in-class field sales and service team continues to solve complex labor and supply chain issues.
  • Fill rates for the year at 96%, gaining market share and strengthening customer relationships.
  • Near record homeowner’s equity and aging U.S. housing stock drive home improvement projects.
  • Direct-to-store model minimizes the impact of customer de-stocking.
  • Sourcing lead times have continued to improve since the beginning of the year.

Headwinds

  • Sales volume has been softer than expectations, impacting the timing of planned inventory reductions.
  • Incurred one-time cash expenses related to patent litigation.
  • Net sales expectations for 2022 have been adjusted downwards.
  • Free cash flow expectations for 2022 have been adjusted downwards.
  • Working capital needs to be brought back in line with historical levels.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

9 / 22 earnings

Positive

+8.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-10.1%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-5.0%-10.5%-14.5%
Q4 2025-10.1%-11.0%-21.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-5.6%-3.1%
Q1 2025-7.4%-5.7%-1.7%
Q4 2024-2.1%-3.3%-13.2%
Q3 2024+3.8%+4.1%+4.4%
Q2 2024+3.4%+3.0%+7.2%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.3%-10.7%
Q4 2023+8.8%+8.8%+15.2%
Q3 2023-1.9%-0.7%+15.2%
Q2 2023-6.1%-5.1%-13.2%
Q1 2023+1.4%+0.5%+8.9%
Q4 2022+3.0%+0.0%-12.6%
Q3 2022+7.4%+3.5%+15.4%
Q2 2022-9.7%-6.1%-20.3%
Q1 2022+6.0%+6.6%+6.4%
Q4 2021+8.2%+17.7%+33.9%
Q3 2021-5.3%-1.7%-9.8%
Q2 2021+3.3%+4.2%-0.4%
Q1 2021-8.0%-5.9%+1.9%
Q4 2020-2.8%+1.1%-0.3%
Q4 2019-2.8%+1.1%-0.3%
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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