NASDAQ$DLTR

Dollar Tree Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Dollar Tree reported its Q4 2024 results, showing modest sales growth but a decline in operating income and profitability metrics.

Dollar Tree's Q4 2024 results reflected a 0.7% increase in net sales to $4.9967 billion, with same-store net sales growth of 2.0%. Operating income fell by 26.5% to $533.6 million. GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $1.86, and adjusted consolidated EPS was $2.29. The company also reported a gross profit of $1.8798 billion, with a decline in gross margin to 37.6%.

  • Net sales increased slightly by 0.7% to $4.9967 billion.
  • Operating income decreased by 26.5% to $533.6 million.
  • GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations was $1.86, with adjusted consolidated EPS at $2.29.
  • Gross profit decreased 2.8% to $1.8798 billion, with a gross margin of 37.6%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5B

Previous: $8.64B-42.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.29

Previous: $2.55-10.2%
Capital Expenditures

$104M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$563M

No prior period
Net Income

$400M

Previous: $452M-11.5%
Operating Income

$534M

Previous: $618M-13.7%
Gross Profit

$1.88B

Previous: $2.39B-21.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Dollar Tree · Revenue · Quarterly

$5B

Q4 2024-42.2%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 14 quarters(79%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Dollar Tree · $4.97B total across 1 segment · Q1 2027

  • Dollar Tree
    $4.97B

Forward guidance

For full-year fiscal 2025, Dollar Tree expects net sales between $18.5 billion and $19.1 billion and adjusted EPS from continuing operations between $5.00 and $5.50. The company also anticipates a negative impact of $0.30 to $0.35 on earnings due to only half-year reimbursement from Family Dollar transition services.

Tailwinds

  • Expected net sales growth of 3% to 5%.
  • Planned cost optimizations post Family Dollar divestiture.
  • Continued focus on Dollar Tree’s multi-price format expansion.
  • Strong customer acceptance of expanded assortment.
  • Enhanced capital allocation and share repurchase potential.

Headwinds

  • Negative EPS impact from half-year TSA reimbursement shortfall.
  • Higher shared service expense burden during the first half of fiscal 2025.
  • Uncertainty from pending antitrust approval for Family Dollar sale.
  • Potential macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer spending.
  • Continued cost pressures from freight, shrink, and store-related expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

39 / 65 earnings

Positive

+23.5%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-17.2%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027
Q4 2025+2.0%-1.4%-5.7%
Q3 2025+4.2%+10.4%+17.2%
Q2 2025-8.2%-10.7%-19.2%
Q1 2025-8.3%-3.0%+5.4%
Q1 2026+0.5%+3.8%+11.6%
Q4 2024+3.1%+11.8%+20.0%
Q3 2024+0.1%-1.2%+1.2%
Q2 2024-16.1%-17.4%-13.2%
Q1 2024-6.6%-8.4%-11.3%
Q4 2023-16.3%-15.0%-16.4%
Q3 2023+6.5%+10.5%+22.4%
Q2 2023-13.3%-13.4%-26.5%
Q1 2023-8.3%-10.9%-7.5%
Q4 2022+0.9%-0.8%-1.2%
Q3 2022-9.1%-8.4%-15.2%
Q2 2022-16.4%-16.9%-14.9%
Q1 2022+23.5%+20.0%+17.7%
Q4 2021+4.8%+0.8%+14.1%
Q3 2021+10.6%+6.4%+3.3%
Q2 2021-14.5%-14.8%-20.5%
Q1 2021-10.1%-8.8%-9.3%
Q4 2020+2.9%+9.2%+17.2%
Q3 2020+14.5%+12.6%+11.7%
Q2 2020-9.1%-10.1%-14.2%
Q1 2020+11.8%+10.8%+5.8%
Q4 2019-4.7%+2.1%-14.2%
Q3 2019-17.2%-18.6%-18.1%
Q2 2019+1.9%+2.4%+14.8%
Q1 2019+6.6%+5.6%+12.7%
Q4 2018+8.1%+8.8%+11.0%
Q3 2018+4.1%+3.5%+5.3%
Q2 2018-14.8%-15.3%-13.7%
Q1 2018-15.6%-13.9%-11.8%
Q4 2017-12.5%-9.6%-5.4%
Q3 2017+2.7%+1.3%+11.7%
Q2 2017+8.2%+7.2%+13.9%
Q1 2017+0.3%+0.1%-14.7%
Q4 2016+1.4%-1.0%+2.3%
Q3 2016+8.4%+8.8%-3.3%
Q2 2016-9.9%-11.4%-15.6%
Q1 2016+13.5%+15.5%+17.3%
Q4 2015-1.8%
Q3 2015+7.7%
Q2 2015-11.4%
Q1 2015+1.2%
Q4 2014+2.0%
Q3 2014+6.0%
Q2 2014-1.3%
Q1 2014+5.4%
Q4 2013+3.8%
Q3 2013-3.5%
Q2 2013+2.8%
Q1 2013+3.9%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+2.8%
Q2 2012-2.2%
Q1 2012-6.0%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q4 2009+0.7%
Q4 2011+0.7%
Q3 2011-2.4%
Q3 2010-2.4%
Q2 2010+6.7%
Q4 2010+6.7%
Q2 2011+6.7%

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