NASDAQ$CWST

Casella Waste Systems Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Casella's Q4 2022 financial results were announced, revealing revenue growth and solid waste pricing improvements.

Casella Waste Systems reported a 12.5% increase in revenue for Q4 2022, driven by positive collection and disposal pricing. Net income decreased by 7.9% compared to the same period in 2021. The company exceeded $1 billion in revenues and $100 million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow in fiscal year 2022 for the first time in its history.

  • Revenues increased by 12.5% to $272.1 million for the quarter.
  • Overall solid waste pricing increased by 6.2%, with collection pricing up 6.7% and disposal pricing up 5.4%.
  • Net income decreased by 7.9% to $8.4 million for the quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 9.3% to $56.2 million for the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$272M

Previous: $242M+12.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.18

Previous: $0.21-14.3%
Solid Waste Price Growth

6.2%

Previous: 4.3%+44.2%
Capital Expenditures

$43.3M

Previous: $41.7M+3.8%
Free Cash Flow

$21.6M

Previous: $6.93M+211.5%
Net Income

$8.4M

Previous: $9.1M-7.7%
Operating Income

$17.2M

Previous: $16.3M+5.5%
Gross Profit

$87.8M

Previous: $79M+11.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$71.2M

Previous: $33.8M+110.5%
Total Assets

$1.45B

Previous: $1.28B+12.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.57M

Previous: $2.84M-9.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Casella · Revenue · Quarterly

$272M

Q4 2022+12.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Casella · $199M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Collection
    $139M+16.5%
  • Disposal
    $58.5M+7.5%
  • Solid Waste Processing
    $2.25M-10.9%

Forward guidance

Casella provided guidance for fiscal year 2023, estimating revenues between $1.150 billion and $1.180 billion, net income between $56 million and $62 million, Adjusted EBITDA between $266 million and $272 million, net cash provided by operating activities between $227 million and $233 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $119 million and $125 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth of between 6.0% and 8.7% is expected in fiscal year 2023.
  • Approximately 1.4% of revenue growth from the roll-over impact of acquisitions completed during fiscal year 2022.
  • Solid Waste business revenue growth of between 9.7% and 11.2%.
  • Price growth from 6.0% to 7.0% in the Solid Waste business.
  • Volume growth from 0.5% to 1.0% in the Solid Waste business.

Headwinds

  • Guidance assumes a stable economic environment for the remainder of 2023, with a year-over-year headwind from lower recycling commodity values during the first half of the year.
  • Resource Solutions business revenue growth of between (3.7)% and 2.3%.
  • Lower recycling commodity prices are expected to offset positive price and volumes in the Resource Solutions business.
  • Capital expenditures of approximately $141 million, which includes approximately $18 million of non-recurring capital associated with acquisition integration.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities will be negatively impacted in fiscal year 2023 as the company plans to spend approximately $11.0 million on landfill capping, closure and post-closure expenditures.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

36 / 59 earnings

Positive

+27.5%

Q1 2010

Best reaction

-7.6%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+9.7%+6.7%+3.7%
Q4 2025-5.8%-12.0%-23.3%
Q3 2025+7.1%+8.6%+16.4%
Q1 2025-0.7%+2.5%-0.1%
Q4 2024+0.1%+7.8%+0.7%
Q3 2024-4.4%-2.9%+10.5%
Q2 2024+1.8%-1.5%+4.2%
Q1 2024-5.2%-4.8%+5.0%
Q4 2023-0.1%-1.4%+4.5%
Q3 2023+4.1%+5.7%+10.8%
Q2 2023-4.7%-2.4%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.8%+3.4%+6.7%
Q4 2022-4.4%-4.9%-1.9%
Q3 2022+3.9%+6.8%+10.3%
Q2 2022+6.2%+7.0%+7.7%
Q1 2022-5.6%-11.9%-16.4%
Q4 2021+1.0%-4.1%+17.2%
Q3 2021+4.6%+5.1%+3.3%
Q2 2021+6.1%+7.4%+13.1%
Q1 2021+0.7%+0.6%+1.1%
Q4 2020+1.6%+0.3%+7.6%
Q3 2020-3.0%+0.3%+7.2%
Q2 2020+0.3%+2.1%+5.6%
Q1 2020+7.0%+6.4%+13.8%
Q4 2019-2.5%-3.3%-26.0%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.2%+9.7%
Q2 2019+3.8%+2.9%+4.4%
Q1 2019+0.5%+0.6%+3.1%
Q4 2018+0.4%-0.7%-0.4%
Q3 2018-7.6%-4.8%+0.3%
Q2 2018+1.3%+2.4%+1.4%
Q1 2018+7.7%+0.2%-4.7%
Q4 2017-2.2%-5.4%-8.0%
Q3 2017+12.0%+6.7%+14.2%
Q2 2017-7.2%-5.3%+0.9%
Q1 2017-0.6%-1.1%-1.6%
Q4 2016+10.2%+12.1%+20.8%
Q3 2016+3.1%+6.1%+20.1%
Q2 2016+4.3%+5.5%+2.7%
Q1 2016+0.4%
Q4 2015+2.5%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.0%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q3 2013-2.0%
Q2 2014-1.3%
Q2 2013+6.5%
Q1 2013+5.9%
Q4 2012+8.3%
Q2 2012+8.3%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2012+4.5%
Q1 2011-0.6%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q2 2010+1.8%
Q1 2010+27.5%
Q4 2009+2.5%

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