NASDAQ$CWST

Casella Waste Systems Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Financial results exceeded expectations with strong operating execution, real-time cost controls and disciplined cash flow management.

Casella Waste Systems reported revenues of $202.7 million for the quarter, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period in 2019. Net income was $15.1 million, up 22.0% from the prior year. The company also raised its fiscal year 2020 guidance for revenue, net income, Adjusted EBITDA, net cash provided by operating activities, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow.

  • Revenues were $202.7 million for the quarter, up $4.1 million, or up 2.1%, from the same period in 2019.
  • Overall solid waste pricing for the quarter was up 4.0%, with collection pricing up 3.7%, and landfill pricing up 6.9%, from the same period in 2019.
  • Net income was $15.1 million for the quarter, up $2.7 million, or up 22.0%, from the same period in 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, was $51.3 million for the quarter, up $2.8 million, or up 5.9%, from the same period in 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$203M

Previous: $199M+2.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.37

Previous: $0.37+0.0%
Solid Waste Price Growth

4.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$77.3M

Previous: -$76M-1.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$62.2M

Previous: -$63.6M+2.3%
Net Income

$15.1M

Previous: $12.4M+22.0%
Operating Income

$20.6M

Previous: $18.5M+11.6%
Gross Profit

$72.3M

Previous: $67.3M+7.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$21.1M

Previous: $5.03M+320.2%
Total Assets

$994M

Previous: $936M+6.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.97M

Previous: $1.9M+3.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Casella · Revenue · Quarterly

$203M

Q3 2020+2.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Casella · $152M total across 3 segments · Q3 2020

  • Collection
    $102M
  • Disposal
    $47.6M
  • Solid Waste Processing
    $2.19M

Forward guidance

The Company updated guidance for fiscal year 2020 by estimating revenues between $760 million and $775 million, net income between $30 million and $34 million, Adjusted EBITDA between $166 million and $170 million, net cash provided by operating activities between $132 million and $136 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $60 million and $64 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenues between $760 million and $775 million (raised from $755 million to $770 million).
  • Net income between $30 million and $34 million (raised from $23 million to $28 million).
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $166 million and $170 million (raised from $158 million to $163 million).
  • Net cash provided by operating activities between $132 million and $136 million (raised from $122 million to $126 million).
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $60 million and $64 million (raised from $53 million to $57 million).

Headwinds

  • There are still many variables outside of our control, such as new waves of COVID-19.
  • Additional stay-at-home orders and impacts on the economy as the Federal stimulus programs run their course.
  • Guidance ranges assume a modestly declining to stable economic environment for the remainder of the year.
  • Guidance ranges do not contemplate a severe relapse of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • New stay-at-home orders, which may negatively impact commercial and general economic activity in our markets through the remainder of 2020.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

36 / 59 earnings

Positive

+27.5%

Q1 2010

Best reaction

-7.6%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+9.7%+6.7%+3.7%
Q4 2025-5.8%-12.0%-23.3%
Q3 2025+7.1%+8.6%+16.4%
Q1 2025-0.7%+2.5%-0.1%
Q4 2024+0.1%+7.8%+0.7%
Q3 2024-4.4%-2.9%+10.5%
Q2 2024+1.8%-1.5%+4.2%
Q1 2024-5.2%-4.8%+5.0%
Q4 2023-0.1%-1.4%+4.5%
Q3 2023+4.1%+5.7%+10.8%
Q2 2023-4.7%-2.4%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.8%+3.4%+6.7%
Q4 2022-4.4%-4.9%-1.9%
Q3 2022+3.9%+6.8%+10.3%
Q2 2022+6.2%+7.0%+7.7%
Q1 2022-5.6%-11.9%-16.4%
Q4 2021+1.0%-4.1%+17.2%
Q3 2021+4.6%+5.1%+3.3%
Q2 2021+6.1%+7.4%+13.1%
Q1 2021+0.7%+0.6%+1.1%
Q4 2020+1.6%+0.3%+7.6%
Q3 2020-3.0%+0.3%+7.2%
Q2 2020+0.3%+2.1%+5.6%
Q1 2020+7.0%+6.4%+13.8%
Q4 2019-2.5%-3.3%-26.0%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.2%+9.7%
Q2 2019+3.8%+2.9%+4.4%
Q1 2019+0.5%+0.6%+3.1%
Q4 2018+0.4%-0.7%-0.4%
Q3 2018-7.6%-4.8%+0.3%
Q2 2018+1.3%+2.4%+1.4%
Q1 2018+7.7%+0.2%-4.7%
Q4 2017-2.2%-5.4%-8.0%
Q3 2017+12.0%+6.7%+14.2%
Q2 2017-7.2%-5.3%+0.9%
Q1 2017-0.6%-1.1%-1.6%
Q4 2016+10.2%+12.1%+20.8%
Q3 2016+3.1%+6.1%+20.1%
Q2 2016+4.3%+5.5%+2.7%
Q1 2016+0.4%
Q4 2015+2.5%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.0%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q3 2013-2.0%
Q2 2014-1.3%
Q2 2013+6.5%
Q1 2013+5.9%
Q4 2012+8.3%
Q2 2012+8.3%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q2 2011-2.1%
Q1 2012+4.5%
Q1 2011-0.6%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q2 2010+1.8%
Q1 2010+27.5%
Q4 2009+2.5%

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