NASDAQ$CERT

Certara Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong fourth quarter results driven by improved execution across both software and services.

Certara's fourth-quarter revenue reached $88.0 million, a 2% increase year-over-year. The company experienced a net loss of $12.5 million, influenced by a $12.8 million increase in the fair value of contingent considerations, primarily related to Vyasa Analytics. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $29.6 million.

  • Revenue was $88.0 million, a 2% increase compared to Q4 2022.
  • Net loss was $12.5 million, compared to a net income of $9.2 million in Q4 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $29.6 million, compared to $31.9 million in Q4 2022.
  • Diluted loss per share was $(0.08), as compared to diluted earnings of $0.06 in Q4 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$88M

Previous: $86.6M+1.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: $0.16-43.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.37M

Previous: $181K-2513.8%
Net Income

-$12.5M

Previous: $9.2M-235.9%
Operating Income

-$8.47M

Previous: $11.4M-174.4%
Gross Profit

$41.8M

Previous: $54.9M-23.7%
R&D Expense

$8.02M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Certara · Revenue · Quarterly

$88M

Q4 2023+1.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Certara · $90.3M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Services
    $57.3M
  • Software
    $33M

Forward guidance

Certara is providing its guidance for full year 2024. We expect the following:

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2024 revenue to be in the range of $385 million to $400 million.
  • Full year adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow with expected margin to be in the range of 31-33%.
  • Full year adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $0.41-$0.46.
  • Fully diluted shares are expected to be in the range of 160 million to 162 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-4.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-6.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.8%

Avg return

30 days after

33%

8 / 24 earnings

Positive

+28.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-23.0%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-18.9%-29.2%-17.9%
Q4 2025+3.3%+9.9%-12.7%
Q3 2025-23.0%-26.5%-18.2%
Q1 2025-11.0%-6.3%-8.5%
Q3 2024+6.6%+5.6%+5.2%
Q2 2024-12.6%-16.1%-23.1%
Q1 2024-7.3%-3.6%-2.6%
Q4 2023+7.8%+9.6%+5.3%
Q3 2023+0.6%+3.5%+30.6%
Q2 2023-10.0%-6.5%-19.5%
Q1 2023-9.5%-12.1%-18.9%
Q4 2022+19.4%+18.4%+33.1%
Q3 2022+28.1%+37.6%+64.0%
Q2 2022-15.6%-27.2%-32.6%
Q1 2022-2.5%-11.3%-1.4%
Q4 2021-13.5%-21.9%-15.2%
Q4 2019-13.5%-21.9%-15.2%
Q3 2021-5.5%-7.4%-33.7%
Q3 2020-5.5%-7.4%-33.7%
Q2 2020+0.6%+0.3%+34.9%
Q2 2021+2.3%-0.0%+35.3%
Q1 2020-0.1%-7.9%-10.7%
Q1 2021-6.1%-9.9%-16.4%
Q4 2020-22.2%-23.5%-19.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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