NASDAQ$CERT

Certara Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Certara's fourth quarter results for 2020 were released, showing revenue growth and improved profitability, along with the successful completion of their IPO.

Certara reported a 20% increase in revenue, reaching $64.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. The company's net loss was ($54.4) million, and adjusted EBITDA was $22.2 million. The revenue growth was driven primarily by technology enabled services and subscription software.

  • Revenue was $64.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing year-over-year growth of 20%.
  • Reported net loss was ($54.4) million in the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $22.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing year-over-year growth of 36%.
  • Certara completed an initial public offering of 14.6 million shares, raising $316.3 million in net proceeds to the Company.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$64.6M

Previous: $209M-69.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: -$0.07+228.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$22.2M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$11.8M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$81K

Previous: $2.11M-96.2%
Free Cash Flow

$12.6M

Previous: $35.9M-64.9%
Net Income

-$54.4M

Previous: -$6.02M-804.4%
Operating Income

-$53.5M

Previous: $4.05M-1421.2%
Gross Profit

$29.7M

Previous: $31.9M-6.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$271M

Previous: $29.3M+827.7%
Total Assets

$1.27B

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Certara · Revenue · Quarterly

$64.6M

Q4 2020-69%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 9 quarters(78%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Certara · $90.3M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Services
    $57.3M
  • Software
    $33M

Forward guidance

Certara expects full year 2021 revenue to be in the range of $272 million to $285 million. Certara expects full year 2021 Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $98 million to $102 million. Full year 2021 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share is expected to be in the range of $0.20 to $0.24.

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2021 revenue to be in the range of $272 million to $285 million.
  • Full year 2021 Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $98 million to $102 million.
  • Full year 2021 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share is expected to be in the range of $0.20 to $0.24.
  • The expected fully diluted shares for 2021 will be 153 million to 155 million.
  • The expected effective tax rate for 2021 will be 45% to 50%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-4.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-6.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.8%

Avg return

30 days after

33%

8 / 24 earnings

Positive

+28.1%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-23.0%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-18.9%-29.2%-17.9%
Q4 2025+3.3%+9.9%-12.7%
Q3 2025-23.0%-26.5%-18.2%
Q1 2025-11.0%-6.3%-8.5%
Q3 2024+6.6%+5.6%+5.2%
Q2 2024-12.6%-16.1%-23.1%
Q1 2024-7.3%-3.6%-2.6%
Q4 2023+7.8%+9.6%+5.3%
Q3 2023+0.6%+3.5%+30.6%
Q2 2023-10.0%-6.5%-19.5%
Q1 2023-9.5%-12.1%-18.9%
Q4 2022+19.4%+18.4%+33.1%
Q3 2022+28.1%+37.6%+64.0%
Q2 2022-15.6%-27.2%-32.6%
Q1 2022-2.5%-11.3%-1.4%
Q4 2021-13.5%-21.9%-15.2%
Q4 2019-13.5%-21.9%-15.2%
Q3 2021-5.5%-7.4%-33.7%
Q3 2020-5.5%-7.4%-33.7%
Q2 2020+0.6%+0.3%+34.9%
Q2 2021+2.3%-0.0%+35.3%
Q1 2020-0.1%-7.9%-10.7%
Q1 2021-6.1%-9.9%-16.4%
Q4 2020-22.2%-23.5%-19.1%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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