NYSE$SIG

Signet Jewelers LTD · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Signet's Q4 2023 performance reflected revenue decrease but EPS increase, achieved through strategic initiatives and cost management.

Signet Jewelers reported Q4 2023 results with a decrease in total sales by 5.2% to $2.7 billion, but an increase in GAAP diluted EPS to $5.02 and non-GAAP diluted EPS to $5.52. The company's performance was impacted by weather in the US, labor strikes in the UK, and currency headwinds, but benefited from marketing initiatives and strategic transformation. Signet is guiding for $11.07 to $11.59 in non-GAAP diluted EPS in Fiscal 2024.

  • Total sales decreased by 5.2% to $2.7 billion, but up 23.8% compared to FY20.
  • GAAP diluted EPS increased to $5.02, and non-GAAP diluted EPS increased to $5.52.
  • Same store sales decreased by 9.1% compared to last year, but up 16.4% to FY20.
  • Cash and cash equivalents at year-end were $1.2 billion, down approximately $252 million from Q4 of FY22.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.67B

Previous: $2.81B-5.2%
EPS (adj)

$5.52

Previous: $5.01+10.2%
Capital Expenditures

$44.6M

Previous: $79.1M-43.6%
Free Cash Flow

$659M

Previous: $694M-5.1%
Net Income

$277M

Previous: $314M-11.8%
Operating Income

$370M

Previous: $402M-8.2%
Gross Profit

$1.11B

Previous: $1.15B-3.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.2B

Previous: $1.42B-15.4%
Total Assets

$6.62B

Previous: $6.58B+0.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.7M

Previous: $9.4M-18.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Signet · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.67B

Q4 2023-5.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Signet · $2.15B total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • North America
    $1.95B
  • International
    $186M
  • Other
    $13.3M

Forward guidance

Signet provided its first quarter and full year Fiscal 2024 guidance on a non-GAAP basis, with total sales expected to be $1.62 billion to $1.65 billion for the first quarter and $7.67 billion to $7.84 billion for the full year. Operating income is projected to be $97 million to $108 million for the first quarter and $765 million to $800 million for the full year, with diluted EPS expected to be $11.07 to $11.59 for the full year.

Tailwinds

  • Annual US Jewelry industry revenues are expected to be down mid-single digits. The Company's guidance contemplates market share gains against this total industry performance range.
  • Planned capital investments up to $200 million, reflecting investments in banner differentiation, including stores, Connected Commerce capabilities, and digital and technology advancement.
  • The Company expects headwinds to continue in engagements with recovery later in Fiscal 2024, and continue to rebound in Fiscal 2025.
  • Signet’s efforts to mitigate supply chain disruption have been effective thus far. Guidance assumes no significant disruptions in availability of inventory.
  • Annual tax rate of approximately 19% assumes no discrete items and no changes in current tax laws during Fiscal 2024.

Headwinds

  • The Company expects headwinds to continue in engagements with recovery later in Fiscal 2024.
  • With the slowing economy and continued inflationary pressures we do not expect to see a rebound in the lower price point consumer in the coming year.
  • Signet also anticipates a continued shift of consumer discretionary spending away from the jewelry category reflecting decelerating levels of consumer confidence and pent-up demand for experience-oriented categories.
  • Signet expects further impacts of inflation and other macroeconomic factors on consumer spending.
  • Earnings per share for Fiscal 2024 excludes the impact of any further share repurchases beyond the approximately 0.3 million shares repurchased in Fiscal 2024 through the date of this release, and includes the dilutive effect of the 8.1 million preferred shares.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

39 / 68 earnings

Positive

+27.6%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-30.1%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2026+13.0%-9.4%-0.3%
Q3 2026-7.2%-13.3%-13.4%
Q2 2026+2.2%+6.4%+11.9%
Q1 2026+12.2%+16.3%+25.8%
Q4 2025+17.3%+26.9%+14.7%
Q3 2025-7.0%-14.1%-21.6%
Q2 2025+16.7%+19.8%+23.1%
Q1 2025-19.6%-15.8%-18.8%
Q4 2024-12.2%-7.2%-6.8%
Q3 2024+12.4%+14.7%+16.5%
Q2 2024+10.0%+4.3%+0.5%
Q1 2024-13.9%-15.7%-1.4%
Q4 2023+8.0%+10.0%+9.0%
Q3 2023+27.6%+18.1%+16.1%
Q2 2023-15.6%-18.2%-12.5%
Q1 2023-0.9%-1.8%-10.5%
Q4 2022+3.1%+6.4%-0.2%
Q3 2022-9.1%-3.9%-6.4%
Q2 2022+3.3%-3.3%+1.1%
Q1 2022+22.5%+21.6%+25.5%
Q4 2021+2.7%-8.8%+6.9%
Q3 2021-1.8%-5.1%-8.5%
Q2 2021+3.7%-3.7%+4.9%
Q1 2021-27.2%-32.9%-40.1%
Q4 2020+7.8%-12.0%+3.8%
Q3 2020+23.6%+24.9%+14.4%
Q2 2020+27.5%+53.0%+47.6%
Q1 2020+1.6%+2.0%-10.9%
Q4 2019+2.4%-6.1%-16.3%
Q3 2019-22.9%-30.7%-30.7%
Q2 2019+17.5%+15.6%+20.6%
Q1 2019+22.1%+28.0%+33.6%
Q4 2018-21.6%-17.6%-19.4%
Q3 2018-30.1%-34.3%-26.5%
Q2 2018+20.8%+21.0%+24.1%
Q1 2018-9.6%-12.2%+7.1%
Q4 2017+8.4%+5.3%+5.9%
Q3 2017+5.6%+4.7%+5.1%
Q2 2017-15.5%-16.3%-17.3%
Q1 2017-8.1%-8.7%-24.3%
Q4 2016+4.0%
Q3 2016-3.7%
Q2 2016+15.1%
Q1 2016-2.9%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015+5.2%
Q2 2015+9.1%
Q1 2015+4.7%
Q4 2014+7.7%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q1 2014-2.4%
Q4 2013+6.8%
Q3 2013-2.7%
Q2 2013-2.0%
Q1 2013-7.3%
Q4 2012-3.5%
Q3 2012-3.8%
Q2 2012+6.5%
Q1 2011+5.7%
Q1 2012-1.8%
Q4 2009+2.7%
Q4 2011+2.7%
Q3 2011+0.4%
Q3 2010+0.4%
Q2 2010-6.0%
Q4 2010-6.0%
Q2 2011-6.0%

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