NYSE$RDN

Radian Group Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Radian's first quarter earnings reflected a strong start to the year, marked by increased book value per share and a solid return on equity.

Radian Group Inc. reported a net income of $152 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. Total revenues reached $319 million, demonstrating a 3% year-over-year growth. The company's book value per share grew by 12% year-over-year, and the primary mortgage insurance in force reached an all-time high of $271 billion.

  • Net income for the first quarter of 2024 was $152 million, or $0.98 per diluted share.
  • Return on equity was 13.8%, and adjusted net operating return on equity was 14.5%.
  • Primary mortgage insurance in force grew 4% year-over-year, reaching $271 billion.
  • Total revenue increased 3% year-over-year to $319 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$319M

Previous: $311M+2.8%
EPS

$0.98

Previous: $0.98+0.0%
Net premiums earned

$234M

Previous: $231M+1.3%
New insurance written

$11.5B

No prior period
Primary insurance in force

$271B

No prior period
Book value per share

$29.30

No prior period
Holding company liquidity

$1.09B

No prior period
Return on equity

13.8%

Previous: 15.7%-12.1%
Adjusted operating ROE

14.1%

No prior period
New defaults

11.8K

No prior period
Primary delinquent loans

20.9K

No prior period
MI net claims paid

$3M

No prior period
Persistency rate (12m)

84.3%

No prior period
Persistency rate (annualized)

85.3%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$152M

Previous: $158M-3.4%
Net Income

$152M

Previous: $158M-3.4%
Operating Income

$228M

Previous: $193M+17.7%
Gross Profit

$310M

Previous: $300M+3.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Radian · Revenue · Quarterly

$319M

Q1 2024+2.8%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Radian · $289M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Mortgage Insurance
    $289M+2.7%

Forward guidance

Radian initiated a series of transactions to increase its financial strength and reduce holding company leverage by year-end 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Issued $625 million aggregate principal amount of 6.200% senior unsecured notes due May 2029.
  • Utilized a portion of the proceeds from the new debt issuance to redeem all of its $525 million aggregate principal amount of 6.625% senior unsecured notes due March 2025.
  • Intends to retire its $450 million aggregate principal amount of 4.500% senior unsecured notes due October 2024 at or prior to maturity without incurring any additional indebtedness.
  • This is expected to reduce the holding company debt to capital ratio to below 20% by year-end 2024.
  • In the first quarter of 2024, Radian Guaranty paid an ordinary dividend to Radian Group of $100 million.

Headwinds

  • The health of the U.S. housing market generally and changes in economic conditions that impact the size of the insurable mortgage market, the credit performance of our insured mortgage portfolio and our business prospects, including changes resulting from inflationary pressures, the higher interest rate environment and the risk of higher unemployment rates, as well as other macroeconomic stresses and uncertainties, including potential impacts resulting from political and geopolitical events
  • Changes in the way customers, investors, ratings agencies, regulators or legislators perceive our performance, financial strength and future prospects
  • Radian Guaranty’s ability to remain eligible under the PMIERs to insure loans purchased by the GSEs
  • Our ability to maintain an adequate level of capital in our insurance subsidiaries to satisfy current and future regulatory requirements
  • Changes in the charters or business practices of, or rules or regulations imposed by or applicable to, the GSEs or loans purchased by the GSEs

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

31 / 65 earnings

Positive

+19.2%

Q2 2011

Best reaction

-18.8%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.0%-2.6%-10.2%
Q4 2025+1.6%+6.3%+0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+3.0%+1.2%
Q1 2025+1.9%+5.1%+6.9%
Q4 2024-1.8%-4.8%-6.3%
Q3 2024+4.6%+5.8%+7.0%
Q2 2024-4.2%-8.7%-2.7%
Q1 2024+2.9%+4.8%+4.6%
Q4 2023-4.5%-2.1%+3.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+6.6%+1.9%
Q2 2023+2.0%+4.0%+1.1%
Q1 2023+2.1%+5.9%+11.3%
Q4 2022-1.7%-1.1%-5.4%
Q3 2022-1.7%-0.8%-8.8%
Q2 2022+0.8%+0.0%-5.6%
Q1 2022+3.9%+0.1%-1.2%
Q4 2021+2.1%+2.4%-2.4%
Q3 2021-7.6%-6.8%-14.0%
Q2 2021-2.1%+2.5%+4.3%
Q1 2021-4.8%-4.5%-7.3%
Q4 2020-1.2%-1.0%+6.9%
Q3 2020-5.1%-2.6%+5.7%
Q2 2020+3.8%+4.7%+5.1%
Q1 2020+8.8%+6.0%+31.4%
Q4 2019-1.1%-3.0%-11.7%
Q3 2019+1.0%+1.0%+4.0%
Q2 2019-3.4%-7.0%-3.8%
Q1 2019+1.6%+2.4%-3.7%
Q4 2018-1.2%+1.3%+2.9%
Q3 2018+5.3%+3.8%+0.3%
Q2 2018+4.8%+8.2%+15.0%
Q1 2018-0.6%+3.5%+7.6%
Q4 2017+1.7%-2.0%-6.3%
Q3 2017+4.4%+3.3%+3.0%
Q2 2017+1.5%+0.9%+0.5%
Q1 2017-12.7%-14.3%-14.4%
Q4 2016-1.7%-0.3%+1.0%
Q3 2016-4.5%-7.8%+1.3%
Q2 2016+4.6%+1.5%+10.3%
Q1 2016+3.8%
Q4 2015+3.1%
Q3 2015-11.5%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014-3.6%
Q3 2014+8.8%
Q2 2014+5.3%
Q1 2014+3.7%
Q4 2013+6.1%
Q3 2013-10.5%
Q2 2013+1.7%
Q1 2013-0.5%
Q4 2012+2.7%
Q3 2012+14.7%
Q2 2012+4.7%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011-1.9%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q3 2011-18.8%
Q3 2010-18.8%
Q2 2011+19.2%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2010-0.2%
Q1 2011-0.2%

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