NYSE$PMT

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

PennyMac reported net income of $51.0 million for the third quarter of 2023.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported a net income attributable to common shareholders of $51.0 million, or $0.51 per common share, for the third quarter of 2023. The company's performance was driven by strong results across all segments, which were partially offset by tax impacts. The company also upsized a term loan, redeemed FMSR term notes, and issued unsecured senior notes to strengthen its balance sheet.

  • Net income attributable to common shareholders was $51.0 million, up from $14.2 million in the prior quarter.
  • Book value per common share increased to $16.01 at September 30, 2023, from $15.81 at June 30, 2023.
  • Conventional correspondent loan production volumes for PMT’s account totaled $2.8 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB).
  • Invested $64 million into opportunistic investments throughout the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

-$25M

Previous: -$4.42M-465.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.51

Previous: $0.01+5000.0%
Conventional Conforming and Non-Agency Loan Volume

$2.8B

Previous: $10.2B-72.5%
Free Cash Flow

$61.4M

Previous: $11.9M+415.6%
Net Income

$61.4M

Previous: $11.9M+415.6%
Operating Income

-$74.9M

Previous: -$69.5M-7.7%
Gross Profit

-$25M

Previous: -$4.42M-465.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$236M

Previous: $58.9M+301.1%
Total Assets

$13.2B

Previous: $13.9B-5.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.42M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

PennyMac · Revenue · Quarterly

-$25M

Q3 2023+465.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 1 of 15 quarters(7%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PennyMac · $163M total across 4 segments · Q3 2023

  • Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies
    $104M-17.3%
  • Credit Sensitive Strategies
    $41.5M+1531.8%
  • Correspondent Production
    $15.2M-44.4%
  • Corporate
    $2.25M+543.4%

Forward guidance

PennyMac expects the long-term return potential of its core assets to remain strong, supported by low rate mortgages with strong credit characteristics and significant home equity. With the expectation that interest rates remain higher for longer, they expect the runoff of these portfolios to remain low, driving strong expected risk-adjusted returns for PMT over a longer period of time.

Tailwinds

  • Strong long-term return potential of core assets.
  • Low rate mortgages with strong credit characteristics.
  • Significant home equity supporting investments.
  • Low portfolio runoff due to higher interest rates.
  • Strong expected risk-adjusted returns over a longer period.

Headwinds

  • Meaningful income contributions from all three of PMT’s investment strategies were partially offset by a provision for income taxes driven by fair value gains in its taxable REIT subsidiary.
  • Changes in interest rates
  • Volatility in the Company’s industry, the debt or equity markets, the general economy or the real estate finance and real estate markets
  • The degree and nature of the Company’s competition
  • The performance, financial condition and liquidity of borrowers

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

28 / 66 earnings

Positive

+16.4%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-14.3%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.1%-11.3%-16.2%
Q4 2025-10.8%-8.4%-9.3%
Q3 2025+8.4%+7.7%+8.3%
Q2 2025-0.2%-0.1%+0.6%
Q1 2025-6.9%-4.5%-7.5%
Q4 2024+5.5%+5.1%+13.7%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.5%-3.4%
Q2 2024-8.1%-5.1%-5.4%
Q1 2024+1.7%+0.7%-2.4%
Q4 2023-2.6%-4.1%-0.4%
Q3 2023+16.4%+19.9%+30.5%
Q2 2023-10.1%-11.5%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+1.7%-1.2%
Q4 2022-3.1%-6.7%-14.7%
Q3 2022+10.6%+8.7%+21.1%
Q2 2022-2.4%-0.2%-8.3%
Q1 2022-3.0%-3.9%+0.7%
Q4 2021-6.2%-4.0%-9.3%
Q3 2021-4.2%-6.6%-11.2%
Q2 2021-1.3%-3.6%+0.2%
Q1 2021-1.6%-5.2%-1.0%
Q4 2020+1.9%+0.3%+2.4%
Q3 2020+0.3%+7.7%+15.7%
Q2 2020-8.2%-5.2%-12.5%
Q1 2020+3.7%-5.9%+49.8%
Q4 2019+0.0%-1.2%-9.0%
Q3 2019+1.0%-0.9%+1.4%
Q2 2019-0.4%-1.2%-1.2%
Q1 2019+2.3%-0.9%-1.0%
Q4 2018+4.5%+0.6%+0.1%
Q3 2018+5.8%+6.2%+9.0%
Q2 2018+3.9%+2.8%+4.6%
Q1 2018+4.2%+2.9%+6.7%
Q4 2017+4.4%+5.5%+8.9%
Q3 2017-6.2%-7.6%-3.0%
Q2 2017-3.1%-1.2%-1.8%
Q1 2017-1.0%-2.7%+0.5%
Q4 2016-2.6%-2.2%-0.9%
Q3 2016+6.0%+8.7%+8.1%
Q2 2016-9.0%-6.3%-5.5%
Q1 2016+4.6%
Q4 2015-14.3%
Q3 2015+3.5%
Q2 2015-6.9%
Q1 2015-10.2%
Q4 2014-6.6%
Q3 2014-0.2%
Q2 2014+4.0%
Q1 2014-6.7%
Q4 2013-0.3%
Q3 2013-4.5%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013-1.1%
Q4 2011+0.6%
Q4 2012-2.7%
Q3 2012+0.6%
Q2 2012+0.6%
Q1 2011+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010-0.4%
Q2 2010-4.1%
Q2 2011-4.1%
Q4 2010-4.1%
Q1 2010+2.8%

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