NYSE$OSCR

Oscar Health Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Oscar Health reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, exceeding expectations for the full year and demonstrating progress towards profitability.

Oscar Health announced strong Q4 and full-year 2023 results, with core metrics exceeding expectations. The company delivered on its commitment for Insurance Company Adjusted EBITDA profitability and anticipates consolidated Adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2024. They served over 1.3 million members and are focused on sustainable margin expansion.

  • Oscar Health reported strong 2023 results, exceeding expectations for the full year.
  • The company delivered on its commitment for Insurance Company Adjusted EBITDA profitability.
  • Oscar Health has a clear path to consolidated Adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2024.
  • Oscar Health served more than 1.3 million members in 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.43B

Previous: $995M+43.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.66

Previous: -$1.05+37.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.1M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$291M

No prior period
Net Income

-$150M

Previous: -$227M+33.9%
Operating Income

-$145M

Previous: -$222M+34.6%
Gross Profit

$1.43B

Previous: $1.04B+37.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$26.1M

Previous: $29.1M-10.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Oscar Health · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.43B

Q4 2023+43.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company anticipates Total Revenue of $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion, a Medical Loss Ratio of 80.2% to 81.2%, a SG&A Expense Ratio of 20.5% to 21.0%, and Total Company Adjusted EBITDA of $125 million to $175 million.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue of $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion
  • Medical Loss Ratio of 80.2% to 81.2%
  • SG&A Expense Ratio of 20.5% to 21.0%
  • Total Company Adjusted EBITDA of $125 million to $175 million
  • Clear line of sight into consolidated Adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2024

Headwinds

  • Actual results may differ materially depending on a number of factors.
  • Uncertainty in estimating stock-based compensation expense.
  • Dependence on various factors, some of which are outside of Oscar’s control.
  • New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict which will arise.
  • Heightened competition in the markets in which we participate

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+3.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+5.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.5%

Avg return

30 days after

64%

16 / 25 earnings

Positive

+30.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-23.9%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.7%+22.6%+36.6%
Q4 2025+1.7%+6.0%+2.7%
Q3 2025-2.8%-12.8%-1.5%
Q1 2025+30.0%+28.7%+18.0%
Q4 2024+3.1%-3.7%+4.5%
Q3 2024-12.9%-12.8%+0.4%
Q2 2024+7.2%+4.4%-1.4%
Q1 2024+9.3%+14.1%+2.8%
Q4 2023+22.7%+27.5%+7.7%
Q3 2023+23.5%+24.5%+42.0%
Q2 2023+8.6%+1.9%-10.5%
Q1 2023-8.8%-6.6%+17.8%
Q4 2022+21.0%+36.2%-3.9%
Q3 2022-23.9%-4.5%-11.3%
Q2 2022+19.9%+21.1%-3.7%
Q1 2022-8.9%-2.0%-25.0%
Q4 2019+6.3%+2.5%+39.1%
Q4 2021+2.4%+15.6%+21.9%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.3%-12.7%
Q3 2021-23.3%-25.2%-33.0%
Q2 2020-16.4%-11.8%+19.4%
Q2 2021-0.9%-12.0%+17.9%
Q4 2020+15.2%+14.5%+23.1%
Q1 2020+15.2%+14.5%+23.1%
Q1 2021+3.6%+4.2%+14.0%

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