NYSE$NNN

National Retail Properties Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

NNN REIT, Inc. announced operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023.

NNN REIT had a solid start to 2023 with property acquisitions of $155 million at a 7% initial cap rate. The company maintained high occupancy levels and achieved 3.9% Core FFO growth.

  • FFO per share increased 6.7% over prior year results
  • Core FFO per share increased 3.9% over prior year results
  • AFFO per share increased 3.8% over prior year results
  • Maintained high occupancy levels at 99.4%, with a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.3 years, at March 31, 2023 as compared to 99.4% at December 31, 2022 and 99.2% at March 31, 2022

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$204M

Previous: $190M+7.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.80

Previous: $0.77+3.9%
Properties Owned

3.4K

No prior period
Total GLA

99.4

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$90.2M

Previous: $81.4M+10.8%
Net Income

$90.2M

Previous: $81.4M+10.8%
Operating Income

$129M

Previous: $118M+9.3%
Gross Profit

$204M

Previous: $190M+7.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.24M

Previous: $53.7M-94.0%
Total Assets

$8.24B

Previous: $7.77B+6.0%

Revenue & EPS history

NNN · Revenue · Quarterly

$204M

Q1 2023+7.3%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

NNN · $204M total across 5 segments · Q1 2023

  • Rental income - operating leases
    $198M+7.5%
  • Tenant reimbursements
    $4.54M-1.3%
  • Percentage rent
    $763K+8.8%
  • Interest & other income
    $478K-7.4%
  • Direct financing lease income
    $144K-4.6%

Forward guidance

NNN REIT provided 2023 earnings guidance, expecting Core FFO per share to be between $3.14 and $3.20 and AFFO per share between $3.19 and $3.25.

Tailwinds

  • Net earnings per common share excluding any gains on disposition of real estate, impairment charges, and executive retirement costs $1.87 - $1.93 per share
  • Real estate depreciation and amortization per share $1.27 per share
  • Core FFO per share $3.14 - $3.20 per share
  • AFFO per share $3.19 - $3.25 per share
  • Acquisition volume $500 - $600 Million

Headwinds

  • General and administrative expenses $43 - $45 Million
  • Real estate expenses, net of tenant reimbursements $8 - $10 Million
  • Disposition volume $100 - $120 Million
  • Guidance is based on current plans and assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties more fully described in this press release and the company's reports filed with the Commission.
  • Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, which may cause the company’s actual future results to differ materially from expected results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.9%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-5.6%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%+2.0%+2.3%
Q4 2025-0.5%+2.4%+3.9%
Q3 2025-2.6%-0.5%-0.6%
Q1 2025+0.3%+2.2%+1.6%
Q4 2024+5.7%+6.3%+9.9%
Q3 2024-5.6%-6.9%-4.3%
Q2 2024+3.7%+4.1%+4.7%
Q1 2024+2.6%+3.9%+3.1%
Q4 2023-0.7%-0.7%+6.4%
Q3 2023+6.9%+6.6%+13.8%
Q2 2023-5.4%-4.6%-7.6%
Q1 2023+0.4%+2.7%-1.7%
Q4 2022-0.3%-0.6%-8.7%
Q3 2022+0.9%+1.9%+9.3%
Q2 2022-0.7%-0.4%-4.7%
Q1 2022+5.3%+1.2%+2.8%
Q4 2021-1.4%-1.3%+0.7%
Q3 2021+1.6%+2.4%-2.7%
Q2 2021-1.9%-0.6%-2.2%
Q1 2021+0.0%+3.3%+1.8%
Q4 2020+0.5%-0.8%+5.1%
Q3 2020+5.1%+3.9%+19.0%
Q2 2020+1.4%+2.6%+2.3%
Q1 2020-3.4%+4.5%+16.5%
Q4 2019-2.4%-0.3%-23.5%
Q3 2019-1.1%-4.5%-4.4%
Q2 2019+1.8%+2.5%+7.5%
Q1 2019+0.7%+2.2%+1.7%
Q4 2018-3.3%-2.1%-0.5%
Q3 2018+0.3%+3.0%+7.1%
Q2 2018+0.9%+2.4%+3.3%
Q1 2018+1.2%+4.8%+8.9%
Q4 2017-1.1%+2.2%+2.0%
Q3 2017+1.4%+3.4%+3.8%
Q2 2017+1.5%+1.3%+4.6%
Q1 2017-1.0%-4.5%-8.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%+0.4%-2.2%
Q3 2016+0.1%+2.0%-3.3%
Q2 2016-2.1%-4.1%-6.6%
Q1 2016+3.5%
Q4 2015+1.2%
Q3 2015-0.5%
Q2 2015+0.8%
Q1 2015-5.0%
Q4 2014+1.1%
Q3 2014-0.1%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+1.6%
Q4 2013+1.6%
Q3 2013-2.4%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+2.5%
Q4 2012+1.4%
Q3 2012-1.3%
Q2 2012+0.3%
Q1 2012+0.8%
Q2 2009-0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q3 2011-2.6%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2010-1.1%
Q1 2011+0.7%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q3 2009-0.9%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q4 2009-0.8%
Q2 2010-0.8%

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