NYSE$NLY

Annaly Capital Management Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Annaly's financial performance reflected challenges in fixed income markets due to rising global yields, while strategic portfolio management and hedging helped navigate volatility.

Annaly Capital Management reported a GAAP net loss of ($1.21) per average common share and earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.66 per average common share for Q3 2023. The economic return was (8.8%) for the quarter, with a book value per common share of $18.25. The company maintained a total portfolio of $76.2 billion, including a $68.5 billion Agency portfolio, and actively managed its hedge position, increasing the hedge ratio from 105% to 115%.

  • GAAP net loss was ($1.21) per average common share, while earnings available for distribution (EAD) reached $0.66 per average common share.
  • The economic return for the third quarter was (8.8%), and the book value per common share stood at $18.25.
  • Total portfolio amounted to $76.2 billion, with $68.5 billion allocated to the highly liquid Agency portfolio.
  • The hedge ratio increased from 105% to 115% through active management of portfolio duration by adding longer-dated hedges.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$402M

Previous: -$795M+150.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.66

Previous: $1.06-37.7%
Net Interest Margin

-0.2%

Previous: 1.4%-114.1%
Yield on Assets

4.5%

Previous: 3.5%+29.4%
GAAP Cost of Liabilities

5.3%

Previous: 2.4%+121.4%
Net Interest Spread

-0.8%

Previous: 1.1%-171.6%
Experienced CPR

7.3%

Previous: 9.8%-25.5%
Long-Term CPR

7.1%

Previous: 7.6%-6.6%
Economic Leverage Ratio

6.4

Previous: 7.1-9.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$562M

Previous: -$275M-104.2%
Net Income

-$562M

Previous: -$275M-104.2%
Operating Income

$359M

Previous: -$838M+142.8%
Gross Profit

$402M

Previous: -$796M+150.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.24B

Previous: $1.47B-15.3%
Total Assets

$89.6B

Previous: $85.4B+5.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Annaly · Revenue · Quarterly

$402M

Q3 2023-150.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 15 quarters(27%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Annaly · $76B total across 3 segments · Q3 2020

  • Agency MBS
    $74.9B
  • Non-Agency MBS
    $718M
  • CRT Securities
    $412M

Forward guidance

While risks to the operating environment persist, Annaly expects to benefit from attractive investment returns across its three businesses and a supportive financing environment.

Tailwinds

  • Historically wide Agency MBS spreads provide ample compensation for above average volatility and technical challenges.
  • Residential Credit business continues to grow, bolstered by strong performance from the whole loan correspondent channel.
  • MSR portfolio is strengthened by stable cash flows and rising yields supporting valuations.
  • Company entered the quarter with lower leverage.
  • Company entered the quarter with substantial liquidity.

Headwinds

  • Fixed income markets faced challenges due to a rapid rise in global yields.
  • Agency MBS spreads widened amidst ongoing supply.
  • MBS runoff from Federal Reserve and bank portfolios contributed to spread widening.
  • Elevated volatility impacted market conditions.
  • Higher rates and spreads weighed on book value and economic return for the quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

33 / 73 earnings

Positive

+5.9%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-6.7%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.6%-0.7%-3.1%
Q4 2025-1.1%-5.9%-4.2%
Q3 2025-1.9%-1.1%+3.2%
Q2 2025+0.0%+0.4%+5.6%
Q1 2025-0.9%-3.0%-3.3%
Q4 2024+3.6%+3.7%+11.1%
Q3 2024+0.3%-2.3%+0.9%
Q2 2024-3.3%-1.7%-1.5%
Q1 2024+0.3%+2.4%+4.5%
Q4 2023-0.5%+0.9%+3.9%
Q3 2023-3.8%-3.8%+12.0%
Q2 2023-2.5%-2.4%-4.2%
Q1 2023+4.0%+1.8%-2.8%
Q4 2022-6.7%-6.0%-21.1%
Q3 2022+2.4%+4.9%+22.5%
Q2 2022+5.9%+7.6%+2.3%
Q1 2022+4.6%+2.8%+4.9%
Q4 2021-0.9%-5.1%-6.5%
Q3 2021-1.4%-0.8%-3.9%
Q2 2021+1.8%-0.6%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.0%+2.2%+4.0%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.9%+2.1%
Q3 2020-0.1%+1.8%+14.8%
Q2 2020+2.5%+2.6%+2.2%
Q1 2020-0.2%-2.2%-1.6%
Q4 2019+3.4%+4.3%-30.9%
Q3 2019+0.4%+1.3%+4.4%
Q2 2019-2.9%-4.7%-14.2%
Q1 2019-3.3%-4.9%-12.7%
Q4 2018-1.8%-2.5%-1.2%
Q3 2018-0.6%-0.9%+1.3%
Q2 2018-1.2%-2.0%-0.9%
Q1 2018-1.3%+1.2%+1.0%
Q4 2017+1.8%+2.2%+1.6%
Q3 2017-1.5%-3.7%+3.0%
Q2 2017+0.6%+0.2%+3.1%
Q1 2017-1.9%-2.1%+2.9%
Q4 2016+3.3%+3.4%+5.2%
Q3 2016-0.2%+0.3%-2.7%
Q2 2016+0.8%+1.3%-0.4%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015+1.2%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015+1.3%
Q1 2015+0.2%
Q4 2014-0.7%
Q3 2014-0.6%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-1.0%
Q4 2013+3.5%
Q3 2013-4.0%
Q2 2013+4.5%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2012-0.9%
Q3 2012-3.8%
Q2 2012-1.2%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011-0.7%
Q2 2011+1.9%
Q1 2011-0.5%
Q4 2010+1.2%
Q3 2010-0.7%
Q2 2010+2.1%
Q1 2009-2.5%
Q1 2010+1.4%
Q4 2007+2.5%
Q4 2009+2.5%
Q3 2008+1.3%
Q3 2009+1.3%
Q4 2008-0.8%
Q2 2008-0.8%
Q2 2009-0.8%

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