NYSE$LPX

Louisiana-Pacific Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in consolidated net sales and income from continuing operations compared to the same quarter last year, while reaffirming full year siding guidance.

LP Building Solutions reported a decrease in net sales by 15% to $728 million, and a decrease in income from continuing operations by $11 million to $118 million, compared to Q3 2022. The company reaffirmed its full-year siding guidance and expects OSB net sales to be sequentially lower in Q4 2023.

  • Siding net sales decreased by 13% to $345 million due to lower volumes, partially offset by higher prices.
  • OSB net sales decreased by 14% to $335 million, primarily due to lower volumes.
  • Consolidated net sales decreased by 15% to $728 million.
  • Income from continuing operations decreased by $11 million to $118 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$728M

Previous: $852M-14.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.62

Previous: $1.72-5.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$236M

Previous: -$282M+16.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$118M

Previous: -$56M-110.7%
Net Income

$118M

Previous: $226M-47.8%
Operating Income

$161M

Previous: $172M-6.4%
Gross Profit

$214M

Previous: $232M-7.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$160M

Previous: $469M-65.9%
Total Assets

$2.38B

Previous: $2.38B-0.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Louisiana-Pacific · Revenue · Quarterly

$728M

Q3 2023-14.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Louisiana-Pacific · $680M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Siding
    $345M-12.4%
  • OSB
    $335M-13.7%

Forward guidance

LP anticipates a year-over-year decrease in siding net sales for the full year 2023, and a sequential decrease in OSB net sales for the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is expected to be between $60 million and $80 million, and capital expenditures for 2023 are projected to range from $280 million to $295 million.

Headwinds

  • Siding full-year 2023 Net sales is expected to decrease year-over-year by approximately 10%.
  • OSB fourth quarter 2023 Net sales is expected to be sequentially lower than the third quarter 2023 by approximately 30%, assuming that OSB prices published by Random Lengths remain unchanged from those published on October 27, 2023
  • Under these assumptions, fourth quarter 2023 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $60 million to $80 million
  • Given our current outlook, capital expenditures for 2023 are expected to be in the range of $280 million to $295 million, including $100 million to $105 million for mill conversions, $130 million to $135 million for sustaining maintenance, and $50 million to $55 million for other strategic growth projects.
  • Guidance is subject to a number of known and unknown uncertainties and risks

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

36 / 65 earnings

Positive

+19.2%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-13.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%+4.6%+1.2%
Q4 2025-4.9%-13.2%-22.8%
Q3 2025-8.7%-10.0%-1.3%
Q1 2025+3.3%+3.5%+5.6%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.5%-17.9%
Q3 2024+6.9%+10.4%+18.6%
Q2 2024+1.9%+0.1%-1.9%
Q1 2024+19.2%+20.8%+23.3%
Q4 2023+2.0%-0.2%+14.2%
Q3 2023+11.7%+15.0%+23.1%
Q2 2023-13.6%-15.0%-15.9%
Q1 2023+1.3%+5.9%+2.0%
Q4 2022-10.7%-10.8%-15.7%
Q3 2022-7.2%-6.0%+13.7%
Q2 2022-8.2%-2.5%-14.4%
Q1 2022+17.9%+12.2%+8.8%
Q4 2021-9.0%+0.6%-5.2%
Q3 2021+11.6%+9.1%+17.0%
Q2 2021+2.5%+5.4%+17.4%
Q1 2021+4.0%+8.4%-3.2%
Q4 2020+4.2%+8.7%+23.9%
Q3 2020+5.1%+0.7%+21.3%
Q2 2020-1.8%-0.0%+1.4%
Q1 2020+3.6%+11.7%+30.4%
Q4 2019+6.0%+7.2%-43.2%
Q3 2019-0.6%-2.7%-2.4%
Q2 2019-9.0%-8.2%-6.0%
Q1 2019-3.4%-2.2%-6.0%
Q4 2018+9.7%+10.4%+1.5%
Q3 2018+6.5%+2.3%-1.1%
Q2 2018+3.1%+3.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018-2.7%-2.0%+5.8%
Q4 2017+5.7%+2.8%+2.4%
Q3 2017-2.0%-2.9%-3.3%
Q2 2017-3.9%-2.5%+1.5%
Q1 2017-4.7%-3.9%-10.2%
Q4 2016+14.1%+15.8%+18.6%
Q3 2016+4.6%+1.1%+10.5%
Q2 2016+1.2%-0.6%-0.1%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015+2.6%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015+4.3%
Q4 2014+3.8%
Q3 2014+0.1%
Q2 2014-2.4%
Q1 2014-3.8%
Q4 2013+4.9%
Q3 2013-4.5%
Q2 2013+1.4%
Q1 2013+5.1%
Q4 2012+3.5%
Q3 2012-0.4%
Q2 2012-5.8%
Q1 2012+6.5%
Q4 2009-2.4%
Q4 2011-2.4%
Q3 2011+3.0%
Q3 2010+3.0%
Q2 2010-3.5%
Q2 2011-3.5%
Q1 2010-2.4%
Q1 2011-2.4%
Q4 2010-2.4%

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