NYSE$GHM

Graham Corp · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Graham Corporation's Q4 results were impacted by COVID-19, with delayed revenue and reduced production, but the company maintained a strong balance sheet and backlog.

Graham Corporation reported Q4 revenue of $23.1 million, impacted by approximately $7 million in delayed revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic. EPS was $0.06. The company had a strong backlog of $112 million, with 52% from the defense industry, and a cash balance of $73 million.

  • Q4 revenue was $23.1 million, reflecting a $7 million delay due to COVID-19.
  • Q4 EPS was $0.06.
  • Backlog at the end of the year was $112 million, with defense industry accounting for 52%.
  • Cash balance was strong at $73 million as of March 31, 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$23.1M

Previous: $23.6M-2.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.06

Previous: $0.08-25.0%
Capital Expenditures

$1.03M

Previous: $667K+54.1%
Free Cash Flow

$4.33M

Previous: -$1.29M+437.0%
Net Income

$600K

Previous: -$4.55M+113.2%
Operating Income

$300K

No prior period
Gross Profit

$4.44M

Previous: $4.8M-7.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$33M

Previous: $15M+119.4%
Total Assets

$148M

Previous: $156M-5.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$244K

Previous: $272K-10.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Graham · Revenue · Quarterly

$23.1M

Q4 2020-2.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Due to the economic impact of COVID-19, the company is not providing guidance for fiscal 2021 at this time but expects revenue, earnings and cash generation to be challenged in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. $3.2 million of orders were canceled in the fourth quarter and three orders were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, causing revenue of $4.1 million to be delayed beyond fiscal 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Plan to return to more normal production levels in June and begin working through our backlog, which will help the results from operations for the remaining quarters of fiscal 2021.
  • Expect to convert 70-75% of our $112.4 million March 31, 2020 backlog during the year.
  • Nearing a steady state of annual revenue from the defense industry with the products we provide for the U.S. Navy.
  • Expect defense industry revenue to reach a level of $20 million to $25 million per year for several years as we replace backlog with new projects over time.
  • Intend to be opportunistic in regards to acquisition opportunities that may occur due to market consolidation and contraction.

Headwinds

  • Manufacturing production impeded in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, expect that revenue, earnings and cash generation will likewise be challenged.
  • Had approximately $3.2 million of orders canceled in the fourth quarter.
  • Three orders delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, causing revenue of $4.1 million to be delayed beyond fiscal 2021.
  • Customer requests for the delays were both in the fourth quarter as well as thus far in the first quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Cautious on our outlook until we have more clarity on the potential for future demand.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

35 / 65 earnings

Positive

+22.9%

Q2 2025

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2026-10.3%-2.7%
Q3 2026+12.9%+19.7%+10.7%
Q2 2026+0.5%-2.0%-6.8%
Q1 2026-18.3%-15.9%-14.4%
Q4 2025+6.3%+10.1%+25.7%
Q3 2025-17.4%-20.4%-31.9%
Q2 2025+22.9%+24.6%+29.6%
Q4 2024+12.6%+17.7%+7.7%
Q3 2024+11.7%+15.9%+20.8%
Q2 2024-4.4%+1.4%+6.2%
Q1 2024+15.7%+20.3%+17.3%
Q1 2025+15.7%+20.3%+17.3%
Q4 2023+11.1%+11.1%+11.3%
Q3 2023+11.6%+16.4%+32.7%
Q2 2023+18.1%+16.6%+13.5%
Q1 2023+12.3%+17.7%+44.7%
Q4 2022+16.4%+20.6%-9.0%
Q3 2022-25.5%-23.0%-34.1%
Q2 2022-3.2%-1.5%-1.8%
Q1 2022-4.8%-9.7%-9.3%
Q4 2021+2.3%-0.1%-6.7%
Q3 2021-5.3%-2.7%-1.5%
Q2 2021-0.3%+1.5%+21.6%
Q1 2021+6.1%+5.8%+8.6%
Q4 2020-10.1%-10.1%-13.7%
Q3 2020-7.8%-10.8%-17.2%
Q2 2020+10.4%-2.0%-7.0%
Q1 2020+1.2%+1.8%-11.7%
Q4 2019+0.0%+1.4%-0.9%
Q3 2019-1.5%-1.1%-0.8%
Q2 2019+1.0%+1.2%-10.4%
Q1 2019+3.5%+10.0%+9.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%-1.3%-1.5%
Q3 2018+5.9%+0.5%-6.9%
Q2 2018-10.4%-11.1%-10.0%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%-0.9%
Q4 2017-0.7%-3.5%-6.1%
Q3 2017+3.4%-0.3%+3.5%
Q2 2017-0.1%-3.6%+24.4%
Q1 2017-4.3%-4.2%+3.0%
Q4 2016-4.8%-1.1%+1.2%
Q3 2016+0.2%
Q2 2016-3.4%
Q1 2016+8.8%
Q4 2015-5.9%
Q3 2015-8.9%
Q2 2015+0.1%
Q1 2015-3.4%
Q4 2014+6.5%
Q3 2014-4.6%
Q2 2014-2.8%
Q1 2014+5.2%
Q4 2013+13.6%
Q3 2013+1.8%
Q2 2013+0.9%
Q1 2013+1.2%
Q4 2010-0.6%
Q4 2012-6.5%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q2 2012+6.3%
Q4 2011-17.6%
Q2 2011-17.6%
Q1 2011-17.6%
Q1 2012-17.6%

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