NYSE$GEF

Greif Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Greif's Q1 2023 results were impacted by destocking, lower customer demand and inflationary pressures, but the team demonstrated resilience and progressed on the Build to Last strategy.

Greif reported a net income of $89.9 million, or $1.54 per diluted Class A share, and adjusted EBITDA of $164.5 million. The company completed the acquisition of Lee Container Corporation and announced an agreement to increase its ownership interest in Centurion Container LLC.

  • Net income increased compared to the first quarter of 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to the first quarter of 2022.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $10.5 million to $32.9 million.
  • Completed acquisition of Lee Container Corporation and progressing ahead of schedule on planned integration.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.27B

Previous: $1.56B-18.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.06

Previous: $1.28-17.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$51.6M

Previous: -$49.3M-4.7%
Free Cash Flow

$38.3M

Previous: -$39M+198.2%
Net Income

$89.9M

Previous: $10.3M+772.8%
Operating Income

$156M

Previous: $72M+117.2%
Gross Profit

$252M

Previous: $290M-13.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$161M

Previous: $120M+34.5%
Total Assets

$5.69B

Previous: $5.77B-1.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Greif · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.27B

Q1 2023-18.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Given the significant deterioration of product demand in the past two quarters and the degree of uncertainty in the forward looking macro-economic environment, the company is providing only a low-end guidance estimate for fiscal year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Low-end guidance estimate is based on the continuation of demand trends reflected in the recent two quarters, modified only by normal lifts related to agricultural, construction, and other seasonal end markets.
  • Potential contribution from the recently announced potential Centurion transaction.
  • Potential contribution from other near-term actionable opportunities in our M&A pipeline.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $740 million.
  • Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be $370 million.

Headwinds

  • Significant deterioration of product demand in the past two quarters.
  • Degree of uncertainty in the forward looking macro-economic environment.
  • Unable to determine the trajectory of product demand for the remainder of our fiscal year.
  • Impact of potential negative price trends in our paper business that could result from extended negative demand trends.
  • Low-end guidance estimate does not factor in any contribution from the recently announced potential Centurion transaction or other near-term actionable opportunities in our M&A pipeline.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+18.4%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+2.4%+4.6%-3.1%
Q1 2026-1.0%+5.0%-2.2%
Q4 2025+0.8%+4.6%+14.2%
Q2 2025+15.0%+16.6%+26.6%
Q1 2025-8.4%-9.5%-9.1%
Q4 2024-1.9%-4.3%-14.3%
Q3 2024-2.0%-1.1%-1.4%
Q2 2024-3.0%-4.2%-10.6%
Q1 2024+4.1%+2.1%+11.5%
Q4 2023-4.1%-9.4%-8.6%
Q3 2023-1.6%-1.5%-9.4%
Q2 2023+12.4%+15.6%+9.3%
Q1 2023-7.0%-8.3%-10.8%
Q4 2022-3.3%-2.6%-4.3%
Q3 2022-4.3%-1.8%-13.0%
Q2 2022+3.7%-2.9%-2.3%
Q1 2022+8.1%+4.9%+17.0%
Q4 2021+0.3%-5.4%-4.5%
Q3 2021+4.1%+8.0%+4.2%
Q2 2021+2.5%+2.2%-1.2%
Q1 2021+3.8%+9.8%+25.8%
Q4 2020-5.7%-8.6%+0.1%
Q3 2020-7.8%-5.2%-7.5%
Q2 2020+12.1%+22.6%+2.8%
Q1 2020-7.8%-5.0%-19.6%
Q4 2019+0.4%+3.7%+1.6%
Q3 2019+15.8%+11.3%+20.3%
Q2 2019-12.2%-10.3%-12.6%
Q1 2019-5.4%-2.7%-2.9%
Q4 2018-9.8%-10.6%-24.4%
Q3 2018+3.7%+0.3%-2.5%
Q2 2018-6.2%-4.3%-13.0%
Q1 2018-14.6%-13.7%-10.6%
Q4 2017+18.4%+14.7%+12.6%
Q3 2017+6.8%+3.5%+3.4%
Q2 2017-6.9%-8.0%-3.9%
Q1 2017-6.7%-2.9%-3.4%
Q4 2016+3.3%+4.6%-2.7%
Q3 2016+5.4%+7.2%+15.3%
Q2 2016+8.0%+5.5%+1.8%
Q1 2016-0.2%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2015+15.0%
Q2 2015+1.2%
Q1 2015-14.1%
Q4 2014-4.4%
Q3 2014-0.7%
Q2 2014-1.5%
Q1 2014-0.2%
Q4 2013-6.0%
Q3 2013-3.8%
Q2 2013+3.5%
Q1 2013+0.6%
Q4 2012-1.3%
Q3 2012+1.6%
Q2 2012-3.7%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q4 2011-0.9%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q1 2011+0.0%
Q4 2010+1.4%
Q3 2010-0.1%
Q2 2010+3.4%
Q1 2009+0.8%

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