NYSE$COP

ConocoPhillips Co · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ConocoPhillips reported a net loss and adjusted loss in Q4 2020, impacted by lower realized prices and reduced volumes, but remained committed to free cash flow generation and strategic portfolio enhancements.

ConocoPhillips reported a net loss of $0.8 billion, or ($0.72) per share, in Q4 2020, compared to earnings of $0.7 billion, or $0.65 per share, in Q4 2019. Adjusted loss was $0.2 billion, or ($0.19) per share, versus adjusted earnings of $0.8 billion, or $0.76 per share, in the prior year. The results were affected by lower realized prices and reduced production volumes, but the company emphasized its commitment to free cash flow and value creation.

  • Reported a fourth-quarter 2020 loss of $0.8 billion, or ($0.72) per share.
  • Adjusted fourth-quarter 2020 earnings were a loss of $0.2 billion, or ($0.19) per share.
  • Production excluding Libya for the fourth quarter of 2020 was 1,144 MBOED.
  • The company’s total average realized price was $33.21 per BOE, 29 percent lower than the $47.01 per BOE realized in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.05B

Previous: $8.14B-25.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.19

Previous: $0.76-125.0%
Free Cash Flow

$604M

Previous: $1.07B-43.8%
Net Income

-$800M

Previous: $720M-211.1%
Gross Profit

$341M

Previous: $2.14B-84.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.3B

Previous: $5.4B-38.9%
Total Assets

$63B

Previous: $71B-11.3%

Revenue & EPS history

ConocoPhillips · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.05B

Q4 2020-25.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

ConocoPhillips expects to provide additional guidance in March but is providing an outlook for expected combined company operating plan capital and annual production volumes at this time. The company has set a 2021 operating plan capital budget of $5.5 billion. This includes $5.1 billion to sustain current production and $0.4 billion for investment in major projects, primarily in Alaska, in addition to ongoing exploration appraisal activity. The operating plan capital budget of $5.5 billion is expected to maintain flat production as compared to 2020 pro forma production of approximately 1.5 million BOED.

Tailwinds

  • Industry fundamentals have strengthened off the 2020 lows.
  • Setting a sustaining capital program for 2021.
  • Demonstrates commitment to free cash flow generation.
  • Creates flexibility to return additional capital to shareholders at higher prices.
  • Comprehensive integration and optimization efforts across every part of our business.

Headwinds

  • The 2020 results discussed herein reflect the performance of ConocoPhillips prior to the acquisition of Concho, which closed in January 2021.
  • Fourth-quarter 2020 earnings were a loss of $0.8 billion, or ($0.72) per share.
  • Excluding special items, fourth-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings were a loss of $0.2 billion, or ($0.19) per share
  • Production excluding Libya for the fourth quarter of 2020 was 1,144 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), a decrease of 145 MBOED from the same period a year ago.
  • Final information related to the company’s 2020 oil and gas reserves, as well as costs incurred, will be provided in ConocoPhillips’ Annual Report on Form 10-K, to be filed with the SEC in February.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.7%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

33 / 73 earnings

Positive

+7.6%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-14.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-3.8%-11.1%
Q4 2025-2.4%-0.1%+8.8%
Q3 2025-2.4%+3.4%+6.8%
Q2 2025-0.5%+1.6%-0.2%
Q1 2025+1.3%+7.4%-0.6%
Q4 2024-0.3%+1.5%-9.6%
Q3 2024+4.7%+6.0%+5.2%
Q2 2024-4.9%-4.9%+2.3%
Q1 2024-1.7%-0.6%-6.3%
Q4 2023-1.0%-2.3%+0.6%
Q3 2023+2.6%-1.2%-1.2%
Q2 2023-1.6%+0.0%+5.7%
Q1 2023+4.5%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2022-8.1%-4.8%-7.7%
Q3 2022+4.6%+6.3%-3.4%
Q2 2022+1.7%+4.6%+20.7%
Q1 2022+3.7%-5.6%+13.7%
Q4 2021-0.4%-1.0%+8.7%
Q3 2021-2.5%+1.2%-4.5%
Q2 2021-0.8%+2.0%+2.2%
Q1 2021+5.1%+8.3%+12.8%
Q4 2020+6.1%+9.1%+36.6%
Q3 2020-0.6%+1.8%+48.6%
Q2 2020-6.4%-5.8%-3.9%
Q1 2020-7.3%-3.1%-0.1%
Q4 2019-0.7%-2.0%-19.4%
Q3 2019-1.1%+2.6%+8.4%
Q2 2019+1.5%-3.0%-10.1%
Q1 2019+0.0%-1.0%-5.9%
Q4 2018+4.6%+5.4%+4.9%
Q3 2018+4.2%+5.8%-2.9%
Q2 2018-0.1%+0.9%+1.5%
Q1 2018-0.2%+1.0%+0.6%
Q4 2017-1.9%-4.9%-8.1%
Q3 2017+2.5%+2.4%+1.0%
Q2 2017+3.6%+2.4%-0.3%
Q1 2017-0.8%-1.5%-5.5%
Q4 2016+4.0%+1.9%-1.4%
Q3 2016+7.6%+4.2%+9.4%
Q2 2016+1.9%-0.7%+5.6%
Q1 2016-0.7%
Q4 2015-14.8%
Q3 2015+0.0%
Q2 2015-4.8%
Q1 2015-0.9%
Q4 2014+0.6%
Q3 2014+2.0%
Q2 2014-4.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-1.3%
Q3 2013-0.2%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013+1.1%
Q4 2012-5.9%
Q3 2012+2.4%
Q2 2012-0.4%
Q1 2012+1.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008+1.1%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q4 2009-0.9%
Q2 2010-0.9%
Q1 2009-4.9%
Q1 2010+1.5%
Q4 2007-0.7%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q2 2009-0.9%
Q2 2008-0.9%

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