NYSE$BSM

Black Stone Minerals LP · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Black Stone Minerals reported a net income of $147.6 million and total production of 41.1 MBoe/d for Q4 2023, while also providing guidance for 2024.

Black Stone Minerals announced its Q4 and full year 2023 results, reporting a net income of $147.6 million for the quarter. The company's mineral and royalty production averaged 38.9 MBoe/d, and total production was 41.1 MBoe/d. Black Stone also provided guidance for 2024, anticipating an increase in royalty production.

  • Mineral and royalty production for Q4 2023 equaled 38.9 MBoe/d, a decrease of 3% over the prior quarter; total production, including working interest volumes, was 41.1 MBoe/d for the quarter.
  • Net income for the quarter was $147.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA totaled $125.5 million.
  • Distributable cash flow was $119.1 million for the fourth quarter, representing the seventh consecutive quarter above $100 million.
  • Black Stone announced a distribution of $0.475 per unit with respect to Q4 2023, with a distribution coverage for all units of 1.19x.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$81.9M

Previous: $230M-64.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.65

Previous: $0.82-20.7%
Net Income

$148M

No prior period
Operating Income

$148M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$51.2M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Black Stone Minerals · Revenue · Quarterly

$81.9M

Q4 2023-64.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 14 quarters(43%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Black Stone Minerals · $110M total across 4 segments · Q3 2023

  • Oil & condensate sales
    $85.7M+6.8%
  • Natural gas & NGL sales
    $48.8M-64.6%
  • Lease bonus & other income
    $2.18M-31.0%
  • Derivative gains
    -$26.9M-469.7%

Forward guidance

Black Stone Minerals expects royalty production to increase by approximately 4% in 2024 relative to full year 2023 levels, primarily due to Aethon turning on-line the 24 wells in various stages of development in the Shelby Trough and continued development in the Austin Chalk. This is partially offset by an expected moderation of activity in Louisiana Haynesville due to lower commodity prices. Working interest production is expected to decline in 2024 as a result of Black Stone's decision in 2017 to farm out participation in its working interest opportunities. The Partnership expects general and administrative expenses to be slightly higher in 2024 as a result of inflationary costs and selective hires made to support Black Stone’s ability to evaluate, market and manage its undeveloped acreage positions to potential operators.

Tailwinds

  • Royalty production expected to increase by approximately 4% in 2024.
  • Aethon turning online 24 wells in Shelby Trough.
  • Continued development in the Austin Chalk.
  • Strategic, targeted mineral and royalty acquisitions to complement existing positions.
  • Focus on attracting capital and securing drilling commitments on minerals already owned.

Headwinds

  • Expected moderation of activity in Louisiana Haynesville due to lower commodity prices.
  • Working interest production expected to decline in 2024 due to farm out decisions.
  • General and administrative expenses expected to be slightly higher in 2024 due to inflationary costs and selective hires.
  • Headwinds expected in 2024 as natural gas prices remain depressed.
  • Aethon exercising time-out provisions under joint exploration agreements in Angelina and San Augustine counties in East Texas, temporarily suspending drilling obligations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

25 / 45 earnings

Positive

+7.2%

Q2 2018

Best reaction

-11.8%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.3%-6.1%-2.0%
Q4 2025+0.7%+1.6%+3.1%
Q3 2025+2.2%+1.6%+10.8%
Q2 2025+1.1%-3.2%-3.6%
Q1 2025-1.7%-3.8%-4.9%
Q4 2024+1.1%+0.1%+2.3%
Q3 2024+1.2%+0.3%+0.9%
Q2 2024+2.2%+0.4%+0.7%
Q1 2024-0.5%-4.1%-4.0%
Q4 2023+0.1%+1.2%+3.4%
Q3 2023+2.1%+3.6%-1.0%
Q2 2023-2.8%-0.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-6.5%-5.7%-5.3%
Q4 2022+0.5%-0.4%-5.8%
Q3 2022+3.4%+5.7%+0.4%
Q2 2022-0.3%-1.7%+2.2%
Q1 2022-0.4%-3.0%+3.7%
Q4 2021+0.5%+4.8%+11.7%
Q3 2021-0.9%-2.8%-14.1%
Q2 2021+0.2%-0.2%-3.4%
Q1 2021+3.4%+3.6%-0.5%
Q4 2020-1.4%-5.5%-7.2%
Q3 2020-0.8%+8.8%+19.3%
Q2 2020+3.4%+4.6%-3.7%
Q1 2020+7.0%+17.6%+19.7%
Q4 2019-11.8%-12.5%-54.9%
Q3 2019+0.4%+1.8%-8.9%
Q2 2019-2.3%-3.2%-5.2%
Q1 2019+3.5%-2.0%-9.9%
Q4 2018-2.1%-2.8%-3.7%
Q3 2018+4.9%+0.7%-2.3%
Q2 2018+7.2%+11.1%+7.7%
Q1 2018+2.6%+5.0%+2.0%
Q4 2017-3.5%-4.1%-8.9%
Q3 2017-2.7%-1.4%-2.8%
Q2 2017+0.5%+4.0%+6.6%
Q1 2017+6.5%+6.5%+0.2%
Q4 2016-0.5%-1.0%-7.6%
Q3 2016+4.9%+3.1%+8.9%
Q2 2016-1.9%-4.2%+6.2%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015+4.2%
Q3 2015-0.7%
Q2 2015+1.3%
Q1 2015-0.7%
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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