NYSE$BCO

Brinks Co · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Brink's second quarter results reported, showing stronger than expected performance due to cost reductions and the resilience of the retail customer base.

Brink's reported a decrease in revenue by 10% compared to the previous year, but the results were stronger than expected due to cost reductions and a resilient retail customer base. The company is cautiously optimistic about sequential profit growth in the second half of 2020 and accelerated revenue growth in 2021.

  • GAAP EPS was $.27, compared to $.25 in the prior year; non-GAAP EPS was $.67, compared to $.86 in the prior year.
  • Revenue decline improved from 29% in April to 14% in June, excluding the G4S acquisition.
  • Reported revenue decreased by 10% compared to 2019, with a negative currency translation impact of $86 million.
  • The G4S acquired businesses are performing well, and synergies are on track.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$826M

Previous: $914M-9.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.67

Previous: $0.84-20.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$53.9M

Previous: -$73.1M+26.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$41M

Previous: -$60.6M+32.3%
Net Income

$12.9M

Previous: $12.5M+3.2%
Operating Income

-$1M

Previous: $52.6M-101.9%
Gross Profit

$142M

Previous: $206M-30.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$531M

Previous: $305M+74.3%
Total Assets

$4.77B

Previous: $3.73B+27.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.4M

Previous: $16.7M-67.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Brinks · Revenue · Quarterly

$826M

Q2 2020-9.6%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Brink's provided a range of potential revenue and adjusted EBITDA levels for 2020 and 2021 based on recent trends and customer data. The 2020 model includes an adjusted EBITDA range between $465 million and $515 million. The 2021 model includes an adjusted EBITDA range between $615 million and $805 million.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential profit growth in the second half of 2020
  • Accelerated revenue growth and margin improvement in 2021
  • Full-year benefit of cost realignment in 2021
  • Full-year benefit of G4S acquisition in 2021
  • Aggressive cost reductions focused on variable costs have already been achieved.

Headwinds

  • Predicting the future impact of the pandemic is very difficult
  • Concerns about a resurgence of the virus in the U.S and other markets
  • Uncertainty about potential revenue and adjusted EBITDA levels
  • Potential impact of highly inflationary accounting on Argentina operations
  • Potential Non-GAAP adjusting items such as future restructuring actions

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.9%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-14.4%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.5%+0.7%-3.3%
Q4 2025-14.4%-8.8%-25.7%
Q3 2025+7.6%+7.5%+10.2%
Q1 2025-5.3%-6.9%-10.4%
Q4 2024+1.9%-6.3%-7.7%
Q3 2024-3.3%-3.7%-9.0%
Q2 2024-5.6%-7.4%+4.2%
Q1 2024+6.2%+6.9%+11.8%
Q4 2023+3.7%+4.5%+16.3%
Q3 2023+3.5%+4.9%+18.7%
Q2 2023-1.5%-0.2%+3.8%
Q1 2023+4.2%+4.1%+13.8%
Q4 2022+6.7%+7.2%+3.8%
Q3 2022-3.2%-0.9%+0.9%
Q2 2022+4.4%+2.7%-0.5%
Q1 2022+0.2%+0.7%+8.3%
Q4 2021+3.3%+2.2%-2.2%
Q3 2021+16.2%+15.6%+6.8%
Q2 2021-3.8%-4.6%-1.4%
Q1 2021+4.3%+3.7%-2.0%
Q4 2020+5.8%+1.1%+3.9%
Q3 2020-2.5%+5.5%+57.1%
Q2 2020+20.9%+13.9%+31.1%
Q1 2020-11.6%-11.8%+0.6%
Q4 2019-6.5%-4.6%-10.5%
Q3 2019-0.8%+2.5%+4.2%
Q2 2019+4.7%+4.6%-18.4%
Q1 2019-3.3%-1.3%-2.5%
Q4 2018+0.9%+3.7%-2.3%
Q3 2018+8.2%+5.5%+4.1%
Q2 2018+2.4%+0.5%-1.1%
Q1 2018+0.5%-1.1%-7.2%
Q4 2017-10.1%-9.3%-10.9%
Q3 2017-8.9%-9.9%-5.1%
Q2 2017+12.9%+10.5%+6.5%
Q1 2017+5.5%+3.9%+7.2%
Q4 2016+16.1%+22.5%+21.2%
Q3 2016+8.7%+5.8%+20.6%
Q2 2016+2.6%+3.6%+15.8%
Q1 2016-13.1%
Q4 2015-0.1%
Q3 2015-2.8%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015+15.6%
Q4 2014+7.4%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014+2.7%
Q1 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013-1.3%
Q3 2013+9.2%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+6.1%
Q4 2012-8.6%
Q3 2012-7.2%
Q2 2012+1.8%
Q1 2012+18.1%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2011-5.3%
Q2 2011+1.9%
Q1 2010-5.9%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2008-1.1%
Q3 2010+2.8%
Q3 2009+2.8%
Q2 2010-1.5%
Q2 2009-1.5%
Q4 2009-1.5%

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