NYSE$AVY

Avery Dennison Corp · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Avery Dennison's earnings exceeded expectations in the first quarter, but anticipated a decline in organic growth and earnings for the year due to the coronavirus impact.

Avery Dennison announced its Q1 2020 results, revealing that while earnings exceeded expectations, the company anticipates a decline in organic growth and earnings for the year. The Label and Packaging Materials business experienced higher demand, while the RBIS business saw a significant decline. The company is actively managing the dynamic environment and expects a disproportionate impact on its second quarter results.

  • Earnings exceeded expectations in Q1, but a decline in organic growth is anticipated for the year.
  • The Label and Packaging Materials business saw higher demand due to the pandemic, while RBIS experienced a significant decline.
  • The company is actively managing the dynamic environment and updating scenario plans.
  • Free cash flow is targeted to be comparable to last year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.72B

Previous: $1.74B-1.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.66

Previous: $1.48+12.2%
Organic Sales Change

0.3%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

11.8%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$33.2M

Previous: -$41.8M+20.6%
Free Cash Flow

$101M

Previous: -$189M+153.5%
Net Income

$134M

Previous: -$147M+191.4%
Operating Income

$350M

Previous: $310M+13.2%
Gross Profit

$485M

Previous: $465M+4.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$742M

Previous: $226M+228.8%
Total Assets

$6.26B

Previous: $5.35B+16.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.3M

Previous: $7.6M-17.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Avery Dennison · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.72B

Q1 2020-1%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Due to the uncertain impact of the pandemic, Avery Dennison has suspended its annual EPS guidance. The company expects sales and earnings to decline in 2020, with a disproportionate impact on Q2 results. They are targeting free cash flow of at least $500 million in 2020 and 2021.

Tailwinds

  • LPM business is expected to fare relatively better than during 2008-2009.
  • Cost control and cash management actions are being implemented to offset the decline in demand.
  • Targeting to deliver free cash flow of at least $500 million in 2020 and 2021.
  • Businesses have historically rebounded quickly in the year following a recession.
  • Company is prepared for a range of possible macro scenarios and how they might impact each business.

Headwinds

  • Annual EPS guidance has been suspended due to the uncertain impact of the pandemic.
  • Sales and earnings are expected to decline in 2020 due to lower demand.
  • A disproportionate impact is expected on the second quarter results.
  • Organic sales decline of 15% to 20% is expected in Q2 vs. prior year.
  • RBIS and Graphics Solutions are expected to fare worse than during 2008-2009.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

37 / 67 earnings

Positive

+10.1%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-8.3%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.6%-1.2%-2.6%
Q4 2025+2.8%+1.4%-3.8%
Q3 2025+9.5%+10.4%+4.2%
Q2 2025+1.7%+1.7%-1.9%
Q1 2025-2.6%-2.6%+1.6%
Q4 2024-5.4%-5.3%-2.6%
Q3 2024-3.5%-2.5%-4.6%
Q2 2024-4.2%-4.7%-3.6%
Q1 2024+2.8%+3.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-0.9%-2.6%+7.7%
Q3 2023-1.3%-0.3%+9.6%
Q2 2023+1.7%+3.9%+2.2%
Q1 2023-0.8%+2.3%-4.6%
Q4 2022-5.5%-4.2%-4.3%
Q3 2022-4.8%-4.2%+8.7%
Q2 2022+10.1%+10.9%+9.9%
Q1 2022+7.5%+7.1%+0.1%
Q4 2021-6.4%-12.1%-18.8%
Q3 2021+1.6%+3.5%+1.0%
Q2 2021+2.3%+2.5%+10.3%
Q1 2021+5.1%+4.6%+8.0%
Q3 2020+4.9%+3.7%+9.8%
Q2 2020-2.3%-5.9%-3.9%
Q1 2020-3.7%-6.8%-3.5%
Q4 2019+5.3%+3.7%-11.4%
Q3 2019+6.6%+7.7%+9.1%
Q2 2019+3.8%+4.4%+2.4%
Q1 2019-6.5%-5.5%-12.7%
Q4 2018+5.8%+5.0%+11.1%
Q3 2018-8.3%-9.1%-4.7%
Q2 2018+9.1%+9.2%+2.3%
Q1 2018+0.8%-0.6%+2.9%
Q4 2017+2.6%-3.0%-1.8%
Q3 2017+6.0%+6.5%+12.9%
Q2 2017-1.7%-2.1%-1.1%
Q1 2017+1.4%+1.4%+2.3%
Q4 2016+9.6%+8.9%+12.0%
Q3 2016-7.1%-7.9%-5.4%
Q2 2016+8.7%+7.8%+7.8%
Q1 2016+1.0%
Q4 2015+7.5%
Q3 2015+1.1%
Q2 2015+0.8%
Q1 2015+7.2%
Q4 2014-0.8%
Q3 2014+2.4%
Q2 2014-2.7%
Q1 2014-5.3%
Q4 2013-3.8%
Q3 2013+8.6%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013+0.6%
Q4 2012+6.6%
Q3 2012+9.1%
Q2 2012+5.9%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q4 2011+0.2%
Q3 2011-3.5%
Q2 2011-1.1%
Q4 2008+1.1%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q3 2010+0.2%
Q3 2009+0.2%
Q2 2010-4.5%
Q4 2010-4.5%
Q2 2009-4.5%
Q1 2010-1.9%

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