NYSE$ATI

ATI Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ATI reported Q3 2023 results driven by increasing Aerospace & Defense content, resulting in year-over-year earnings growth.

ATI Inc. reported third quarter 2023 sales of $1.03 billion and net income attributable to ATI of $75.7 million, or $0.52 per share. Aerospace and defense represented 61% of Q3 2023 sales, up from 51% in Q3 2022. Adjusted EPS was $0.55 and adjusted EBITDA was $148.1 million, or 14.4% of sales.

  • Aerospace and defense reached 61% of revenue, up 10 percentage points over last year.
  • Commercial airframe product sales in HPMC segment more than doubled compared to the prior year.
  • HPMC segment EBITDA was $115.7 million, or 21.5% of sales, driven by increased volumes on higher-margin next-generation commercial aerospace platforms.
  • Company repurchased $45 million of common stock at an average price of $43.93, retiring approximately 1.0 million shares.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.03B

Previous: $1.03B-0.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.55

Previous: $0.53+3.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$44M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$75.7M

Previous: $61.1M+23.9%
Net Income

$75.7M

Previous: $61.1M+23.9%
Operating Income

$125M

Previous: $113M+10.6%
Gross Profit

$195M

Previous: $184M+5.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$433M

Previous: $329M+31.5%
Total Assets

$4.73B

Previous: $4.29B+10.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.4M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

ATI · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.03B

Q3 2023-0.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ATI · $540M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • HPMC
    $540M+17.9%

Forward guidance

ATI expects sequential and year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter, led by the HPMC segment. HPMC EBITDA margins are expected to continue to improve year-over-year. AA&S segment expects stable performance. Company expects to generate significant cash from operations due to improvements in managed working capital.

Tailwinds

  • Expect sequential and year-over-year ATI earnings growth in the fourth quarter, led by our HPMC segment.
  • HPMC EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to improve year-over-year, in line with our prior guidance.
  • Backlogs remain strong across aerospace and defense.
  • Continued process optimization will favorably impact future growth and performance.
  • In the AA&S segment, the Company assumes stable performance in the fourth quarter 2023, due to sustained growth in the aerospace and defense related markets.

Headwinds

  • We continue to optimize operations and resolve bottlenecks that come with growing demand.
  • Certain recessionary forces impacting AA&S segment.
  • Cash used in operating activities includes voluntary pension contributions of $222 million in the third quarter.
  • Reduced accounts receivable and inventory levels were partially offset by lower accounts payable in the third quarter.
  • Managed working capital as a percent of sales was 39.9%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+5.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+9.2%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

43 / 72 earnings

Positive

+28.8%

Q4 2016

Best reaction

-19.8%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.7%+6.2%+19.8%
Q4 2025+4.3%+9.7%+26.6%
Q3 2025+7.1%+7.9%+9.4%
Q1 2025+14.5%+26.5%+46.5%
Q4 2024+9.9%+8.3%-1.2%
Q3 2024-14.3%-15.5%-4.9%
Q2 2024-2.6%+2.2%-1.7%
Q1 2024+13.4%+12.1%+17.9%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.5%+20.5%
Q3 2023+11.7%+13.9%+15.3%
Q2 2023-5.9%-5.1%-1.7%
Q1 2023-3.1%-0.7%+2.1%
Q4 2022+9.1%+8.4%+16.4%
Q3 2022-12.1%-6.5%+0.1%
Q2 2022+14.5%+17.3%+17.3%
Q1 2022-4.7%-8.3%-2.1%
Q4 2021+19.4%+22.0%+38.5%
Q3 2021+7.8%+8.6%+1.5%
Q2 2021-6.3%-1.3%-8.7%
Q1 2021-3.2%-2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2020-6.5%+0.1%+8.0%
Q3 2020+11.4%+21.2%+72.8%
Q2 2020+3.6%+2.9%-1.0%
Q1 2020+3.9%+15.1%+54.0%
Q4 2019+13.5%+14.1%-4.8%
Q3 2019+16.0%+18.9%+20.2%
Q2 2019-6.7%-9.0%-26.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-2.3%-14.5%
Q4 2018+3.8%+4.6%+12.6%
Q3 2018-6.7%-5.8%-2.8%
Q2 2018+6.6%+5.1%-4.0%
Q1 2018+4.5%+4.2%+8.6%
Q4 2017+2.0%+1.1%-5.5%
Q3 2017+2.8%+3.8%-6.1%
Q2 2017+9.3%+10.4%+21.2%
Q1 2017+4.7%+1.4%-11.2%
Q4 2016+28.8%+28.5%+13.5%
Q3 2016-19.8%-23.5%+1.1%
Q2 2016+18.7%+17.7%+11.1%
Q1 2016-0.5%
Q4 2015+9.1%
Q3 2015-19.8%
Q2 2015-18.0%
Q1 2015+13.2%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014-2.5%
Q2 2014-7.8%
Q1 2014-0.1%
Q4 2013-3.4%
Q3 2013+2.4%
Q2 2013-1.1%
Q1 2013-1.3%
Q4 2012-1.2%
Q3 2012-13.5%
Q2 2012+0.7%
Q1 2012+7.6%
Q4 2011-0.9%
Q3 2011+3.8%
Q2 2011-9.3%
Q1 2011-0.6%
Q4 2010-3.2%
Q3 2010+5.2%
Q2 2010+1.2%
Q1 2009+10.3%
Q1 2010+0.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%
Q3 2009+3.7%
Q3 2008+3.7%
Q4 2008+12.4%
Q2 2009+12.4%
Q2 2008+12.4%
Q4 2007+12.4%

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