NYSE$ALV

Autoliv Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Autoliv's profitability and cash flow improved in Q4 2019.

Autoliv reported Q4 2019 net sales of $2,191 million with 0.5% organic sales growth. The operating margin was 10.5% and adjusted operating margin was 11.1%. EPS increased by 268% to $1.78 and adjusted EPS increased by 30% to $1.84.

  • Organic growth outperformed global light vehicle production by 5.9pp, with all regions outperforming LVP. Order intake share remained high.
  • Profitability improved despite global LVP decline, driven by ramp-up of new programs, improved launch efficiency and the structural efficiency program. Adjusted operating margin and cash flow improved.
  • The structural efficiency program is on track, and we are planning and implementing a multitude of strategic initiatives and structural improvements supporting our medium-term profitability target.
  • 2019 became the fifth straight year for Autoliv to have around 50% global order share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.19B

Previous: $2.19B-0.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.84

Previous: $1.42+29.6%
Operating margin

10.5%

No prior period
Adjusted operating margin

11.1%

No prior period
Operating cash flow

$312M

No prior period
ROCE

24.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$123M

Previous: $135M-8.5%
Free Cash Flow

$194M

Previous: $155M+25.7%
Net Income

$156M

Previous: -$91M+271.3%
Operating Income

$229M

Previous: $21M+990.5%
Gross Profit

$427M

Previous: $425M+0.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$445M

Previous: $616M-27.8%
Total Assets

$6.77B

Previous: $6.72B+0.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Autoliv · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.19B

Q4 2019-0.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the full year 2020, Autoliv expects net sales growth of 3-4% and organic sales growth of 3-4%. The adjusted operating margin is expected to be at least 9.5%.

Tailwinds

  • Organic sales growth will outperform LVP by about 6pp
  • Some support from raw material costs
  • Savings from the structural efficiency program
  • Seasonality to be even more pronounced than in 2019 in terms of quarterly profitability progression
  • Expect a significantly stronger second half year.

Headwinds

  • Expected LVP decline
  • Sharply declining inflator replacement sales
  • Costs for planning and implementing the strategic initiatives with payback in later years
  • The start of the year will be challenging
  • Continuing high level of uncertainty in the automotive markets

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

37 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.0%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-11.2%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.3%+4.3%+3.1%
Q4 2025-4.1%+0.1%-6.3%
Q3 2025-2.6%-4.5%-0.3%
Q2 2025+0.1%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+5.6%+4.0%+24.0%
Q4 2024-4.6%-6.8%-3.9%
Q3 2024+3.1%+2.8%+4.3%
Q2 2024-8.8%-9.9%-8.0%
Q1 2024+4.7%+4.0%+8.5%
Q4 2023+4.4%+3.4%+8.4%
Q3 2023+6.5%+7.7%+13.6%
Q2 2023+9.1%+8.9%-0.3%
Q1 2023-5.6%-6.7%-5.4%
Q4 2022+7.2%+7.8%+7.6%
Q3 2022+7.5%+7.8%+19.2%
Q2 2022+2.5%+4.2%+0.7%
Q1 2022-5.4%-6.7%-1.4%
Q4 2021+3.3%+7.3%-4.0%
Q3 2021-1.7%-0.7%+10.4%
Q2 2021-4.6%-2.2%+3.1%
Q1 2021+8.8%+7.1%+5.1%
Q4 2020+0.1%+0.1%+0.7%
Q3 2020-1.6%-10.7%+5.2%
Q2 2020-3.5%-0.9%+6.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+9.3%+13.0%
Q4 2019+5.2%+3.2%-9.1%
Q3 2019-1.1%-5.2%-0.5%
Q2 2019+3.3%+10.4%-5.6%
Q1 2019+2.3%-2.8%-17.2%
Q4 2018-3.8%-4.7%-0.7%
Q3 2018+6.0%+4.1%+9.7%
Q2 2018+1.2%-1.9%-11.1%
Q1 2018-8.6%-6.1%+0.5%
Q4 2017+10.0%+4.5%+3.7%
Q3 2017+1.4%+2.0%+1.5%
Q2 2017-7.2%-5.9%-9.0%
Q1 2017-7.6%-6.1%+2.8%
Q4 2016-11.2%-11.3%-10.4%
Q3 2016-6.7%-6.9%-0.9%
Q2 2016-7.5%-6.1%-7.3%
Q1 2016+8.1%
Q4 2015-7.0%
Q3 2015+3.3%
Q2 2015+2.9%
Q1 2015-4.2%
Q4 2014+4.2%
Q3 2014-3.3%
Q2 2014-2.5%
Q1 2014-2.4%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013+0.7%
Q2 2013+0.4%
Q1 2013+6.5%
Q4 2012-1.6%
Q3 2012-10.2%
Q2 2012-4.2%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011+1.8%
Q3 2011+6.5%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2010+7.4%
Q1 2011+1.4%
Q4 2010-1.3%
Q4 2008-1.3%
Q3 2009-0.3%
Q3 2010-0.3%
Q2 2009+7.5%
Q2 2010+7.5%
Q4 2009+7.5%

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