NYSE$ACA

Arcosa Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Arcosa's Q4 2019 results demonstrated double-digit increases in revenues and adjusted EBITDA driven by organic and acquisition growth.

Arcosa reported a strong fourth quarter with a 19% increase in revenues to $446.9 million and a 17% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $53.1 million. The company's performance was driven by growth in the Construction Products and Transportation Products segments, particularly in the barge business. They also provided 2020 guidance, expecting revenues and Adjusted EBITDA to increase 17% and 19%, respectively.

  • Revenues increased 19% to $446.9 million.
  • Net income was $21.1 million, with Diluted EPS of $0.43.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% to $53.1 million.
  • Operating cash flow was $139.8 million and free cash flow was $115.4 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$447M

Previous: $374M+19.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.43

Previous: $0.40+7.5%
Utility Structures Backlog

$597M

No prior period
Inland Barges Backlog

$347M

Previous: $231M+50.5%
Capital Expenditures

$24.4M

Previous: $11.8M+106.8%
Free Cash Flow

$115M

Previous: -$11.8M+1078.0%
Net Income

$21.1M

Previous: $27.7M-23.8%
Operating Income

$30.5M

Previous: $26.7M+14.2%
Gross Profit

$77.6M

Previous: $63.5M+22.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$240M

Previous: $99.4M+141.9%
Total Assets

$2.3B

Previous: $2.17B+6.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.5M

Previous: $2.4M+45.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Arcosa · Revenue · Quarterly

$447M

Q4 2019+19.4%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 8 of 9 quarters(89%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Arcosa · $257M total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Engineered Structures
    $156M+0.4%
  • Inland Barges
    $101M+113.8%

Forward guidance

The Company expects full year 2020 revenues of $1.95 billion to $2.1 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 17% at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $275 million to $300 million, up 19% at the midpoint, with approximately 55% of Adjusted EBITDA expected to be generated in the second half of the year, due primarily to the anticipated delivery schedules for our barge and wind tower businesses.

Tailwinds

  • Market conditions across our portfolio remain robust, with a few exceptions.
  • Backlog growth.
  • Strong inquiry levels.
  • Completion of the January 2020 acquisition of Cherry underpin our expectation for double-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth in 2020.
  • Positive demand for our construction products, barges, and utility structures.

Headwinds

  • Headwinds in our rail components business.
  • Lower pricing in our wind towers business.
  • Approximately $15 million of barge revenues shifted into January 2020, causing fourth quarter revenues to be below the Company's expectations.
  • The year-over-year margin decrease primarily resulted from the addition of ACG Materials, which has lower margins than the legacy businesses.
  • Softer demand from ACG aggregates plants serving oil and gas markets, and higher than expected production costs at one of the Company's specialty materials plants.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

18 / 36 earnings

Positive

+24.2%

Q1 2018

Best reaction

-16.3%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.4%+3.9%+0.2%
Q4 2025-16.3%-11.7%-19.3%
Q3 2025-1.1%+7.6%+14.3%
Q1 2025-4.5%+5.3%+4.2%
Q4 2024-8.4%-10.1%-12.7%
Q3 2024-0.7%+1.5%+15.2%
Q2 2024-14.8%-16.4%-1.5%
Q1 2024+11.7%+15.0%+15.1%
Q4 2023-0.0%+0.9%+4.0%
Q3 2023-5.7%-1.6%+9.1%
Q2 2023+2.5%+0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2023+15.8%+18.8%+15.3%
Q4 2022+10.3%+6.2%+6.3%
Q3 2022-2.7%-8.5%-2.8%
Q2 2022+13.8%+19.5%+8.9%
Q1 2022+1.8%+4.3%+3.6%
Q4 2021+5.4%+12.8%+24.5%
Q3 2021-3.0%+3.7%-0.7%
Q2 2021-4.5%-6.6%-6.0%
Q1 2021-5.0%+1.6%+0.1%
Q4 2020-12.1%+5.6%+3.1%
Q3 2020-1.1%+1.9%+18.2%
Q2 2020-1.8%-0.1%+8.1%
Q1 2020-3.3%-10.5%-2.7%
Q4 2019+3.7%+7.0%-11.3%
Q3 2019+3.8%+6.0%+6.0%
Q2 2019-6.2%-8.1%-13.4%
Q1 2018+24.2%+19.8%+11.9%
Q1 2019+20.7%+18.0%+9.3%
Q4 2016+6.4%+8.7%-4.2%
Q2 2018+6.4%+8.7%-4.2%
Q2 2017+6.4%+8.7%-4.2%
Q1 2017+6.4%+8.7%-4.2%
Q4 2018+6.1%+10.6%-3.2%
Q3 2017+1.5%-1.9%-21.1%
Q3 2018+1.5%-1.9%-21.1%

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