NASDAQ$SBUX

Starbucks Corp · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Starbucks Q2 2020 financial results reported a decline in revenue and earnings due to the adverse impact of COVID-19, but highlighted a substantial recovery in China.

Starbucks Q2 fiscal 2020 results were negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 5% decrease in consolidated net revenues to $6.0 billion and a 47% decrease in GAAP EPS to $0.28. Global comparable store sales declined by 10%, driven by a decrease in comparable transactions. However, the company saw steady business improvement in China, with substantially all stores reopened and customer engagement growing.

  • Global comparable store sales declined 10%, impacted by a 13% decrease in comparable transactions, but partially offset by a 4% increase in average ticket.
  • Consolidated net revenues decreased 5% year-over-year to $6.0 billion due to lost sales related to the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • GAAP operating margin contracted 550 basis points year-over-year to 8.1%, primarily due to sales deleverage and additional costs incurred in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • Starbucks Rewards loyalty program grew to 19.4 million active members in the U.S., up 15% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6B

Previous: $6.31B-4.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.32

Previous: $0.60-46.7%
Global comp sales

-10.0%

No prior period
Total global stores

32.0K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$758M

Previous: -$846M+10.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$430M

Previous: -$182M-135.7%
Net Income

$328M

Previous: $663M-50.5%
Operating Income

$487M

Previous: $858M-43.2%
Gross Profit

$4B

Previous: $3.7B+8.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.57B

Previous: $2.06B+25.2%
Total Assets

$27.5B

Previous: $17.6B+55.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$56.3M

Previous: $94.8M-40.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Starbucks · Revenue · Quarterly

$6B

Q2 2020-4.9%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Starbucks · $6B total across 3 segments · Q2 2020

  • Company-operated
    $4.77B
  • Licensed stores
    $690M
  • Other
    $540M

Forward guidance

Due to the dynamic nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on the business globally, total company guidance for fiscal 2020 will remain suspended, except for selected metrics. The negative financial impacts of COVID-19 are expected to be significantly greater in Q3 FY20 compared to Q2 FY20, and to extend into Q4 FY20 but at a more moderate level.

Tailwinds

  • China's sales are expected to substantially recover with comparable store sales roughly flat to prior year levels at the end of fiscal year 2020.
  • At least 500 net new stores in China
  • Based on substantial experience in China to date, the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak are temporary and the business will fully recover over time.
  • Channel Development GAAP revenue decline of 6% to 8% with modest operating margin improvement
  • The company will continue to provide transparent updates as it gains visibility to performance trends, as well as the steps it is taking to position the company for full recovery.

Headwinds

  • Approximately 50% of company-operated stores in the U.S. are temporarily closed.
  • More than 75% of stores in Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom are temporarily closed.
  • Approximately 50% of the global licensed store portfolio is also closed
  • The company is currently unable to estimate full company financial impacts with reasonable accuracy.
  • The negative financial impacts of COVID-19 are expected to be significantly greater in Q3 FY20 compared to Q2 FY20, and to extend into Q4 FY20 but at a more moderate level.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

37 / 73 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-15.7%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.1%+7.9%+1.9%
Q1 2026-0.8%-4.2%+2.4%
Q4 2025-0.9%-5.4%+3.5%
Q3 2025-0.2%-3.4%-5.1%
Q2 2025-5.7%-3.8%-1.1%
Q1 2025+8.1%+7.7%+15.3%
Q4 2024+0.3%+0.9%+3.7%
Q3 2024+3.7%+0.9%+26.1%
Q2 2024-15.7%-17.2%-10.8%
Q1 2024-0.8%-0.9%+1.2%
Q4 2023+12.4%+13.5%+8.6%
Q3 2023+0.6%-0.9%-4.1%
Q2 2023-9.3%-6.4%-14.9%
Q1 2023-5.2%-2.9%-4.9%
Q4 2022+8.6%+9.7%+24.2%
Q3 2022+2.8%+1.0%+0.6%
Q2 2022+8.3%+1.5%+5.4%
Q1 2022-0.6%-3.4%-6.9%
Q4 2021-6.6%-1.8%-2.5%
Q3 2021-2.9%-3.7%-9.3%
Q2 2021-3.0%-1.2%-2.1%
Q1 2021-5.4%-6.4%+0.0%
Q4 2020-0.2%+1.4%+13.2%
Q3 2020+1.3%+0.1%+9.1%
Q2 2020-1.1%-5.1%+1.0%
Q1 2020-2.3%-4.4%-11.8%
Q4 2019+0.5%-2.1%+1.5%
Q3 2019+9.3%+6.6%+4.5%
Q2 2019+1.4%+1.7%-0.3%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.9%+7.3%
Q4 2018+10.4%+13.3%+14.5%
Q3 2018+1.0%+1.5%+2.2%
Q2 2018+1.1%+0.7%+0.4%
Q1 2018-4.7%-6.0%-7.7%
Q4 2017+1.6%+3.8%+4.0%
Q3 2017-6.8%-5.5%-6.2%
Q2 2017-2.4%-1.7%+2.8%
Q1 2017-4.4%-5.9%-2.1%
Q4 2016-0.4%+3.1%+8.0%
Q3 2016+0.6%+1.3%-4.5%
Q2 2016-5.3%
Q1 2016+4.0%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015+1.1%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015+8.5%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014-0.5%
Q2 2014+1.5%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q4 2013+1.8%
Q3 2013+10.1%
Q2 2013+0.3%
Q1 2013+4.3%
Q4 2012+10.8%
Q3 2012-5.8%
Q2 2012-3.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.9%
Q3 2011-7.8%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2011+3.5%
Q4 2010-1.2%
Q3 2010-0.6%
Q2 2010-3.5%
Q1 2009+0.8%
Q1 2010+0.7%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q4 2007+0.4%
Q3 2009-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%
Q3 2008-2.1%

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