NASDAQ$SAFT

Safety Insurance Group Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Safety Insurance reported increased net income and non-GAAP operating income, but decreased direct written premium for Q4 2020.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. reported a strong fourth quarter in 2020, with net income increasing to $53.0 million, or $3.55 per diluted share, compared to $28.1 million, or $1.82 per diluted share, in the same period of 2019. Non-GAAP operating income also rose to $2.55 per diluted share from $1.44 per diluted share in the prior year. However, direct written premiums saw a decrease of 3.7% during the quarter.

  • Net income for Q4 2020 was $53.0 million, or $3.55 per diluted share, up from $28.1 million, or $1.82 per diluted share, in Q4 2019.
  • Non-GAAP operating income for Q4 2020 was $2.55 per diluted share, compared to $1.44 per diluted share in Q4 2019.
  • Direct written premiums for Q4 2020 decreased by 3.7% to $182.6 million from $189.7 million in Q4 2019.
  • The loss ratio for Q4 2020 improved to 48.8% from 63.4% in Q4 2019, primarily due to fewer cars on the road.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$196M

Previous: $199M-1.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.55

Previous: $1.44+77.1%
Capital Expenditures

$1.82M

Previous: $3.24M-43.8%
Free Cash Flow

$31.5M

Previous: $39.6M-20.3%
Net Income

$53M

Previous: $28.1M+88.5%
Operating Income

$67.8M

Previous: $35.5M+91.2%
Gross Profit

$229M

Previous: $223M+2.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$53.8M

Previous: $44.4M+21.1%
Total Assets

$2.05B

Previous: $2.02B+1.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Safety Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$196M

Q4 2020-1.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 14 quarters(79%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Safety Insurance · $207M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Net Earned Premiums
    $196M
  • Net Investment Income
    $10.7M

Forward guidance

The press release contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The impact of COVID-19 and related risks could materially affect the Company's results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity. Other risks and factors identified from time to time in the company's reports filed with the SEC.

Tailwinds

  • Company is taking actions to address the health and well-being of employees.
  • Company is still serving the needs of agents.
  • Company is still serving the needs of insureds.
  • Loss ratio improved due to decreased frequency of claims.
  • Prior year favorable development included in the pre-tax results increased.

Headwinds

  • Competitive nature of the industry
  • Conditions for business operations and restrictive regulations in Massachusetts
  • Possibility of losses due to claims resulting from severe weather
  • Possible need for and availability of additional financing
  • Effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on the Company’s business are uncertain

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

31 / 65 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-8.1%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.9%-4.2%-3.6%
Q4 2025-0.7%-3.5%-7.3%
Q3 2025+2.0%+9.6%+6.0%
Q1 2025+0.3%-1.5%-4.9%
Q4 2024-5.5%-4.0%-0.6%
Q3 2024+12.8%+10.3%+11.3%
Q2 2024+0.7%+1.0%+6.7%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.7%-5.3%
Q4 2023-3.8%-6.3%-3.8%
Q3 2023+4.2%+3.9%+3.0%
Q2 2023+0.7%+2.7%-3.8%
Q1 2023-1.6%-2.9%+3.7%
Q4 2022-8.1%-7.2%-16.1%
Q3 2022-3.0%+1.4%+4.4%
Q2 2022-0.2%+4.4%+4.3%
Q1 2022+1.9%+1.7%+7.9%
Q4 2021-2.3%-2.4%+7.0%
Q3 2021-0.5%+1.4%-0.4%
Q2 2021+1.6%+4.2%+4.8%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+1.2%
Q4 2020+2.8%+1.2%+6.0%
Q3 2020-0.9%+2.6%+5.4%
Q2 2020+1.5%+6.9%-3.8%
Q1 2020-3.2%-3.2%+0.9%
Q4 2019-6.2%-8.8%-15.5%
Q3 2019-3.3%-3.5%-2.9%
Q2 2019-3.0%-6.3%-4.0%
Q1 2019+0.3%+3.0%-1.9%
Q4 2018+0.1%-3.9%-4.7%
Q3 2018-1.6%+0.6%+3.0%
Q2 2018+2.3%+0.7%+5.6%
Q1 2018-0.9%+0.4%+7.3%
Q4 2017-2.5%-3.7%+4.0%
Q3 2017-1.3%-2.0%+0.4%
Q2 2017+3.5%+0.6%-0.3%
Q1 2017-1.6%-3.8%-5.1%
Q4 2016+1.0%-2.0%-6.2%
Q3 2016-2.4%-2.2%+4.7%
Q2 2016+1.3%+1.4%+7.4%
Q1 2016+5.1%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015-2.3%
Q2 2015-4.0%
Q1 2015-5.2%
Q4 2014-1.4%
Q3 2014-5.9%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013-2.7%
Q3 2013+2.3%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013-0.2%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2012-2.2%
Q2 2012+1.4%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q1 2012+2.5%
Q4 2009+1.3%
Q4 2011+1.3%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q3 2010-2.9%
Q2 2011+2.3%
Q2 2010+2.3%
Q4 2010+2.3%
Q1 2010+0.4%

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