NASDAQ$PZZA

Papa John's International Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Papa John's announced Q4 2019 results, showing positive comparable sales and progress in its turnaround strategy.

Papa John's International, Inc. reported a Q4 2019 revenue increase of 5.0% compared to Q4 2018, with a loss per diluted share of ($0.18) and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.37. System-wide North America comparable sales increased by 3.5%, and international comparable sales increased by 2.4%. The company reported 52 net unit openings during the quarter.

  • Fourth quarter 2019 adjusted EPS was $0.37, up from $0.18 in the fourth quarter 2018.
  • System-wide North America comparable sales increased 3.5% in the fourth quarter.
  • International comparable sales increased 2.4% for the fourth quarter.
  • The company saw 52 net unit openings in the fourth quarter, driven by international expansion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$418M

Previous: $374M+11.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.37

Previous: $0.15+146.7%
Domestic Comp Sales Growth

4.1%

No prior period
NA Franchised Comp Growth

3.3%

No prior period
NA Comp Sales Growth

3.5%

No prior period
International Comp Growth

2.4%

No prior period
Global System-wide Growth

4.4%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$10.2M

Previous: $11.4M-11.1%
Free Cash Flow

$1.59M

Previous: -$37.5M+104.2%
Net Income

-$2.14M

Previous: -$13.8M+84.5%
Operating Income

-$132K

Previous: -$8.31M+98.4%
Gross Profit

$79.3M

Previous: $80.6M-1.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$27.9M

Previous: $33.3M-16.1%
Total Assets

$731M

Previous: $596M+22.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.01M

Previous: $2.86M+5.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Papa John's · Revenue · Quarterly

$418M

Q4 2019+11.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Papa John's · $418M total across 5 segments · Q4 2019

  • North America Commissaries
    $162M
  • Domestic Company-owned
    $161M
  • All Other
    $48.4M
  • International
    $27.1M
  • North America Franchising
    $18.6M

Forward guidance

Papa John's provided its key operating assumptions and financial outlook for 2020.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP EPS of $0.60 to $0.90 for the full-year
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.35 to $1.55, excluding Special charges that are anticipated for 2020
  • North America comparable sales of 2.5% to 5.0%
  • International comparable sales of 1.5% to 4.0%
  • Net global new unit growth of 100 to 140 net units

Headwinds

  • Income tax rate of 20% to 23%
  • Block cheese prices are projected to be in the low to mid $1.80
  • Capital expenditures of $40 million - $50 million
  • Special charges include the costs associated with the previously announced program to provide assistance to the North America franchise system
  • Franchise royalty relief and National Marketing Fund investments, both of which are expected to end in the third quarter of 2020.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+17.6%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-17.2%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.7%+0.9%-5.6%
Q4 2025-8.6%-5.4%-6.1%
Q3 2025+3.7%+2.4%-0.2%
Q1 2025+15.9%+24.5%+49.9%
Q4 2024+1.4%+0.8%-13.8%
Q3 2024-5.4%-12.4%-16.3%
Q2 2024+5.6%+9.2%+10.4%
Q1 2024-6.7%-8.0%-17.7%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.8%-5.1%
Q3 2023+4.2%+3.6%+3.7%
Q2 2023-0.6%+0.2%-5.5%
Q1 2023+3.1%+3.3%-4.6%
Q4 2022-7.3%-9.1%-17.4%
Q3 2022+2.7%+3.9%+13.1%
Q2 2022-5.0%-6.2%-18.1%
Q1 2022-5.8%-7.2%-5.3%
Q4 2021+0.6%+2.2%-5.8%
Q3 2021+7.3%+7.1%+0.8%
Q2 2021+4.1%+4.4%+13.3%
Q1 2021+5.7%+3.2%+0.8%
Q4 2020-12.1%-12.1%-13.9%
Q3 2020+9.7%+4.7%+6.2%
Q2 2020-1.0%-5.5%-8.8%
Q1 2020+6.1%+9.1%+3.8%
Q4 2019-13.6%+6.0%+45.0%
Q3 2019+9.4%+9.5%+5.7%
Q2 2019+3.6%+7.7%+15.7%
Q1 2019-2.3%-1.9%-5.4%
Q4 2018+2.1%+3.5%+24.1%
Q3 2018+3.4%+1.3%-16.0%
Q2 2018-8.0%-4.9%+9.1%
Q1 2018-4.3%-11.1%-12.2%
Q4 2017+0.8%+5.9%+0.1%
Q3 2017-7.1%-8.3%-12.8%
Q2 2017+9.3%+7.9%+4.9%
Q1 2017+0.7%+3.2%+4.2%
Q4 2016-7.5%-8.5%-13.6%
Q3 2016+4.0%+2.7%+15.7%
Q2 2016+4.3%+1.8%+1.3%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+12.3%
Q3 2015-17.2%
Q2 2015-6.4%
Q1 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014-1.8%
Q3 2014+7.1%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q1 2014-2.9%
Q4 2013+7.2%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013+3.8%
Q1 2013+1.9%
Q4 2012-8.1%
Q3 2012-5.4%
Q2 2012+1.7%
Q1 2012+17.6%
Q4 2011-7.0%
Q3 2011+6.6%
Q2 2011-1.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q3 2010-2.6%
Q2 2010-5.5%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q4 2007+7.3%
Q4 2009+7.3%
Q3 2008+0.7%
Q3 2009+0.7%
Q2 2009+7.0%
Q1 2008+6.8%
Q4 2008+6.8%
Q2 2008+6.8%
Q1 2009+6.8%

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