NASDAQ$PZZA

Papa John's International Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Papa John's financial performance reflected solid system-wide restaurant sales growth, transaction-led North America comp growth, and improving North America restaurant-level margin.

Papa John's International, Inc. announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 24, 2023. Key highlights include a 3% increase in North America comparable sales, driven by transaction growth at Domestic Company-owned restaurants and North America franchised restaurants. Global system-wide restaurant sales reached $1.23 billion, a 5% increase from the prior year. Total revenues were $523 million, up 2% from the third quarter a year ago. Operating income increased 64% to $32 million, and diluted earnings per share was $0.48.

  • North America comparable sales increased by 3% compared to the third quarter of 2022, driven by transaction growth.
  • Global system-wide restaurant sales grew by 5% year-over-year, reaching $1.23 billion.
  • Total revenues increased by 2% to $523 million, driven by higher Domestic Company-owned restaurant sales and International revenues.
  • Operating income increased by 64% to $32 million, reflecting improved North America comparable sales and operational efficiency.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$523M

Previous: $511M+2.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.53

Previous: $0.54-1.9%
Domestic Comp Sales Growth

5.9%

Previous: -2.2%+368.2%
NA Franchised Comp Growth

2.2%

Previous: -0.5%+540.0%
NA Comp Sales Growth

2.9%

Previous: -0.8%+462.5%
International Comp Growth

-0.3%

Previous: -10.1%+97.0%
Total Comp Sales Growth

2.2%

Previous: -3.4%+164.7%
Global System-wide Growth

5.1%

Previous: 0.5%+920.0%
NA System-wide Growth

3.9%

Previous: 0.8%+387.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$50.9M

Previous: -$48.4M-5.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$35M

Previous: -$40.1M+12.6%
Net Income

$15.9M

Previous: $8.33M+90.4%
Operating Income

$31.9M

Previous: $19.5M+63.8%
Gross Profit

$2.3M

Previous: $3M-23.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$37.5M

Previous: $36.6M+2.4%
Total Assets

$878M

Previous: $830M+5.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.73M

Previous: $5.15M-8.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Papa John's · Revenue · Quarterly

$523M

Q3 2023+2.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Papa John's · $460M total across 4 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America Commissaries
    $205M-5.2%
  • Domestic Company-owned
    $177M+6.7%
  • International
    $42.9M+39.7%
  • North America Franchising
    $35M+3.9%

Forward guidance

Papa John's is increasing its fixed operating margin by 100 basis points in each of the next four years, from 4% in 2023 to 8% in 2027 and will be offering new opportunities for franchisees to earn annual incentive-based rebates as they increase volume and open new restaurants.

Tailwinds

  • Menu innovation
  • Revenue management enhancements
  • Continued growth in our third-party aggregator channel contributed to our year-over-year sales growth this quarter.
  • Strong execution by our teams and franchisees led to solid system-wide restaurant sales growth
  • Ability to grow transactions in an ongoing challenging environment, while maintaining average ticket, confirms the strong consumer demand for our product offerings.

Headwinds

  • Dilutive impact of recently acquired restaurants in the UK
  • Higher variable compensation expense
  • Employee benefit costs
  • Depreciation expense compared with a year ago
  • Lower North America commissary revenues, a result of decreased commodity prices in 2023 compared with 2022

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+17.6%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-17.2%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.7%+0.9%-5.6%
Q4 2025-8.6%-5.4%-6.1%
Q3 2025+3.7%+2.4%-0.2%
Q1 2025+15.9%+24.5%+49.9%
Q4 2024+1.4%+0.8%-13.8%
Q3 2024-5.4%-12.4%-16.3%
Q2 2024+5.6%+9.2%+10.4%
Q1 2024-6.7%-8.0%-17.7%
Q4 2023-0.3%+0.8%-5.1%
Q3 2023+4.2%+3.6%+3.7%
Q2 2023-0.6%+0.2%-5.5%
Q1 2023+3.1%+3.3%-4.6%
Q4 2022-7.3%-9.1%-17.4%
Q3 2022+2.7%+3.9%+13.1%
Q2 2022-5.0%-6.2%-18.1%
Q1 2022-5.8%-7.2%-5.3%
Q4 2021+0.6%+2.2%-5.8%
Q3 2021+7.3%+7.1%+0.8%
Q2 2021+4.1%+4.4%+13.3%
Q1 2021+5.7%+3.2%+0.8%
Q4 2020-12.1%-12.1%-13.9%
Q3 2020+9.7%+4.7%+6.2%
Q2 2020-1.0%-5.5%-8.8%
Q1 2020+6.1%+9.1%+3.8%
Q4 2019-13.6%+6.0%+45.0%
Q3 2019+9.4%+9.5%+5.7%
Q2 2019+3.6%+7.7%+15.7%
Q1 2019-2.3%-1.9%-5.4%
Q4 2018+2.1%+3.5%+24.1%
Q3 2018+3.4%+1.3%-16.0%
Q2 2018-8.0%-4.9%+9.1%
Q1 2018-4.3%-11.1%-12.2%
Q4 2017+0.8%+5.9%+0.1%
Q3 2017-7.1%-8.3%-12.8%
Q2 2017+9.3%+7.9%+4.9%
Q1 2017+0.7%+3.2%+4.2%
Q4 2016-7.5%-8.5%-13.6%
Q3 2016+4.0%+2.7%+15.7%
Q2 2016+4.3%+1.8%+1.3%
Q1 2016+4.4%
Q4 2015+12.3%
Q3 2015-17.2%
Q2 2015-6.4%
Q1 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014-1.8%
Q3 2014+7.1%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q1 2014-2.9%
Q4 2013+7.2%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013+3.8%
Q1 2013+1.9%
Q4 2012-8.1%
Q3 2012-5.4%
Q2 2012+1.7%
Q1 2012+17.6%
Q4 2011-7.0%
Q3 2011+6.6%
Q2 2011-1.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010+0.5%
Q3 2010-2.6%
Q2 2010-5.5%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q4 2007+7.3%
Q4 2009+7.3%
Q3 2008+0.7%
Q3 2009+0.7%
Q2 2009+7.0%
Q1 2008+6.8%
Q4 2008+6.8%
Q2 2008+6.8%
Q1 2009+6.8%

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