NASDAQ$PTLO

Portillo's Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Portillo's reported a strong fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023, marked by revenue growth and positive same-restaurant sales.

Portillo's Inc. reported a 24.5% increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching $187.9 million. Same-restaurant sales increased by 4.4%. Operating income increased to $14.5 million, and net income rose to $9.6 million. The company opened six new restaurants during the quarter, bringing the total restaurant count to 84.

  • Total revenue increased by 24.5% to $187.9 million compared to Q4 2022.
  • Same-restaurant sales increased by 4.4%.
  • Operating income increased to $14.5 million, up from $6.4 million in the prior year.
  • Net income increased to $9.6 million, compared to $2.7 million in Q4 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$188M

Previous: $151M+24.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.13

Previous: $0.08+62.5%
Same-restaurant sales change

4.4%

Previous: 6.0%-26.7%
Total restaurants

84

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$30.3M

Previous: $17M-277.5%
Net Income

$9.6M

Previous: $2.7M+255.6%
Operating Income

$14.5M

Previous: $6.4M+126.6%
Gross Profit

$39.2M

Previous: $58M-32.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.5M

Previous: $4.79M-27.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Portillo's · Revenue · Quarterly

$188M

Q4 2023+24.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For fiscal 2024, the Company is anticipating at least nine new restaurant openings, commodity inflation ranging from 4% to 6%, general and administrative expenses ranging from $85 million - $87 million, pre-opening expenses between $8.0 million - $9.0 million and capital expenditures between $90 million - $93 million.

Tailwinds

  • At least nine new restaurant openings are planned for fiscal 2024.
  • Focus on leveraging the unit economic model in markets outside Chicagoland.
  • Short-term growth strategy emphasizes the Sunbelt region, including Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
  • Continue filling in Chicagoland and adjacent markets as opportunities arise.
  • Expects commodity inflation to stay consistent with recent trends.

Headwinds

  • Anticipates commodity inflation ranging from 4% to 6%.
  • Expects general and administrative expenses ranging from $85 million - $87 million.
  • Pre-opening expenses are projected to be between $8.0 million - $9.0 million.
  • Capital expenditures are estimated to be between $90 million - $93 million.
  • Anticipate additional wage investments and are currently estimating mid-single digit wage inflation.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-6.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-11.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

10 / 23 earnings

Positive

+11.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q3 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-16.5%-25.0%-33.7%
Q4 2025-7.1%-7.8%-7.1%
Q3 2025-7.4%-5.7%-5.5%
Q1 2025+1.0%+8.1%+8.1%
Q4 2024+9.8%+2.9%-8.3%
Q3 2024-3.7%-8.3%-23.4%
Q2 2024+11.5%+20.6%+34.6%
Q1 2024-14.7%-16.6%-16.9%
Q4 2023+11.8%+3.7%+3.1%
Q3 2023+9.0%+2.5%+5.2%
Q2 2023-13.1%-14.5%-18.3%
Q1 2023-11.4%-10.8%-10.9%
Q4 2022-0.5%-2.1%-4.4%
Q3 2022+5.0%+7.9%-4.0%
Q2 2022+10.0%+2.5%-9.6%
Q2 2021+10.0%+2.5%-9.6%
Q1 2021+7.7%-4.0%-8.0%
Q1 2022+7.7%-4.0%-8.0%
Q4 2021-7.8%-5.2%-10.4%
Q4 2019-7.8%-5.2%-10.4%
Q3 2020-17.5%-26.4%-41.5%
Q4 2020-17.5%-26.4%-41.5%
Q3 2021-17.5%-26.4%-41.5%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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