NASDAQ$OTLY

Oatly Group AB · Q3 2025 earnings

Q3 2025 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Oatly reported profitable growth in Q3 2025, with increased revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA, despite a net loss primarily due to fair value losses on Convertible Notes.

Oatly Group AB achieved profitable growth in the third quarter of 2025, with a 7.1% increase in revenue to $222.8 million and a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million. This marks a significant improvement from the prior year's Adjusted EBITDA loss. However, the company reported a net loss of $65.3 million, primarily driven by fair value losses on Convertible Notes.

  • Revenue increased by 7.1% to $222.8 million, with constant currency revenue growth of 3.8% compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $3.1 million, an improvement of $8.2 million from a loss in the prior year period.
  • Gross margin remained flat at 29.8%, benefiting from supply chain efficiency and foreign exchange, offset by North America volume declines and Greater China mix impact.
  • Net loss attributable to shareholders increased to $65.3 million, primarily due to $32.2 million in fair value losses on Convertible Notes.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$223M

Previous: $209M+6.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.11

Previous: -$0.06-83.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$3.12M

No prior period
Gross margin

29.8%

No prior period
Produced finished goods volume

147.6M

No prior period
Sold volume

150.6M

No prior period
Net Income

-$65.3M

Previous: -$34.8M-87.8%
Operating Income

-$16.9M

Previous: -$27.8M+39.2%
Gross Profit

$66.3M

Previous: $62.4M+6.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Oatly · Revenue · Quarterly

$223M

Q3 2025+6.5%vs Q3 2024
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Oatly · $228M total across 3 segments · Q1 2026

  • Europe & International
    $137M
  • North America
    $62.2M
  • Greater China
    $29.3M

Forward guidance

Oatly reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, expecting constant currency revenue growth to be flat to +1% and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $5 million and $15 million. Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $20 million.

Tailwinds

  • Expected constant currency revenue growth in the range of approximately flat to +1%.
  • Anticipated positive Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $5 million to $15 million.
  • Capital expenditures expected to be approximately $20 million, indicating controlled spending.
  • Foreign exchange is expected to be a tailwind to revenue growth by approximately 250 basis points.
  • Ongoing strategic review of Greater China business could lead to improved focus and efficiency.

Headwinds

  • Outlook provided in the context of significant macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • Geopolitical uncertainties could impact future financial results.
  • Inability to provide reconciliation of non-IFRS guidance to IFRS metrics due to prediction difficulties.
  • The strategic review of Greater China business has no definitive timetable and no assurances of a transaction or strategic change.
  • Potential for varying items excluded from non-IFRS measures to significantly impact future financial results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 16 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2025

Historical avgQ3 2025

-4.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-6.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-7.6%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

7 / 17 earnings

Positive

+17.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-24.4%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.0%+2.6%-16.0%
Q4 2025+10.7%+9.7%-7.7%
Q3 2025-3.5%-5.0%-20.9%
Q2 2025+0.5%-2.6%+16.8%
Q3 2024-15.0%-25.6%-24.4%
Q1 2024+17.0%+23.0%+7.0%
Q4 2023-9.3%-13.3%-26.5%
Q3 2023-10.0%-11.7%+85.0%
Q2 2023-24.4%-29.5%-42.4%
Q1 2023+4.7%-2.3%-9.3%
Q4 2022+5.3%+18.0%+10.7%
Q3 2022-16.7%-20.4%-44.9%
Q2 2022-9.9%+1.3%-19.4%
Q1 2022+3.2%-12.9%+16.0%
Q4 2021-6.3%-17.8%-22.3%
Q3 2021-13.9%-15.0%-31.5%
Q2 2021-5.6%-7.4%+0.6%
Q1 2021
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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