NASDAQ$MRCY

Mercury Systems Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results, showing revenue decrease and net loss, while implementing an enhanced execution plan.

Mercury Systems reported a decrease in Q4 revenue to $253.2 million compared to $289.7 million in the same period last year. The company experienced a net loss of $8.2 million, or $0.15 per share, a significant shift from the net income of $16.9 million, or $0.30 per share, in Q4 2022. Management is focused on enhanced execution of challenged programs, building a thriving organic growth engine, addressing cost structure, and accelerating free cash flow conversion.

  • Q4 revenues were $253.2 million, compared to $289.7 million in Q4 2022.
  • Q4 GAAP net loss was $8.2 million, or $0.15 per share, compared to net income of $16.9 million, or $0.30 per share, in Q4 2022.
  • Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.11, compared to $0.81 in Q4 2022.
  • Total backlog at June 30, 2023, was $1.14 billion, an increase of $102.1 million from a year ago.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$253M

Previous: $290M-12.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.11

Previous: $0.81-86.4%
Capital Expenditures

$8.85M

Previous: $8.18M+8.1%
Free Cash Flow

$3.76M

Previous: -$27.6M+113.6%
Net Income

-$8.24M

Previous: $16.9M-148.7%
Operating Income

-$8.9M

Previous: $27.6M-132.2%
Gross Profit

$67.4M

Previous: $120M-43.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$71.6M

Previous: $65.7M+9.0%
Total Assets

$2.39B

Previous: $2.3B+3.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$307K

Previous: $12M-97.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercury · Revenue · Quarterly

$253M

Q4 2023-12.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the full fiscal year 2024, revenues are forecasted to be in the range of $950.0 million to $1.00 billion, and GAAP net loss of $13.7 million to $5.9 million, or $0.24 to $0.10 loss per share.

Tailwinds

  • Revenues are forecasted to be in the range of $950.0 million to $1.00 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the full fiscal year is expected to be approximately $160.0 million to $185.0 million.
  • Adjusted EPS for the full fiscal year is expected to be approximately $1.14 to $1.48 per share.
  • Initial cost actions result in approximately $20 million to $22 million of net savings in fiscal 2024
  • Strong demand environment supports long-term outlook

Headwinds

  • GAAP net loss of $13.7 million to $5.9 million
  • Execution challenges on approximately 20 programs drove approximately $56 million of impact and forecasting volatility in the fiscal year.
  • Working capital has grown from approximately 35% of revenue to approximately 65% of revenue in fiscal 2023
  • A larger than normal mix of development programs and outsized costs associated with a handful of challenged programs have added variability and pressured fiscal 2023 results
  • Despite strong demand, a small number of our programs are facing short-term execution challenges, which have obscured the underlying strength of our core business.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

33 / 64 earnings

Positive

+27.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-23.7%

Q3 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+16.8%+10.8%+34.0%
Q2 2026-18.9%-14.0%-13.0%
Q1 2026+3.4%-1.4%-6.8%
Q3 2025-4.9%-7.8%+5.4%
Q2 2025+18.5%+11.6%+4.2%
Q1 2025+27.0%+28.4%+15.4%
Q4 2024+17.9%+18.1%+8.5%
Q3 2024-1.4%-4.1%+3.4%
Q2 2024-11.5%-3.3%+1.4%
Q1 2024-13.5%-12.9%-2.8%
Q4 2023+3.2%+7.1%+8.4%
Q3 2023-19.7%-13.9%-13.8%
Q2 2023+14.8%+12.9%+9.1%
Q1 2023+3.4%-0.7%+6.4%
Q4 2022-16.1%-14.1%-21.0%
Q3 2022+4.9%+1.0%+11.4%
Q2 2022-8.5%-8.5%+21.1%
Q1 2022+0.3%-1.1%-8.6%
Q4 2021-14.3%-14.3%-23.8%
Q3 2021-23.7%-15.1%-13.3%
Q2 2021+0.2%+6.1%-10.0%
Q1 2021-1.4%-3.0%+0.1%
Q4 2020+0.0%+0.5%-5.3%
Q3 2020+9.3%+2.0%+4.5%
Q2 2020+2.6%+1.6%+5.2%
Q1 2020-1.8%+3.2%+1.8%
Q4 2019+17.5%+15.1%+23.1%
Q3 2019+2.5%+1.7%-3.6%
Q2 2019+18.8%+18.5%+29.6%
Q1 2019+7.6%+10.2%+16.9%
Q4 2018+22.6%+19.9%+35.3%
Q3 2018-23.1%-27.3%-20.0%
Q2 2018-4.4%-5.4%-5.9%
Q1 2018-3.4%-3.4%+1.0%
Q4 2017-0.9%+0.7%+9.9%
Q3 2017-5.8%-5.9%+1.6%
Q2 2017+9.4%+9.9%+21.9%
Q1 2017+13.6%+14.5%+29.8%
Q4 2016-1.6%-9.5%-11.4%
Q3 2016+4.8%
Q2 2016+12.9%
Q1 2016+5.7%
Q4 2015+9.7%
Q3 2015-4.1%
Q2 2015+4.7%
Q1 2015+13.6%
Q4 2014-0.6%
Q3 2014+5.3%
Q2 2014+0.0%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+1.3%
Q3 2013+5.8%
Q2 2013-6.7%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2010-2.0%
Q4 2012-15.8%
Q3 2011-6.3%
Q3 2012+4.5%
Q2 2011-1.3%
Q2 2012-10.2%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q1 2011-2.6%
Q1 2012+4.1%
Q3 2010-8.5%

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