NASDAQ$MCRI

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record net revenue and net income.

Monarch Casino & Resort reported a 3.8% increase in net revenue to $62.1 million and a net income of $6.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 5.3% year-over-year. The company is progressing with the Black Hawk expansion and anticipates a soft opening in the second quarter of 2020.

  • Net revenue increased by 3.8% compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 5.3% year-over-year.
  • Net income decreased by 14.6% due to pre-opening expenses and professional service fees.
  • Monarch is set to debut in-person and mobile sports betting in Colorado on May 1, 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$62.1M

Previous: $59.8M+3.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.40

Previous: $0.39+2.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$14.1M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$19M

Previous: $35.4M-46.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.75M

Previous: -$21.6M+82.7%
Net Income

$6.2M

Previous: $7.26M-14.6%
Gross Profit

$31.4M

Previous: $30.3M+3.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$60.5M

Previous: $30.5M+98.7%
Total Assets

$611M

Previous: $455M+34.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.31M

Previous: $1.27M+81.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Monarch · Revenue · Quarterly

$62.1M

Q4 2019+3.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Monarch expects to welcome guests to the new Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk and believes the expanded property will be the premier casino resort destination in Colorado. Gross leverage is expected to peak at approximately 3.5x, with rapid deleveraging anticipated once cash flow increases and spending on the project decreases.

Tailwinds

  • Expanded Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk is expected to be the premier casino resort destination in Colorado.
  • Gross leverage expected to peak at approximately 3.5x.
  • Plan to rapidly de-lever once cash flow increases and spending on the project decreases.
  • Strong balance sheet.
  • Healthy cash flow.

Headwinds

  • COVID-19 impacting results.
  • Construction disruption in Black Hawk.
  • Tight employment environment.
  • Wage inflation.
  • Labor challenges.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.7%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

36 / 65 earnings

Positive

+19.1%

Q3 2015

Best reaction

-34.0%

Q4 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+15.8%+19.3%+18.3%
Q4 2025+2.3%+7.4%+5.6%
Q3 2025-4.2%-4.2%-0.6%
Q2 2025-1.3%-0.6%+2.3%
Q1 2025+2.4%+1.6%+7.7%
Q3 2024+6.3%+7.3%+14.5%
Q2 2024+9.4%+11.6%+6.1%
Q1 2024-5.5%-3.0%-4.4%
Q4 2023+0.6%-0.8%+3.3%
Q3 2023-7.4%-4.2%+2.8%
Q2 2023-5.1%-4.6%-10.5%
Q1 2023-3.5%-5.7%-10.5%
Q4 2022+0.1%-0.5%-8.4%
Q3 2022+15.5%+21.5%+33.8%
Q2 2022-1.0%+0.2%+7.8%
Q1 2022-17.4%-15.8%-27.2%
Q4 2021+10.3%+7.7%+16.3%
Q3 2021+9.7%+7.4%+6.1%
Q2 2021+6.8%+6.2%+9.4%
Q1 2021+9.8%+7.4%+4.3%
Q4 2020+6.4%+10.6%+4.0%
Q3 2020+5.0%+13.5%+36.8%
Q2 2020-0.3%-0.5%+24.0%
Q1 2020+3.4%+22.5%+47.0%
Q4 2019-34.0%-46.4%-10.8%
Q3 2019-0.4%-0.7%+5.2%
Q2 2019+4.0%+5.8%-3.2%
Q1 2019-5.9%-4.7%-4.0%
Q4 2018+2.6%+2.3%-1.4%
Q3 2018-4.9%-13.8%-14.0%
Q2 2018+1.0%+0.1%+1.3%
Q1 2018-0.9%-1.0%+4.6%
Q4 2017-4.7%-4.8%-4.6%
Q3 2017+5.4%+8.4%+12.8%
Q2 2017+14.4%+13.4%+14.9%
Q1 2017+1.4%+0.2%+2.8%
Q4 2016+5.7%+7.9%+19.2%
Q3 2016-0.2%-2.7%+7.5%
Q2 2016-0.8%+1.2%+2.9%
Q1 2016-2.0%
Q4 2015+8.4%
Q3 2015+19.1%
Q2 2015+1.9%
Q1 2015+4.8%
Q4 2014+3.8%
Q3 2014+8.4%
Q2 2014-5.6%
Q1 2014+2.4%
Q4 2013+1.9%
Q3 2013-12.8%
Q2 2013+6.5%
Q1 2013+10.8%
Q4 2012-4.1%
Q3 2012+3.9%
Q2 2012-0.8%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q1 2012+2.7%
Q4 2009-4.9%
Q4 2011-4.9%
Q3 2011-5.5%
Q3 2010-5.5%
Q2 2011-3.6%
Q2 2010-3.6%
Q4 2010-3.6%
Q1 2010+10.4%

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