NASDAQ$CLOV

Clover Health Investments Corp. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Clover Health's Q4 2020 financial results were reported, showing revenue growth and increased adoption of the Clover Assistant.

Clover Health reported Q4 2020 financial results, with total revenue reaching $166.2 million and a GAAP MCR of 109.3%. The company experienced a net loss of $81.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $63.4 million. Membership was 58,056 as of December 31, 2020, and lives under Clover Assistant management surpassed 32,400.

  • Total revenue for Q4 2020 reached $166.2 million, compared to $115.3 million in Q4 2019.
  • GAAP MCR for Q4 2020 was 109.3%, compared to 99.8% in Q4 2019.
  • Net loss for Q4 2020 was $81.6 million, compared to $78.7 million in Q4 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q4 2020 was $63.4 million, compared to $59.1 million in Q4 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$166M

Previous: $462M-64.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.20

Previous: -$4.14+95.2%
Capital Expenditures

$63K

Previous: $23K+173.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.19M

Previous: -$160M+99.3%
Net Income

-$81.6M

Previous: -$17.6K-462613.4%
Operating Income

-$67.6M

Previous: -$17.6K-383480.1%
Gross Profit

-$13.7M

Previous: $101M-113.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$92.3M

Previous: $67.6M+36.6%
Total Assets

$267M

Previous: $100K+266230.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.13M

Previous: $3.3M-35.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Clover Health · Revenue · Quarterly

$166M

Q4 2020-64%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 8 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Clover Health · $301M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance Revenue
    $301M+12.4%

Forward guidance

Clover Health provided full year 2021 guidance, expecting Medicare Advantage membership to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021. Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $820 - $850 million, and Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 89% - 91%.

Tailwinds

  • Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020.
  • Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $820 - $850 million, inclusive of a preliminary estimate of approximately $30 to $50 million of revenue generated from Direct Contracting.
  • CMS benchmark expenditures under management for Direct Contracting are expected to be in the range of $0.8 billion to $1.1 billion.
  • Total Medicare spend under management, which includes revenues from the Medicare Advantage program plus the estimated CMS benchmark for Direct Contracting, is expected to be in the range of $1.6 - $1.9 billion.
  • Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 89% - 91%.

Headwinds

  • MCR for Direct Contracting is expected to be approximately 100%, net of savings targets required by CMS.
  • Operating costs are expected to be between $265 and $285 million and reflect the use of a portion of the proceeds from the Merger to make investments in marketing, network expansion and technology to support future growth. These estimates also include extraordinary or nonrecurring costs of approximately $25 million that relate to startup operations of subsidiaries and other one-time legal costs
  • Net loss is expected to be in the range of $(210) - $(170) million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be in the range of $(190) - $(150) million.
  • Loss per share (basic) in the range of $(0.52) - $(0.42).

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.3%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

11 / 24 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.6%+25.9%
Q4 2025-3.2%+0.5%-18.6%
Q3 2025-15.4%-26.1%-26.7%
Q1 2025+11.9%+3.6%-8.8%
Q4 2024-4.1%-7.5%-13.3%
Q3 2024-15.0%-22.9%-22.2%
Q2 2024+9.6%+11.4%+71.6%
Q1 2024+20.9%+13.9%+52.8%
Q4 2023+2.2%+1.1%-9.8%
Q3 2023-15.2%-17.2%-13.0%
Q2 2023+10.3%+19.0%+4.0%
Q1 2023+4.7%+11.2%+10.1%
Q4 2022-2.2%-5.2%-28.3%
Q3 2022-5.8%+11.7%-13.1%
Q2 2022-14.4%+1.2%-23.6%
Q1 2022-11.9%-3.0%-5.2%
Q4 2021+20.1%+33.3%+72.5%
Q3 2021-4.3%-9.0%-40.9%
Q2 2021+7.1%+1.0%+2.1%
Q1 2021-6.7%-7.2%+73.4%
Q2 2020+2.6%+4.3%+37.0%
Q4 2020-3.8%-16.6%-19.6%
Q3 2020+0.3%+0.7%+9.1%
Q4 2019-0.1%-0.2%+10.2%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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