NASDAQ$CLOV

Clover Health Investments Corp. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record revenue and lives under management nearly doubled after launching Direct Contracting.

Clover Health reported a record revenue of $200.3 million for the first quarter of 2021, driven by an increase in membership and the launch of Direct Contracting, which nearly doubled the lives under management to over 130,000. However, the company experienced an increased GAAP MCR of 107.6% due to elevated COVID-related costs, resulting in a net loss of $48.4 million.

  • Total revenue was $200.3 million in Q1 2021, a 21% increase compared to Q1 2020.
  • Medicare Advantage membership was approximately 66,300 as of March 31, 2021, an 18% increase from March 31, 2020.
  • GAAP net loss for the quarter was $(48.4) million compared to $(28.2) million for the first quarter of 2020.
  • Cash, cash equivalents and investments totaled $720.1 million as of March 31, 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$200M

Previous: $166M+21.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.12

Previous: -$0.07-72.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$99K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$48.5M

No prior period
Net Income

-$48.4M

Previous: -$28.2M-71.9%
Operating Income

-$119M

Previous: -$26.6M-347.2%
Gross Profit

-$14.1M

Previous: $19.2M-173.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$405M

No prior period
Total Assets

$867M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$42.7M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Clover Health · Revenue · Quarterly

$200M

Q1 2021+21%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 8 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Clover Health · $301M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance Revenue
    $301M+12.4%

Forward guidance

Clover Health provided financial outlook for full year 2021, including Medicare Advantage membership to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, total revenues are expected to be in the range of $810 - $830 million, and Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(240) - $(190) million.

Tailwinds

  • Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020.
  • For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, the Company expects to end 2021 with between 70,000 - 100,000 total aligned beneficiaries.
  • Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $810 - $830 million, inclusive of a preliminary estimate of approximately $20 - $30 million of revenue generated from Direct Contracting.
  • CMS benchmark expenditures under management for Direct Contracting are expected to be in the range of $700 - $800 million.
  • Total Medicare spend under management is expected to be in the range of $1.5 - $1.6 billion.

Headwinds

  • Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%.
  • MCR for Direct Contracting is expected to be approximately 100%, net of savings targets required by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
  • Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP) is expected to be between $250 and $270 million, reflecting the use of a portion of the proceeds from the Merger to make investments in marketing, network expansion and technology to support future growth.
  • Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(240) - $(190) million.
  • The Company previously expected an accounting adjustment related to the valuation of the embedded derivative features of its convertible securities to result in a positive non-cash income statement impact in its first quarter and full year 2021 financial results, but determined that it would not in fact have this positive income statement impact.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.7%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

11 / 24 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.0%+26.3%+36.3%
Q4 2025-3.2%+0.5%-18.6%
Q3 2025-15.4%-26.1%-26.7%
Q1 2025+11.9%+3.6%-8.8%
Q4 2024-4.1%-7.5%-13.3%
Q3 2024-15.0%-22.9%-22.2%
Q2 2024+9.6%+11.4%+71.6%
Q1 2024+20.9%+13.9%+52.8%
Q4 2023+2.2%+1.1%-9.8%
Q3 2023-15.2%-17.2%-13.0%
Q2 2023+10.3%+19.0%+4.0%
Q1 2023+4.7%+11.2%+10.1%
Q4 2022-2.2%-5.2%-28.3%
Q3 2022-5.8%+11.7%-13.1%
Q2 2022-14.4%+1.2%-23.6%
Q1 2022-11.9%-3.0%-5.2%
Q4 2021+20.1%+33.3%+72.5%
Q3 2021-4.3%-9.0%-40.9%
Q2 2021+7.1%+1.0%+2.1%
Q1 2021-6.7%-7.2%+73.4%
Q2 2020+2.6%+4.3%+37.0%
Q4 2020-3.8%-16.6%-19.6%
Q3 2020+0.3%+0.7%+9.1%
Q4 2019-0.1%-0.2%+10.2%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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