NASDAQ$CGNX

Cognex Corp · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cognex faced challenges due to deterioration of business conditions in industrial markets and reported a decline in both revenue and profitability.

Cognex's Q4 2019 revenue was $169.8 million, a 12% decrease from Q4 2018. Net income was $80.3 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to $45.4 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, in Q4 2018. The effective tax rate was (250)% due to discrete tax items that resulted in a tax benefit of $61 million.

  • Revenue decreased by 12% from Q4-18 and 7% from Q3-19.
  • Gross margin was 74% for Q4-19 compared with 73% for Q4-18 and 74% for Q3-19.
  • The effective tax rate was (250)% in Q4-19, 7% in Q4-18, and 12% in Q3-19.
  • Cognex recorded discrete tax items in Q4-19 that together resulted in a tax benefit of $61 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$170M

Previous: $193M-12.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.11

Previous: $0.26-57.7%
Gross Margin

74.0%

Previous: 73.0%+1.4%
Effective Tax Rate (GAAP)

-250.0%

Previous: 7.0%-3671.4%
Capital Expenditures

$8.23M

Previous: $9.74M-15.5%
Free Cash Flow

$59.7M

Previous: $62M-3.8%
Net Income

$80.3M

Previous: $45.4M+76.9%
Operating Income

$17.6M

Previous: $45.2M-61.1%
Gross Profit

$125M

Previous: $140M-11.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$845M

Previous: $108M+681.2%
Total Assets

$1.89B

Previous: $1.29B+46.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Cognex · Revenue · Quarterly

$170M

Q4 2019-12.2%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Revenue for Q1-20 is expected to be between $155 million and $170 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the mid-70% range, similar to the gross margin reported for Q4-19. Cognex expects operating expenses in Q1-20 to be relatively flat with Q4-19 and to increase by approximately 10% over Q1-19. The effective tax rate is expected to be 19% before discrete tax items compared to 16% in 2019.

Tailwinds

  • Gross margin is expected to be in the mid-70% range, similar to the gross margin reported for Q4-19.
  • Operating expenses in Q1-20 are expected to be relatively flat with Q4-19.
  • Growth in logistics is expected to partially offset the decrease in revenue.
  • Cognex intends to continue to repurchase shares of its common stock, subject to market conditions and other relevant factors.
  • Cognex's financial position as of December 31, 2019 continued to be strong, with $845 million in cash and investments and no debt.

Headwinds

  • Revenue for Q1-20 is expected to be between $155 million and $170 million, a decline from both Q4-19 and Q1-19.
  • Continued weakness in automotive is expected to contribute to the decrease in revenue.
  • The estimated impact of the coronavirus outbreak is expected to contribute to the decrease in revenue.
  • Operating expenses in Q1-20 are expected to increase by approximately 10% over Q1-19.
  • The effective tax rate is expected to be 19% before discrete tax items compared to 16% in 2019.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+36.3%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-22.7%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.8%+5.5%-2.4%
Q4 2025+36.3%+32.7%+11.5%
Q3 2025-12.9%-15.7%-19.7%
Q1 2025+1.9%+1.9%+9.8%
Q4 2024-13.6%-15.8%-19.7%
Q3 2024-0.9%+0.6%-1.5%
Q2 2024-20.0%-24.6%-17.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+12.1%+11.2%
Q4 2023+5.5%+9.1%+12.6%
Q3 2023-0.5%+3.8%+7.9%
Q2 2023-3.2%-4.4%-6.9%
Q1 2023+4.8%+4.6%+20.1%
Q4 2022-14.6%-16.2%-13.7%
Q3 2022+7.7%+9.8%+18.8%
Q2 2022-8.1%-5.1%-15.9%
Q1 2022-20.2%-28.1%-29.4%
Q4 2021+2.5%+0.5%+11.7%
Q3 2021-12.8%-8.2%-17.0%
Q2 2021-4.4%-5.5%-1.9%
Q1 2021-2.9%-6.3%-0.5%
Q4 2020+6.4%+2.4%-8.2%
Q3 2020+1.4%+1.4%+11.7%
Q2 2020+2.1%+3.5%+5.8%
Q1 2020+14.4%+7.4%+29.4%
Q4 2019-2.0%-7.2%-18.7%
Q3 2019-1.0%-0.2%-0.9%
Q2 2019+9.4%-0.3%+2.8%
Q1 2019-8.2%-10.8%-24.1%
Q4 2018+2.8%+4.3%+10.1%
Q3 2018+1.8%+12.9%+3.3%
Q2 2018+15.6%+15.8%+16.3%
Q1 2018-0.2%+2.1%+0.4%
Q4 2017-3.9%-2.8%-4.7%
Q3 2017-1.8%+6.0%+8.3%
Q2 2017+11.1%+5.8%+14.0%
Q1 2017+5.7%+5.5%+7.2%
Q4 2016+9.3%+9.7%+15.4%
Q3 2016+0.2%-1.4%+16.0%
Q2 2016+8.3%+9.5%+10.2%
Q1 2016+15.8%
Q4 2015+6.1%
Q3 2015-9.6%
Q2 2015-22.7%
Q1 2015-0.9%
Q4 2014+8.3%
Q3 2014-3.0%
Q2 2014+13.6%
Q1 2014-0.2%
Q4 2013-7.3%
Q3 2013+5.9%
Q2 2013+4.9%
Q1 2013+5.9%
Q4 2012+1.9%
Q3 2012+2.4%
Q2 2012+4.2%
Q1 2012+4.6%
Q4 2011-4.7%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q2 2011+4.9%
Q1 2010+15.7%
Q1 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010-7.3%
Q4 2008-7.3%
Q3 2009+10.5%
Q3 2010+10.5%
Q2 2009+8.6%
Q4 2009+8.6%
Q2 2010+8.6%

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