NASDAQ$ACGL

Arch Capital Group Ltd. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Arch Capital reported strong Q4 2023 results, marked by a significant net income and operating income growth compared to the previous year.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported a net income of $2.3 billion, or $6.12 per share, a substantial increase from $849 million, or $2.26 per share, in Q4 2022. After-tax operating income was $945 million, or $2.49 per share, compared to $806 million, or $2.14 per share, for the same period last year. The results were impacted by a $1.18 billion net deferred tax asset related to Bermuda's new corporate income tax.

  • Net income available to Arch common shareholders was $2.3 billion, or $6.12 per share.
  • After-tax operating income available to Arch common shareholders was $945 million, or $2.49 per share.
  • Pre-tax current accident year catastrophic losses for the Company’s insurance and reinsurance segments, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, totaled $137 million.
  • Favorable development in prior year loss reserves, net of related adjustments, amounted to $135 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.87B

Previous: $2.76B+40.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.49

Previous: $2.14+16.4%
Loss ratio

49.0%

Previous: 45.0%+8.9%
Combined ratio

78.9%

Previous: 73.5%+7.3%
Net Income

$2.32B

Previous: $850M+173.6%
Operating Income

$945M

Previous: $806M+17.3%
Gross Profit

$3.49B

Previous: $1.74B+100.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$20M

Previous: $7.6M+163.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Arch Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.87B

Q4 2023+40.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Arch Capital · $3.25B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Reinsurance
    $1.54B+54.0%
  • Insurance
    $1.41B+19.0%
  • Mortgage
    $293M+3.9%

Forward guidance

Arch Capital is optimistic about its prospects for 2024, anticipating continued favorable conditions in most of its operating markets.

Tailwinds

  • The company finished 2023 with a 21.6% operating return on equity.
  • Book value per share grew by 43.9% in 2023.
  • Underwriters are leaning into excellent market conditions.
  • The company expects to utilize a $1.18 billion net deferred tax asset over a 10-year period.
  • Growth in net investment income primarily reflected the effects of higher interest rates available in the market, along with growth in invested assets due in part to strong operating cash flows.

Headwinds

  • The company expects to incur and pay increased taxes in Bermuda beginning in 2025.
  • The 2023 fourth quarter loss ratio reflected 3.8 points of current year catastrophic activity, spread across a series of global events, compared to 2.8 points of catastrophic activity in the 2022 fourth quarter for the insurance segment.
  • The 2023 fourth quarter loss ratio reflected 5.4 points of current year catastrophic activity, spread across a series of global events, compared to minimal catastrophic activity in the 2022 fourth quarter for the reinsurance segment.
  • Reduction in net premiums written in the 2023 fourth quarter for the mortgage segment primarily reflected a higher level of premiums ceded, with $17 million of one-time payments related to the termination of eight Bellemeade agreements.
  • On a pre-tax basis, net foreign exchange losses for the 2023 fourth quarter were $59 million, compared to net foreign exchange losses of $81 million for the 2022 fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

36 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-7.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%-3.5%-8.0%
Q4 2025+1.9%+2.4%-1.9%
Q3 2025-1.4%+0.4%+9.8%
Q1 2025-1.9%+0.2%+2.9%
Q4 2024-2.0%-3.6%-1.1%
Q3 2024-6.0%-9.4%-3.9%
Q2 2024-1.3%+1.7%+16.3%
Q1 2024+2.9%+3.9%+11.7%
Q4 2023+4.0%+2.4%+9.3%
Q3 2023+6.5%+5.1%+1.3%
Q2 2023-2.1%-4.5%-8.3%
Q1 2023+1.8%+4.6%-2.2%
Q4 2022+3.2%+5.6%-2.3%
Q3 2022+5.0%+16.8%+19.3%
Q2 2022-2.1%-1.7%+5.1%
Q1 2022+0.5%-1.4%+2.0%
Q4 2021-1.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Q3 2021-2.6%-1.3%-2.9%
Q2 2021-0.1%+1.8%+8.4%
Q1 2021-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q4 2020+2.2%+2.9%+8.3%
Q3 2020+2.6%+8.4%+12.2%
Q2 2020+3.4%+2.8%+7.2%
Q1 2020+2.7%+12.3%+40.0%
Q4 2019+0.6%+1.9%-34.4%
Q3 2019+3.2%+2.8%+3.8%
Q2 2019+3.5%+1.4%+2.9%
Q1 2019+1.7%+2.6%+2.9%
Q4 2018+5.4%+3.9%+7.3%
Q3 2018+6.0%+4.7%+6.0%
Q2 2018-0.9%-1.3%+0.9%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.6%-2.1%
Q4 2017+0.6%+3.4%-2.8%
Q3 2017-1.3%-2.1%-6.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-1.9%-1.7%
Q1 2017+2.0%+1.4%-0.6%
Q4 2016+0.0%+1.1%+2.8%
Q3 2016-1.0%+0.2%+5.5%
Q2 2016+3.7%+4.9%+13.8%
Q1 2016-0.9%
Q4 2015+1.8%
Q3 2015+0.2%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015+0.0%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014-0.2%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+1.6%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012-0.7%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2011+2.5%
Q3 2011-0.2%
Q2 2011-7.7%
Q1 2010+0.8%
Q1 2011+2.7%
Q4 2008+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2009-1.2%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010-0.8%
Q2 2009-0.8%
Q4 2009-0.8%

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