NASDAQ$ACGL

Arch Capital Group Ltd. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Arch Capital reported strong fourth-quarter results driven by growth in net premiums written and underwriting income.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported a net income available to Arch common shareholders of $849.5 million, or $2.26 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to $613.1 million, or $1.58 per share, for the 2021 fourth quarter. After-tax operating income available to Arch common shareholders was $805.9 million, or $2.14 per share, compared to $493.3 million, or $1.27 per share, for the 2021 fourth quarter.

  • Net income available to Arch common shareholders was $849.5 million, or $2.26 per share.
  • After-tax operating income available to Arch common shareholders was $805.9 million, or $2.14 per share.
  • The combined ratio excluding catastrophic activity and prior year development was 82.0%.
  • Book value per common share was $32.62 at December 31, 2022, a 9.9% increase from September 30, 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.76B

Previous: $2.08B+32.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.14

Previous: $1.27+68.5%
Loss ratio

45.0%

Previous: 47.8%-5.9%
Combined ratio

73.5%

Previous: 77.6%-5.3%
Net Income

$850M

Previous: $624M+36.2%
Operating Income

$806M

Previous: $493M+63.4%
Gross Profit

$1.74B

Previous: $7.84B-77.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$855M

Previous: $859M-0.5%
Total Assets

$48B

Previous: $45.1B+6.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.6M

Previous: $14.8M-48.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Arch Capital · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.76B

Q4 2022+32.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Arch Capital · $2.76B total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Insurance
    $1.24B+24.0%
  • Reinsurance
    $1.23B+57.1%
  • Mortgage
    $292M-2.9%

Forward guidance

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” for forward-looking statements. This release or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of the Company may include forward-looking statements, which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance.

Tailwinds

  • The Company’s ability to successfully implement its business strategy during “soft” as well as “hard” markets.
  • Acceptance of the Company’s business strategy, security and financial condition by rating agencies and regulators, as well as by brokers and its insureds and reinsureds.
  • The Company’s ability to consummate acquisitions and integrate any businesses it has acquired or may acquire into its existing operations.
  • The Company’s ability to maintain or improve its ratings, which may be affected by its ability to raise additional equity or debt financings, by ratings agencies’ existing or new policies and practices, as well as other factors described herein.
  • The Company’s ability to successfully enhance, integrate and maintain operating procedures (including information technology) to effectively support its current and new business.

Headwinds

  • General economic and market conditions (including inflation, interest rates, unemployment, housing prices, foreign currency exchange rates, prevailing credit terms and the depth and duration of a recession, including those resulting from COVID-19) and conditions specific to the reinsurance and insurance markets in which the Company operates.
  • Competition, including increased competition, on the basis of pricing, capacity (including alternative sources of capital), coverage terms or other factors.
  • Developments in the world’s financial and capital markets and the Company’s access to such markets.
  • The loss and addition of key personnel.
  • Material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

36 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.5%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-7.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%-3.5%-8.0%
Q4 2025+1.9%+2.4%-1.9%
Q3 2025-1.4%+0.4%+9.8%
Q1 2025-1.9%+0.2%+2.9%
Q4 2024-2.0%-3.6%-1.1%
Q3 2024-6.0%-9.4%-3.9%
Q2 2024-1.3%+1.7%+16.3%
Q1 2024+2.9%+3.9%+11.7%
Q4 2023+4.0%+2.4%+9.3%
Q3 2023+6.5%+5.1%+1.3%
Q2 2023-2.1%-4.5%-8.3%
Q1 2023+1.8%+4.6%-2.2%
Q4 2022+3.2%+5.6%-2.3%
Q3 2022+5.0%+16.8%+19.3%
Q2 2022-2.1%-1.7%+5.1%
Q1 2022+0.5%-1.4%+2.0%
Q4 2021-1.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Q3 2021-2.6%-1.3%-2.9%
Q2 2021-0.1%+1.8%+8.4%
Q1 2021-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q4 2020+2.2%+2.9%+8.3%
Q3 2020+2.6%+8.4%+12.2%
Q2 2020+3.4%+2.8%+7.2%
Q1 2020+2.7%+12.3%+40.0%
Q4 2019+0.6%+1.9%-34.4%
Q3 2019+3.2%+2.8%+3.8%
Q2 2019+3.5%+1.4%+2.9%
Q1 2019+1.7%+2.6%+2.9%
Q4 2018+5.4%+3.9%+7.3%
Q3 2018+6.0%+4.7%+6.0%
Q2 2018-0.9%-1.3%+0.9%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.6%-2.1%
Q4 2017+0.6%+3.4%-2.8%
Q3 2017-1.3%-2.1%-6.2%
Q2 2017-4.5%-1.9%-1.7%
Q1 2017+2.0%+1.4%-0.6%
Q4 2016+0.0%+1.1%+2.8%
Q3 2016-1.0%+0.2%+5.5%
Q2 2016+3.7%+4.9%+13.8%
Q1 2016-0.9%
Q4 2015+1.8%
Q3 2015+0.2%
Q2 2015+3.2%
Q1 2015+0.0%
Q4 2014+0.8%
Q3 2014-0.2%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+1.6%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013+1.3%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012-0.7%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2011+2.5%
Q3 2011-0.2%
Q2 2011-7.7%
Q1 2010+0.8%
Q1 2011+2.7%
Q4 2008+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2009-1.2%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010-0.8%
Q2 2009-0.8%
Q4 2009-0.8%

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