NASDAQ$AAL

American Airlines Group Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record quarterly revenue and net income, driven by strong demand and operational performance.

American Airlines reported a record quarterly revenue of $13.5 billion, a 13% increase over 2019, despite flying 9.6% less capacity. The company achieved a net income of $483 million, or $0.69 per diluted share. They ended the quarter with $14.3 billion in liquidity and continue to reduce debt.

  • Third-quarter net income of $483 million, or $0.69 per diluted share.
  • Record quarterly revenue of $13.5 billion, a 13% increase over the same period in 2019, despite flying 9.6% less capacity.
  • Ended the third quarter with $14.3 billion of total available liquidity, more than double the total available liquidity at year-end 2019.
  • Company continues to execute on its plan to pay down approximately $15 billion of total debt by the end of 2025.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$13.5B

Previous: $8.97B+50.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.69

Previous: -$0.99+169.7%
Yield

$21.19

Previous: $16.55+28.0%
Total Revenue per ASM

$19.63

Previous: $14.68+33.7%
Avg. Fuel Price per Gallon

$3.73

Previous: $2.07+80.2%
Fuel Consumption (gallons)

1.0B

Previous: 941.0M+9.6%
Cost per ASM

$18.28

Previous: $13.70+33.4%
Aircraft at End of Period

1.5K

Previous: 1.4K+3.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$274M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$209M

Previous: $169M+23.7%
Net Income

$483M

Previous: $169M+185.8%
Operating Income

$930M

Previous: $595M+56.3%
Gross Profit

-$4.9B

Previous: -$3B-63.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$332M

Previous: $293M+13.3%
Total Assets

$66.7B

Previous: $68.4B-2.6%

Revenue & EPS history

American Airlines · Revenue · Quarterly

$13.5B

Q3 2022+50.1%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

American Airlines · $13.5B total across 3 segments · Q3 2022

  • Passenger
    $12.4B+55.8%
  • Other
    $787M+15.7%
  • Cargo
    $279M-16.0%

Forward guidance

American Airlines expects its fourth-quarter total revenue to be 11% to 13% higher versus the fourth quarter of 2019 on 5% to 7% lower capacity. The company expects to produce an operating margin of between 5.5% and 7.5% in the fourth quarter. American expects its fourth-quarter 2022 earnings per diluted share to be between $0.50 and $0.70.

Tailwinds

  • Fourth-quarter total revenue to be 11% to 13% higher versus the fourth quarter of 2019
  • Demand trends are positive.
  • Operating margin between 5.5% and 7.5% in the fourth quarter.
  • Fourth-quarter 2022 earnings per diluted share to be between $0.50 and $0.70.
  • Matching forward capacity with the resources required to support its operation.

Headwinds

  • Fourth quarter capacity will be 5% to 7% lower versus the fourth quarter of 2019
  • Current fuel price forecast.
  • Impact of special items.
  • The Company is unable to reconcile certain forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of net special items cannot be determined at this time.
  • Forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and financial position and timing of certain events to differ materially from the information in the forward-looking statements.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 69 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q4 2018

Best reaction

-15.8%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%+1.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-6.6%-8.7%-4.3%
Q3 2025+3.8%+5.1%+6.5%
Q2 2025-2.2%+0.8%-1.5%
Q1 2025+3.1%+6.2%+20.1%
Q4 2024-8.7%-8.1%-18.4%
Q3 2024+2.5%+7.7%+12.1%
Q2 2024+4.4%+5.8%+2.2%
Q1 2024-0.3%-2.9%-0.6%
Q4 2023+8.6%+4.3%+8.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-1.3%+8.2%
Q2 2023-6.3%-10.5%-19.1%
Q1 2023+7.1%+8.1%+12.6%
Q4 2022+1.0%-0.7%-4.3%
Q3 2022-2.0%+2.1%+0.4%
Q2 2022-10.1%-11.7%-6.8%
Q1 2022+3.6%-3.6%-16.5%
Q4 2021-5.8%-1.6%-0.4%
Q3 2021-1.9%-0.7%-1.2%
Q2 2021-0.9%+0.3%-13.6%
Q1 2021+0.5%+3.6%+7.4%
Q4 2020+3.7%+0.2%+26.4%
Q3 2020-1.1%-11.9%-1.7%
Q2 2020+0.3%+3.6%+7.0%
Q1 2020-15.8%-24.7%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.2%-1.5%+1.8%
Q3 2019+9.1%+9.3%+1.4%
Q2 2019-9.7%-11.2%-26.5%
Q1 2019+1.1%+1.5%-12.7%
Q4 2018+10.5%+14.7%+12.1%
Q3 2018+7.0%+14.2%+25.1%
Q2 2018+3.9%+3.5%+1.6%
Q1 2018-4.1%-4.2%-0.8%
Q4 2017-3.1%-4.0%-2.6%
Q3 2017-6.8%-8.2%-4.8%
Q2 2017+0.9%+0.9%-9.5%
Q1 2017-8.1%-5.5%+5.0%
Q4 2016-9.5%-11.2%-6.7%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.3%+13.9%
Q2 2016+2.4%+3.5%+4.4%
Q1 2016-7.5%
Q4 2015+3.3%
Q3 2015+1.0%
Q2 2015-5.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014-8.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014-3.8%
Q1 2014-2.9%
Q4 2013+9.3%
Q3 2013+3.2%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013-1.8%
Q4 2012+9.3%
Q3 2012+2.8%
Q2 2012+1.7%
Q1 2012-1.6%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011-0.2%
Q2 2011-1.6%
Q1 2010-1.5%
Q1 2011-2.1%
Q4 2008-1.6%
Q4 2010-1.6%
Q3 2009+6.5%
Q3 2010+6.5%
Q2 2009+10.4%
Q2 2010+10.4%
Q4 2009+10.4%

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