NYSE$UVE

Universal Insurance Holdings Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Universal Insurance Holdings experienced a challenging quarter, with revenue growth offset by significant pre-tax charges, impacting EPS negatively.

Universal Insurance Holdings reported a 10.6% increase in Q4 total revenue to $239.4 million, but diluted GAAP EPS was $(1.55) and non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $(1.57). The results were affected by prior years' adverse development, reduced subrogation recoveries, current year strengthening, and weather events above plan.

  • Total revenue increased by 10.6% to $239.4 million in Q4 2019.
  • Diluted GAAP EPS was reported at $(1.55) for Q4 2019.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $(1.57) for Q4 2019.
  • Direct premiums written increased by 12.5% year-over-year to $302.7 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$239M

Previous: $216M+10.6%
EPS (adj)

-$1.57

Previous: $0.13-1307.7%
Direct Premiums Written

$303M

No prior period
Net Expense Ratio

29.6%

No prior period
Net Loss Ratio

113.3%

No prior period
Combined Ratio

142.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$1.59M

Previous: $590K+169.7%
Free Cash Flow

$26.4M

Previous: $5.06M+422.0%
Net Income

-$51.1M

Previous: -$6.47M-689.6%
Operating Income

-$69.1M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$239M

Previous: $216M+10.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$182M

Previous: $166M+9.4%
Total Assets

$1.72B

Previous: $1.86B-7.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$13M

Previous: $12.8M+1.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Universal Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$239M

Q4 2019+10.6%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Universal Insurance · $14.7M total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Commission Revenue
    $7.17M
  • Policy Fees
    $4.97M
  • Other Revenue
    $2.6M

Forward guidance

Universal Insurance initiated FY20 guidance with GAAP and non-GAAP adjusted EPS between $2.80 - $3.10, assuming no extraordinary weather events, and a Return on Average Equity of 17% - 20%.

Tailwinds

  • GAAP and Non-GAAP Adjusted EPS in a range of $2.80 - $3.10 (assuming no extraordinary weather events in 2020)
  • Annualized return on average equity in a range of 17% - 20%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.4%

Avg return

30 days after

57%

37 / 65 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-21.4%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-5.0%-5.3%-10.3%
Q4 2025+2.8%+13.9%+5.5%
Q3 2025+11.3%+9.8%+16.5%
Q2 2025-3.1%+0.5%+4.2%
Q1 2025+1.0%+3.6%+12.4%
Q4 2024+9.3%+8.5%+13.8%
Q3 2024-2.0%+2.4%+16.6%
Q2 2024-1.6%+4.0%+8.4%
Q1 2024-3.6%-3.7%-3.4%
Q4 2023+22.0%+18.6%+14.2%
Q3 2023-0.7%+10.3%+18.5%
Q2 2023-5.2%-2.8%-18.7%
Q1 2023-17.0%-13.1%-19.0%
Q4 2022+21.5%+56.1%+47.4%
Q3 2022+1.9%+5.4%+12.8%
Q2 2022+6.8%+6.5%+7.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%+4.2%+5.7%
Q4 2021-3.1%-25.8%-29.0%
Q3 2021+7.6%+8.5%+13.4%
Q2 2021+5.7%+4.9%+9.4%
Q1 2021+2.1%+6.3%+3.8%
Q4 2020+5.2%+3.7%+6.0%
Q3 2020-21.4%-11.6%+4.4%
Q2 2020+2.8%+3.2%+9.9%
Q1 2020+4.4%+1.3%+6.8%
Q4 2019-0.7%+8.3%-22.6%
Q3 2019-7.3%-5.8%-0.5%
Q2 2019-0.4%+5.3%-0.6%
Q1 2019+0.0%-1.1%-5.8%
Q4 2018-15.4%-18.7%-20.0%
Q3 2018-8.3%-8.6%-7.3%
Q2 2018+11.4%+17.5%+20.3%
Q1 2018+3.5%+2.0%+10.3%
Q4 2017+6.9%+3.4%+8.6%
Q3 2017+7.9%+8.5%+10.9%
Q2 2017+0.6%+2.8%-4.2%
Q1 2017+13.8%+13.8%+8.7%
Q4 2016+4.8%+4.2%-8.6%
Q3 2016-5.0%-7.2%+15.6%
Q2 2016+5.4%+3.3%+15.9%
Q1 2016-1.4%
Q4 2015+5.9%
Q3 2015-12.0%
Q2 2015+8.5%
Q1 2015+3.9%
Q4 2014+11.5%
Q3 2014+13.5%
Q2 2014+4.4%
Q1 2014-14.4%
Q4 2013+5.4%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013+6.3%
Q1 2013+4.4%
Q4 2012+4.0%
Q3 2012+3.4%
Q2 2012+1.5%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+2.1%
Q4 2011-11.9%
Q4 2009-11.9%
Q3 2010-10.9%
Q3 2011-10.9%
Q2 2010-10.2%
Q4 2010-10.2%
Q2 2011-10.2%

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