NYSE$TRV

Travelers · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss and core loss per diluted share for the second quarter of 2020.

Travelers reported a net loss of $40 million and a core loss of $50 million for Q2 2020, primarily due to higher catastrophe losses, lower net investment income, and lower net favorable prior year reserve development, partially offset by a higher underlying underwriting gain.

  • Second quarter net loss of $40 million and core loss of $50 million.
  • Catastrophe losses of $854 million pre-tax, compared to $367 million pre-tax in the prior year quarter.
  • Net investment income of $268 million pre-tax, compared to $648 million pre-tax in the prior year quarter.
  • Consolidated combined ratio of 103.7%; underlying combined ratio improved 3.5 points to a strong 91.4%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.4B

Previous: $7.83B-5.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.20

Previous: $2.02-109.9%
Combined Ratio

103.7%

No prior period
Underlying Combined Ratio

91.4%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$40M

Previous: $557M-107.2%
Net Income

-$40M

Previous: $557M-107.2%
Operating Income

-$3M

Previous: $750M-100.4%
Gross Profit

$1.12B

Previous: $1.88B-40.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$623M

Previous: $416M+49.8%
Total Assets

$113B

Previous: $109B+4.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Travelers · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.4B

Q2 2020-5.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Travelers · $7.35B total across 3 segments · Q2 2020

  • Business Insurance
    $3.78B-2.5%
  • Personal Insurance
    $2.84B-1.1%
  • Bond & Specialty Insurance
    $734M+3.4%

Forward guidance

The Company expects to recognize in the third quarter of 2020 favorable prior year reserve development of approximately $400 million, pre-tax and net of expenses and reinsurance, related to the 2017 and 2018 wildfires in California.

Tailwinds

  • Expects to recognize approximately $400 million pre-tax related to PG&E subrogation recoveries in Q3 2020.
  • In Business Insurance, achieved renewal rate change of 7.4%, nearly 4 points higher than the prior year quarter and its highest level since 2013.
  • In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 3% as our domestic management liability business achieved renewal premium change of 7.8%, including record renewal rate change, while retention remained strong.
  • In Personal Insurance, excluding the auto premium refunds, net written premiums increased by 6%, driven by strong retention and new business in both Agency Auto and Agency Homeowners.
  • In our Agency Homeowners business, renewal premium change remained very strong at 7.7%.

Headwinds

  • Second quarter net loss of $40 million and core loss of $50 million.
  • Catastrophe losses of $854 million pre-tax, compared to $367 million pre-tax in the prior year quarter.
  • Net investment income of $268 million pre-tax, compared to $648 million pre-tax in the prior year quarter.
  • Consolidated combined ratio of 103.7%
  • Net written premiums of $7.346 billion, down 1% compared to the prior year quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+11.8%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-6.9%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.4%+0.7%+0.2%
Q4 2025+1.9%+4.5%+13.1%
Q3 2025-2.9%-0.0%+6.6%
Q2 2025-0.3%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025+1.1%-0.0%+9.6%
Q4 2024+3.2%+5.0%+0.4%
Q3 2024+9.3%+6.7%+7.4%
Q2 2024-6.9%-5.8%-1.8%
Q1 2024-5.7%-4.0%-1.5%
Q4 2023+7.8%+6.4%+9.7%
Q3 2023-3.2%-6.0%+1.5%
Q2 2023+1.3%+0.9%-4.7%
Q1 2023+4.2%+4.1%+6.8%
Q4 2022+2.4%-4.4%-5.6%
Q3 2022+2.5%+7.8%+10.7%
Q2 2022-1.1%+1.7%+9.1%
Q1 2022-4.1%-6.5%-8.6%
Q4 2021+1.6%+5.3%+6.6%
Q3 2021+3.8%+6.2%+2.1%
Q2 2021+0.4%-2.2%+5.4%
Q1 2021+1.9%+2.2%+2.9%
Q4 2020+0.6%-0.9%+0.6%
Q3 2020+11.8%+12.6%+19.7%
Q2 2020-3.2%-5.9%-8.5%
Q1 2020+0.0%-0.9%-2.6%
Q4 2019-4.6%-4.9%-4.4%
Q3 2019-6.9%-8.1%-5.1%
Q2 2019-0.6%+0.1%-1.3%
Q1 2019+0.5%+1.6%+8.6%
Q4 2018-0.8%+0.8%+4.7%
Q3 2018-0.3%-2.1%+1.8%
Q2 2018-3.7%-4.0%+0.3%
Q1 2018-3.7%-2.9%-4.8%
Q4 2017+5.9%+7.2%-1.2%
Q3 2017+2.5%+2.4%-0.1%
Q2 2017-1.0%+0.8%+1.1%
Q1 2017-1.1%+0.8%+0.3%
Q4 2016-0.3%+0.1%+3.7%
Q3 2016-6.8%-6.2%-3.8%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.5%+0.4%
Q1 2016-4.3%
Q4 2015-0.5%
Q3 2015+4.1%
Q2 2015+2.6%
Q1 2015-3.9%
Q4 2014+1.9%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+2.0%
Q4 2013-2.2%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q2 2013-3.8%
Q1 2013+1.5%
Q4 2012+1.7%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012-2.0%
Q1 2012+5.5%
Q4 2011+0.9%
Q3 2011+6.0%
Q2 2011+0.9%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q4 2010+2.5%
Q4 2008+2.5%
Q4 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010+0.5%
Q1 2009-3.5%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q3 2008+6.8%
Q3 2009+6.8%
Q4 2007+1.1%
Q2 2008+1.1%
Q2 2009+1.1%

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