NYSE$KO

Coca-Cola · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Coca-Cola's Q4 2020 results reflected resilience amidst the global crisis, with sequential improvement in volume trends and progress in strategic transformation.

Coca-Cola reported a 5% decline in net revenues for Q4 2020, with organic revenues down by 3%. EPS decreased by 29% to $0.34, while comparable EPS grew by 6% to $0.47. The company saw improvement in volume trends compared to prior quarters and made progress on its strategic transformation.

  • Net revenues declined by 5%, and organic revenues decreased by 3%.
  • EPS declined by 29% to $0.34, while comparable EPS grew by 6% to $0.47.
  • Operating income grew by 8%, and comparable currency neutral operating income grew by 14%.
  • The company's value share in total nonalcoholic ready-to-drink (NARTD) beverages was even.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$8.61B

Previous: $9.07B-5.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.47

Previous: $0.44+6.8%
Organic revenue growth

-3.0%

Previous: 7.0%-142.9%
Unit case volume growth

-3.0%

Previous: 3.0%-200.0%
Capital Expenditures

$418M

Previous: $848M-50.7%
Free Cash Flow

$3.21B

Previous: $1.85B+73.1%
Net Income

$1.47B

Previous: $2.07B-28.6%
Operating Income

$2.34B

Previous: $2.16B+8.0%
Gross Profit

$5.03B

Previous: $5.5B-8.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.8B

Previous: $6.48B+4.9%
Total Assets

$87.3B

Previous: $86.4B+1.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$38M

Previous: $55M-30.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Coca-Cola · Revenue · Quarterly

$8.61B

Q4 2020-5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company expects to deliver organic revenue (non-GAAP) percentage growth of high single digits. For comparable net revenues (non-GAAP), the company expects a 2% to 3% currency tailwind based on the current rates and including the impact of hedged positions.

Tailwinds

  • The company expects to deliver organic revenue (non-GAAP) percentage growth of high single digits.
  • For comparable net revenues (non-GAAP), the company expects a 2% to 3% currency tailwind based on the current rates and including the impact of hedged positions.
  • The company's underlying effective tax rate (non-GAAP) is estimated to be 19.5%.
  • The company expects to deliver free cash flow (non-GAAP) of at least $8.5 billion through cash flow from operations of at least $10.0 billion and capital expenditures of approximately $1.5 billion.
  • Given the above considerations, the company expects to deliver comparable EPS (non-GAAP) percentage growth of high single digits to low double digits versus $1.95 in 2020.

Headwinds

  • Comparable net revenues (non-GAAP) are expected to include a minimal currency impact based on the current rates and including the impact of hedged positions.
  • Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) is expected to include an approximate 2% currency headwind based on the current rates and including the impact of hedged positions.
  • The first quarter has five additional days compared to first quarter 2020.
  • This does not include any potential payments related to the ongoing tax litigation with the IRS.
  • The company is not able to reconcile full year 2021 projected organic revenues (non-GAAP) to full year 2021 projected reported net revenues

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

43 / 73 earnings

Positive

+6.1%

Q1 2013

Best reaction

-9.1%

Q4 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.0%+4.2%+6.6%
Q4 2025-1.5%+0.9%-0.5%
Q3 2025+3.7%+1.9%+4.0%
Q2 2025+0.6%-0.6%-3.6%
Q1 2025+0.8%-0.2%-0.4%
Q4 2024+4.7%+6.7%+7.9%
Q3 2024-3.1%-4.0%-8.0%
Q2 2024+1.6%+3.5%+7.0%
Q1 2024-0.2%+0.2%-0.1%
Q4 2023-0.7%-0.5%+1.3%
Q3 2023+3.8%+2.1%+8.0%
Q2 2023+0.3%-0.5%-3.0%
Q1 2023-0.3%+0.2%-4.9%
Q4 2022-1.7%-0.8%-0.5%
Q3 2022+3.2%+5.5%+8.8%
Q2 2022+1.3%+3.2%+4.0%
Q1 2022-0.3%-1.0%-1.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.2%-5.1%
Q3 2021+2.9%+3.1%-1.4%
Q2 2021+1.1%+2.2%+1.5%
Q1 2021+0.9%+1.5%+0.9%
Q4 2020+1.2%+2.0%+1.3%
Q3 2020+1.1%-0.2%+5.4%
Q2 2020+5.1%+5.1%+2.7%
Q1 2020-1.8%-2.4%-2.9%
Q4 2019+2.4%+3.2%-6.2%
Q3 2019+0.8%+1.6%-2.1%
Q2 2019+5.0%+5.8%+6.4%
Q1 2019+1.2%+1.8%+5.2%
Q4 2018-9.1%-10.0%-9.0%
Q3 2018+3.1%+3.3%+5.4%
Q2 2018+2.2%+2.1%+0.8%
Q1 2018-3.5%-1.5%-3.8%
Q4 2017-1.8%-3.2%-2.9%
Q3 2017+0.1%-0.7%-0.6%
Q2 2017+1.9%+1.3%+0.7%
Q1 2017-0.1%-0.3%+4.9%
Q4 2016-3.4%-3.5%+0.6%
Q3 2016-1.0%-0.3%-2.4%
Q2 2016-2.7%-3.2%-3.5%
Q1 2016-6.3%
Q4 2015-0.2%
Q3 2015+2.2%
Q2 2015-0.8%
Q1 2015+0.4%
Q4 2014+2.8%
Q3 2014-6.2%
Q2 2014-3.7%
Q1 2014+4.8%
Q4 2013-4.7%
Q3 2013+0.2%
Q2 2013-0.4%
Q1 2013+6.1%
Q4 2012-3.6%
Q3 2012-1.0%
Q2 2012+1.3%
Q1 2012+0.8%
Q4 2011-0.4%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q2 2011-1.4%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010+2.3%
Q1 2009+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.8%
Q4 2007+0.3%
Q4 2009+0.3%
Q3 2008-0.3%
Q3 2009-0.3%
Q4 2008+1.1%
Q2 2008+1.1%
Q2 2009+1.1%

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