NYSE$EXE

Expand Energy Corp · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Expand Energy reported third quarter results, provided preliminary 2025 capital and operating plan, and announced enhanced capital return framework.

Expand Energy Corporation reported strong third quarter results with net cash provided by operating activities of $422 million and adjusted EBITDAX of $365 million. The company raised its annual synergy target by $100 million and expects to achieve approximately $225 million in synergies in 2025 and approximately $500 million in annual synergies by year end 2027.

  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $422 million.
  • Net loss was $114 million, or $0.85 per fully diluted share; adjusted net income of $22 million, or $0.16 per share.
  • Adjusted EBITDAX was $365 million.
  • Production was approximately 2.65 bcf/d net (100% natural gas).

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$648M

Previous: $1.51B-57.1%
EPS

-$0.85

Previous: $1.09-178.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.02B

Previous: -$1.45B+29.6%
Free Cash Flow

$162M

Previous: $460M-64.8%
Net Income

-$114M

Previous: $70M-262.9%
Operating Income

-$155M

Previous: $79M-296.2%
Gross Profit

$648M

Previous: $1.51B-57.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.04B

Previous: $713M+46.4%
Total Assets

$13.4B

Previous: $14.2B-6.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$10M

Previous: $9M+11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Chesapeake · Revenue · Quarterly

$648M

Q3 2024-57.1%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Chesapeake · $398M total across 1 segment · Q4 2019

  • Natural Gas, Oil and NGL
    $398M—

Forward guidance

Expand Energy expects to achieve approximately $225 million in synergies in 2025 and to achieve the full $500 million in annual synergies by year end 2027. In 2025, at current market conditions, the company expects to run 10 to 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.7 billion yielding an estimated daily production of approximately 7 bcfe per day.

Tailwinds

  • Expected synergies of approximately $225 million in 2025.
  • Targeting $500 million in annual synergies by year end 2027.
  • Plans to run 10 to 12 rigs in 2025.
  • Capital expenditure of approximately $2.7 billion in 2025.
  • Estimated daily production of approximately 7 bcfe per day in 2025.

Headwinds

  • Expects to drop two rigs in the first quarter of 2025.
  • Net loss of $114 million
  • Plans to reduce net debt by $500 million annually
  • Anticipates 75% of remaining free cash flow to be distributed as market conditions warrant
  • Remaining free cash flow would be maintained on the balance sheet

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.9%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

11 / 21 earnings

Positive

+7.9%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-6.8%

Q1 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2025———
Q1 2026+0.9%+3.9%-4.1%
Q4 2025-2.4%+0.4%+4.4%
Q3 2025-6.1%+9.0%+20.7%
Q1 2025-3.3%+0.8%+8.1%
Q4 2024-4.6%-1.7%+8.3%
Q3 2024+3.9%-1.9%+15.8%
Q2 2024-2.0%-6.9%-7.5%
Q1 2024-6.8%-6.8%-3.3%
Q4 2023+6.5%+4.1%+9.6%
Q3 2023+1.5%+4.4%-6.2%
Q2 2023-2.2%+1.2%+4.6%
Q1 2023-6.3%-4.4%-7.4%
Q4 2022-0.5%+6.6%-8.7%
Q3 2022+1.5%-1.4%-0.1%
Q2 2022+1.2%+1.7%+8.4%
Q1 2022+7.9%-4.4%+11.5%
Q4 2021+6.9%+16.4%+34.6%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.0%-7.5%
Q2 2021+5.3%+5.0%+12.0%
Q1 2021-0.2%-1.4%+12.1%
Q4 2020+2.5%+1.9%-1.8%
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