NYSE$BBAI

Bigbear.Ai Holdings Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results.

BigBear.ai reported Q4 2021 revenue of $33.5 million and a net loss of $114.8 million. The company's ending backlog was $465 million, and cash and cash equivalents totaled $68.9 million. The company is looking forward to even more exciting growth opportunities in 2022.

  • Revenue of $33.5 million in the fourth quarter.
  • Gross margin of 11% in the fourth quarter.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted gross margin of 34% for the Analytics segment and 28% for the Cyber & Engineering segment in the fourth quarter.
  • Net loss of $114.8 million in the fourth quarter, reflective of $61 million of stock-based compensation expense from vesting that occurred upon the merger.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$33.5M

Previous: -$28.2M+218.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.70

Previous: -$0.07-900.0%
Capital Expenditures

$44K

Previous: $34K+29.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$17.6M

Previous: -$16.1M-9.3%
Net Income

-$115M

Previous: -$13.1M-774.5%
Operating Income

-$72M

Previous: -$15.1M-375.3%
Gross Profit

$3.83M

Previous: -$4.34M+188.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$68.9M

Previous: $9.7M+610.0%
Total Assets

$383M

Previous: $218M+75.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$60.5M

Previous: -$80K+75761.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Bigbear.Ai · Revenue · Quarterly

$33.5M

Q4 2021-218.7%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 4 of 11 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the year-ended December 31, 2022, the Company is projecting revenue between $175 million and $205 million, including approximately $20 million of commercial revenue and Positive Adjusted EBITDA.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue between $175 million and $205 million
  • Approximately $20 million of commercial revenue
  • Positive Adjusted EBITDA
  • Strategic M&A to make 2022 a transformational year for the company
  • Expect to grow revenue substantially among commercial customers

Headwinds

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected
  • Projections reflect known impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Time between solicitation and contract award increased from 290 days to more than 600 days between 2019 and 2021
  • Cannot predict how the pandemic will evolve or what impact it will continue to have
  • Outlook is based on certain assumptions that are subject to the risk factors discussed in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-10.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-10.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

21%

4 / 19 earnings

Positive

+6.0%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-32.7%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.7%+0.2%+14.4%
Q4 2025-7.1%+3.7%-12.7%
Q3 2025+6.0%+6.1%+18.0%
Q1 2025+0.4%-8.7%+24.6%
Q4 2024-20.5%-22.1%-32.1%
Q3 2024-1.2%+9.3%+77.6%
Q2 2024-11.3%-18.5%+5.3%
Q1 2024-13.4%-14.0%-12.8%
Q4 2023-32.7%-39.0%-49.0%
Q3 2023+1.4%+6.1%+11.6%
Q2 2023-13.1%-7.1%-13.1%
Q1 2023-8.6%-14.7%-24.4%
Q4 2022-13.8%-18.4%+41.9%
Q3 2022-4.6%+0.9%-11.1%
Q2 2022-27.0%-29.9%-52.2%
Q1 2022-20.5%-24.1%-49.3%
Q4 2021-23.8%-26.6%+49.5%
Q3 2021+0.2%+0.1%-15.4%
Q2 2021-0.2%-0.2%+0.1%
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q3 2020

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